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re: The Herd: LeBron Most "Valuable" Player...numbers don't lie
Posted on 5/9/16 at 2:50 pm to slackster
Posted on 5/9/16 at 2:50 pm to slackster
quote:Curry's WORST shooting season (his rookie season) is far better than Lilliard's BEST. Right now he is so far ahead of Lilliard that I don't see any way they are better than the Spurs and maybe even OKC and CLE if they switch the two.
I'm pretty confident that the Warriors would still be the best team in the league if you swapped Lillard and Curry, albeit not to the tune of 73 wins.
3
Posted on 5/9/16 at 2:52 pm to longhorn22
quote:GS was 1-3 in that same timeframe.
NUMBERS DON'T LIE.... Click above... It's from Feb 29th...The Cavs were 3-12 without LeBron since the beginning of the 2014-2015 season? The lost those 12 games by an Avg. of 14.9 points. These Games are when Kyrie and Kevin Love are both on the court....
Posted on 5/9/16 at 2:52 pm to buckeye_vol
Lillard only got thrown into this discussion because an NBA Scout said that...so if NBA scouts believe this, its not that far fetched
Posted on 5/9/16 at 2:52 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:Agreed
Curry's WORST shooting season (his rookie season) is far better than Lilliard's BEST. Right now he is so far ahead of Lilliard that I don't see any way they are better than the Spurs and maybe even OKC and CLE if they switch the two.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 2:55 pm to longhorn22
quote:No that scout is just being an idiot. Lilliard is an above average shooter; Curry is the greatest shooter ever. If a scout thinks that switching those two players would have minimal drop off, then that scout is probably the one who told the Cavs to draft Anthony Bennett or he's just trolling.
Lillard only got thrown into this discussion because an NBA Scout said that...so if NBA scouts believe this, its not that far fetched
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:00 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Well since Curry was about +4 in win shares and estimated wins added, we would expect the Warriors to lose about 4 more games without Curry than the Cavs without LeBron.
Come on, can't we agree that Steph deserves the MVP while simultaneously stating that LeBron brings more to Cleveland, on the whole, than Steph? I know what the advanced stats say, but I also know how they're calculated. Replacing Steph and LeBron with "replacement" players would create a larger percentage drop in wins for the Cavs than the Warriors - there is no doubt in my mind.
That doesn't mean LeBron deserves the MVP, but let's not get carried away with this stuff.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:04 pm to slackster
quote:Probably but that would always create a benefit for a team with a worse record. The best player on the worst team would only need to add a handful of wins to have a similar percentage as Steph and LeBron.
Replacing Steph and LeBron with "replacement" players would create a larger percentage drop in wins for the Cavs than the Warriors - there is no doubt in my mind.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:05 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Curry's WORST shooting season (his rookie season) is far better than Lilliard's BEST. Right now he is so far ahead of Lilliard that I don't see any way they are better than the Spurs and maybe even OKC and CLE if they switch the two.
Yeah but I don't need him to be a better shooter because clearly he isn't. Swapping them would also mean more touches for Klay and Green, and they've proven they're formidable to say the least. You've also got to remember we're not really working on the margins here, meaning as good as Curry is, Lillard is no scrub and GS is more capable than most to be incredibly successful despite the drop in production.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:07 pm to bwallcubfan
quote:
8 pages
Dang...I underplayed this
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:07 pm to slackster
quote:Well the value-added metrics indicate anther from an 8 to a 12.6 win difference. I think 10 wins would be a reasonable expected difference.
but Steph's VORP suggest he is worth 16 more wins than Damian Lillard if the swapped teams
Lilliard seems to be severely overrated right now though.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:08 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Probably but that would always create a benefit for a team with a worse record.
The point is that the better your teammates and team are, the less valuable you are to their current level of success. Raw win shares don't tell the whole story.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:09 pm to bwallcubfan
quote:
Dang...I underplayed this
And it has nothing to do with Harden.
ETA: Could have sworn I saw a thread where someone quoted Harden in the OP and said it would be 8 pages, but apparently that was a different thread.
This post was edited on 5/9/16 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:10 pm to slackster
quote:BUT it's not just that Curry is a better shooter, he's a FAR better shooter. Throw into the fact that Curry is a better ball handler, and probably a marginally better defender (at least equal), AND Lilliard would have to make up the difference in other parts of his game, which there is no evidence of.
Yeah but I don't need him to be a better shooter because clearly he isn't.
Again, Lilliard seems to be overrated right now. I think there may be a recency bias from that last game.
This post was edited on 5/9/16 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:12 pm to slackster
quote:They don't tell the whole story, BUT even when GSW had Mark Jackson, Curry was a better player than Lilliard. Considering Curry has only gotten better as he's entered his prime, and I think that 8 wins is a lower bound above Lilliard.
The point is that the better your teammates and team are, the less valuable you are to their current level of success. Raw win shares don't tell the whole story.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:12 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Again, Lilliard seems to be overrated right now. I think there may be a recency bias from that last game.
I'm not really hung up on Lillard one way or the other, I just think the rest of the Warriors are underrated, kind of like Pippen taking over when MJ left. I think Klay and Green have proven that they can do more when asked, so the gap for Lillard to fill wouldn't be as big as it appears on the surface.
ETA:For instance, Green's PER has improved to 22.3 from 19.3 in the regular season, and his WS/48 has improved from .190 to .250 in the playoffs as well. Thompson's PER has improved to 23.1 from 18.6 and his WS/48 has improved from .144 to .230.
They're pretty damn good without Steph.
This post was edited on 5/9/16 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:14 pm to slackster
quote:Sure and 60 to 65 wins would be a great season. It's just a big difference from the historically great 73 win season.
I'm not really hung up on Lillard one way or the other, I just think the rest of the Warriors are underrated, kind of like Pippen taking over when MJ left. I think Klay and Green have proven that they can do more when asked, so the gap for Lillard to fill wouldn't be as big as it appears on the surface.
This post was edited on 5/9/16 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:14 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:NO
Again, Lilliard seems to be overrated right now
he didn't even make the All Star game and lead a team of scrubs to the 5 seed. 
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:18 pm to slackster
quote:no one is underrating them. they are both top 15/10 players in the world. but theres a BIG difference from being a team that would still win about 60-65 games and a team that broke a record that no one thought would ever be broken
ust think the rest of the Warriors are underrated, kind of like Pippen taking over when MJ left. I think Klay and Green have proven that they can do more when asked
This post was edited on 5/9/16 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:25 pm to WestCoastAg
quote:
but theres a BIG difference from being a team that would still win about 60-65 games and a team that broke a record that no one thought would ever be broken
I'm not contending they're a 73 win team with Lillar, I'm just saying I believe they're still the best in the league this year.
Posted on 5/9/16 at 3:29 pm to slackster
even though i dont necessarily agree, even if they were, it still doesnt mean that steph isnt more valuable than lebron. just because the warriors have a tremendous team that could win without steph, it doesnt take away that steph does bring more value than any single player in the world.
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