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MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
3517 posts

The Army Navy Game Betting
Army is -6.5 at home versus navy. The moneyline as of earlier today was -265.

This just seems like a gift from the gambling gods. Army is way way way WAY better than Navy this year. They should win by two touchdowns.

Unless, of course, somebody knows something that I don't. Does anyone know something about this game that I don't?

You friend in degeneracy,
MV


HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
16587 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
PRIDE... talent doesn't mean much... obviously schemes don't mean shite.

Navy has the better coach.

If the line gets to 7, take the points and run.


alajones
LSU Fan
Derptown
Member since Oct 2005
28141 posts
 Online 

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
O/U has to right around 40. These are usually low scores.


Ha ha, just looked it up, it’s 41.
This post was edited on 12/3 at 2:45 pm


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PeteRose
LSU Fan
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
6806 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
under


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00
tzimme4
Chicago Cubs Fan
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
19148 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
Navy hung around with Notre Dame, UCF and Tulane this season. They probably aren't the better team this season but it wouldn't surprise me if it's a one score game.


Winston Cup
5x SB Champion Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
23692 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
navy played a much harder schedule and is almost identical on paper. the triple option is familiar to both. im not so sure army is the better team by much if at all.

navys last 7 they played 6 bowl teams. army played 4 bowl teams all year

temple
houston
notre dame
cinci
ucf
tulsa
tulane


MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
3517 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
quote:

navy played a much harder schedule and is almost identical on paper.


I'll agree that Navy had a more difficult schedule. Whether or not it was "much harder" is up for debate. A quick glance at a couple SOS rankings shows the discrepancy to be not significant. But it's the second part is what I wanna focus on as I do not believe it to be a statement soaked with veracity.

Navy is 3-9 with one of those wins being over Lehigh. Their best win and performance of the season was in week 2 against Memphis where they won 22-21.

Army is 9-2 with their only losses being road games against Duke and Oklahoma, the latter being a loss in overtime against a team that got into the CFP.

Moreover, they have common opponents.

Hawaii: Army won 28-21. Navy lost 59-41.
Air Force: Army won 17-14. Navy lost 35-7

By my unofficial count Army is +56 over Navy against common opponents.

Additionally, Army just has more impressive performances than Navy. Army beat the best team in the MAC 42-13. Buffalo almost certaily would have beaten Navy. Army also got a very nice overtime win over Hipster Miami with their backup QB. The next week the starter, Kelvin Hopkins, returned and they beat yet another top MAC team by a comfortable margin.

Fwiw, the computers like Army as well:
FPI: 69, 99
Sagarin: 53, 106
Teamrankings: 53, 94

S&P has them the closest of any I've seen: 83, 102



quote:

the triple option is familiar to both.


I actually like this aspect. When two teams do basically the exact same thing but one does it better, I find it tougher to make an argument for the inferior team. This is actually most true in tennis, but I think it's true in football to a certain extent as well.




MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
3517 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
quote:

Navy hung around with Notre Dame, UCF and Tulane this season.


Tulane isn't particularly good at football, though.

And methinks you have a somewhat loose definition of "hung around".


tzimme4
Chicago Cubs Fan
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
19148 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
Navy had the lead in the final minutes so hung around counts here.


BoatSchoolTiger
Navy Fan
Houston, TX
Member since May 2013
636 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
quote:

Hawaii: Army won 28-21. Navy lost 59-41.

This is a tough one. Navy played the game at Hawaii at midnight Navy time.
Hawaii played the game at West Point 5 am Hawaii time.

This loss is exactly why teams that travel to Hawaii are allowed an additional home game.




Army is considerably better than Navy this year after watching them both all season, which it pains me to say, however it is Army-Navy. One side runs through Bancroft Hall squaring their corners yelling Go Navy, Sir or Beat Army, Sir (every day of the year). The other lives for whatever nonsense they chant: Army Rocket Cheer


Don't think it is easy money...

Go Navy! Beat Army!


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TH03
Iowa State Fan
Dallas
Member since Dec 2008
140711 posts
 Online 

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
It’s at 7 on 5dimes.

I found my old account with $50 still in it. Doubled it yesterday on the chiefs/raiders over. Just put it all on navy +7.


mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Member since Nov 2015
18165 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
It would be +10.5 Navy if Navy didn't seem to always play up in this game and have Army's #.

Vegas is setting odds for the betting general public (25-40) which seemingly lived most of their adult life with Navy's 14-game winning streak from 2002 through 2014.


navy
Navy Fan
Bannedeville, SC
Member since Sep 2010
22665 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
If y'all are so damn smart...then load up on The Woops.


Other than friendly wagers, typically for booze...I would never, ever bet money on this game.

Beat Army.


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MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
3517 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
quote:

Navy had the lead in the final minutes so hung around counts here.


Against who?


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MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
3517 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
quote:

Don't think it is easy money...


I prefer rivalry games.


Roger Klarvin
Texas A&M Fan
Central Texas
Member since Nov 2012
39982 posts
 Online 

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
It’s a rivalry game between two teams that run the triple option. No smart gambler touches games like this.


MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
3517 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
I'm not saying it's a sure thing -- I mean, they call it gambling for a reason -- but I just like the number that I got. Way lower than I expected. I thought it would be 10 or 11.


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MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
3517 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
quote:

It’s a rivalry game between two teams that run the triple option. No smart gambler touches games like this.


Amazing analysis.


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mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Member since Nov 2015
18165 posts

re: The Army Navy Game Betting
quote:

I would never, ever bet money on this game.


Unless you were a Navy fan from 2002-1014...then you'd be crazy not to bet.

Army stunk.

Navy was way ahead of the curve...playing way better than a Service Academy like Air Force in the 90's.

Army played like a service Academy.

Rivalry games are prime pickings. Line is low because of thoughts like yours...even though one team is so superior.

People could have made a lot of money on Navy in the 2000's the lines were bad and the games weren't close.

Military Academies, rivalry game...has so much emotion that the lines just are never accurate...Vegas just doesn't overcompensates for the underdog in this game - always.

Army's resume is 10X better than Navy's...and Army won the last two...but this is the first time Army has been favored over Navy since 2001.

There is so much Navy perception, nobody watches the service academies play a single down but for this game...and all people know is Navy has dominated.

That's precisely why the line is so low despite Army on paper being a 10.5 - 14.5 favorite.
This post was edited on 12/4 at 1:42 am


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