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Started By
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Sports betting 3/26
Posted on 3/26/23 at 11:47 am
Posted on 3/26/23 at 11:47 am
Haven’t locked in anything but these are my leans so far
Ncaa basketball
Texas ML + SDSU +4.5
Xfl
Brahmas +3
Roughnecks +2.5
Ncaa basketball
Texas ML + SDSU +4.5
Xfl
Brahmas +3
Roughnecks +2.5
2
Posted on 3/26/23 at 12:09 pm to justaniceguy
Something worth note in game 1.
SDSU is 20-0 vs teams with 3pt Attempt% in the top 150.
And 67-5 in last 4 years.
.
Not losing to a top 30 3pt Att% team at all over that span (16-0)
Winning by 9 in 14/16
Allowed 60 or less in half
67 or less in 13/16
.
Creighton currently 46th.
SDSU is 20-0 vs teams with 3pt Attempt% in the top 150.
And 67-5 in last 4 years.
.
Not losing to a top 30 3pt Att% team at all over that span (16-0)
Winning by 9 in 14/16
Allowed 60 or less in half
67 or less in 13/16
.
Creighton currently 46th.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 12:19 pm to adamau
That is definitely notable. My lean is definitely on SDSU and cover and probably win.
HOWEVER
Based on sharp money it’s looking like they think the likely outcome is creighton covers and Miami covers. Take that as you will.
If SDSU covers and or wins I will be probably betting texas spread. If creighton covers I will probably be betting Miami spread.
HOWEVER
Based on sharp money it’s looking like they think the likely outcome is creighton covers and Miami covers. Take that as you will.
If SDSU covers and or wins I will be probably betting texas spread. If creighton covers I will probably be betting Miami spread.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 12:42 pm to justaniceguy
Even if I run the numbers without the massive rebounding edge SDSU shows over last 3 games and use totally even possessions, I get SDSU by 2. I'm gonna roll with the Aztecs here. Creighton may speed them up and shoot them out of the gym, but Im gonna take a shot in the value here.
ETA: where I look, I see Creighton getting 57% handle, so the line move is in direction with the money, but move may be heavy. Miami is reverse with Texas taking over 50%
ETA: where I look, I see Creighton getting 57% handle, so the line move is in direction with the money, but move may be heavy. Miami is reverse with Texas taking over 50%
This post was edited on 3/26/23 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 3/26/23 at 12:49 pm to adamau
What are you using for splits?
This is what action has
Creighton spread 55% public 83% $$
Miami spread 46% public 57% $$
This is what action has
Creighton spread 55% public 83% $$
Miami spread 46% public 57% $$
Posted on 3/26/23 at 12:49 pm to justaniceguy
I don’t quite get that last paragraph, the two games are completely independent of each other.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 12:51 pm to TheWalrus
It is the only thing that has been making me money this March from basketball. I have hit multiple +200 +300 MLs doing this. Today could be the day it fails but I doubt it. Both favorites won’t cover and both dogs don’t cover IMO
This post was edited on 3/26/23 at 12:52 pm
Posted on 3/26/23 at 12:56 pm to justaniceguy
I just use VSIN that tracks total splits. Doesn't show "public" vs sharp. I just tend to consider reverse when line moves against handle.
To me Creighton is taking 57% so should have some move off the 1.5 open, probably not the whole point, which is likely coming from a large sharp bet somewhere.
Bought a little extra safety just in case and went to 3.5
To me Creighton is taking 57% so should have some move off the 1.5 open, probably not the whole point, which is likely coming from a large sharp bet somewhere.
Bought a little extra safety just in case and went to 3.5
This post was edited on 3/26/23 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 3/26/23 at 1:37 pm to adamau
If there is a lot more $$ % than there is public % then it is likely sharp betters. At least for spread.
I settled on San Diego state ML + Texas ML parlay. I think San Diego state will win or creighton will blow them out
I settled on San Diego state ML + Texas ML parlay. I think San Diego state will win or creighton will blow them out
Posted on 3/26/23 at 4:07 pm to justaniceguy
Gambling can be funny. Ice cold one week then hot the next. For me terrible luck last week with the first two rounds of the tourney. But this weekend (starting Thursday evening) the tables have turned.
6-0 so far. Just hit with SD St+3.5
Got a chance for the clean sweep with the Canes+5.
6-0 so far. Just hit with SD St+3.5
Got a chance for the clean sweep with the Canes+5.
Posted on 3/26/23 at 6:08 pm to justaniceguy
Snagged the Canes +10.5 right before the comeback, hopefully they can hang tough
ETA: damn, shoulda had the balls to take ML
ETA: damn, shoulda had the balls to take ML
This post was edited on 3/26/23 at 6:23 pm
Posted on 3/26/23 at 8:57 pm to justaniceguy
Ok I see, it’s just kind of a law of averages thing. I don’t think really think there’s much validity tying two totally unrelated games being played on the same day together. If the result of one impacted the other then maybe. But whatever works
This post was edited on 3/26/23 at 8:58 pm
Posted on 3/26/23 at 9:58 pm to justaniceguy
Thanks for the SDSU stats. Made me a few coins this afternoon. Now just waiting on Iowa to close this parlay - Lady Tigers already did their part.
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