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Message
re: Official Wk 4 College FB Bet Thread (Swiggety Swooty, I'm Commin for that Booty)
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:35 pm to accnodefense
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:35 pm to accnodefense
Didn't you have an over that was 100% last week? Did it hit?
2
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:42 pm to thibtigerfan
quote:
Sorry, first time reading your model. Are you using the cover number at the bottom to get the percentage?
Also what is accuracy for 60-80% cover numbers?
The bottom of the page is one of the 5 prediction methods I use. It's the only one that outputs a cover percentage.
So far anything over 81.5% is 13-2 on the year.
Anything over 77% is over 53% for the year, not sure of the exact number
60-76% is danger zone territory and will probably be until Week 7 or so.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:42 pm to LSUShock
quote:
Didn't you have an over that was 100% last week? Did it hit?
Yes - Georgia State/Oregon - and yes it went over
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:42 pm to LSUShock
Yes he had oregon at 100 n it hit early in 4th quarter.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:48 pm to Daddy'sHERE
Can you post your highest % to cover. Whether it's o/u or spread. Sorry at the plant. Signal sucks here. Can't load pics.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 9:49 pm to Daddy'sHERE
Updated Card:
Oregon State +15
Virginia +3
Cincinnati +10
Purdue +3
aTm -6.5
Oregon State +15
Virginia +3
Cincinnati +10
Purdue +3
aTm -6.5
Posted on 9/23/15 at 10:00 pm to bloupe2
quote:
Can you post your highest % to cover. Whether it's o/u or spread. Sorry at the plant. Signal sucks here. Can't load pics.
Charlotte/Florida Atlantic Over 63 is at 91.7% (Careful with Charlotte - their numbers are more unstable than other teams because they are brand new)
West Virginia at -16.5 is 89.4%
Appalachian State/ODU over 58.5 is 88.2%
Texas Tech at +7.5 is 81.6%
TCU/Texas Tech Over 79 is at 81.3%
That's it for over 80% this week.
Here are numbers that aren't over 80%, but they were sides I liked before I ran my sheets, and my sheets confirmed what I thought about the sides that they were good plays:
UL Lafayette -8.5 (69.7%)
Ball State +18.5 (61.2%)
Washington +4.5 (62.2%)
UTSA +9 (62.2%)
San Jose State -4.5 (59.1%)
Duke +9.5 (55%)
Syracuse +24.5 (68.1%)
Northern Illinois +4 (62.0%)
Texas +3 (55.8%)
Rice +34.5 (68%)
Oregon State +15.5 (53.5%)
Arkansas +7.5 (60%)
Arizona +3.5 (66.7%)
East Carolina +8.5 (65.3%)
The winning ticket so far for all 5 of my prediction methods has been home dogs. All of the methods are doing at least 57.5%. The 1000 simulation method at the bottom is picking home dogs at 62%, 18-11 on the season. Washington, UTSA, Duke, Syracuse, Texas, Oregon State, Arizona and East Carolina are the home dogs its picking this week.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 10:02 pm to accnodefense
ULL plays La Tech next week
Posted on 9/23/15 at 10:10 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Thanks brother. I saw a stat you posted early, can't find it. Plant service stinks here. Your record for over 80%?
Nvm just saw. Wow that's legit.
Nvm just saw. Wow that's legit.
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 9/23/15 at 10:13 pm to accnodefense
Rundown on how method 5(1000 Simulations) has done this year so far and what is profitable.
Small = 0 to 6.5
Mid = 7 to 14
Large = 14.5+
Minimal = Model projection is 3 points or less off the posted line (i.e. model says Team A wins by 3, posted line is Team A -2, therefore my model is 1 point off the posted line)
Medium = Model projection is 3.5-6.5 points off the posted line(i.e. model says Team A wins by 10, posted line is Team A -4.5, therefore my model is 5.5 points off the posted line)
High = Model projection is 7-9.5 points off the posted line
Mega = Model projection is 10-14.5 points off the posted line
Super = Model projection is 15+ points off the posted line. Has only happened 4 times this year, 3-1 with the lone loss being Florida Atlantic vs. Miami.
Sides - (Overall 64-71 for the year)
Dogs between +7 and +14 are 28-14 (66.7%) on the year
Home Dogs are 18-11 (62.1%)
Small = 0 to 6.5
Mid = 7 to 14
Large = 14.5+
Minimal = Model projection is 3 points or less off the posted line (i.e. model says Team A wins by 3, posted line is Team A -2, therefore my model is 1 point off the posted line)
Medium = Model projection is 3.5-6.5 points off the posted line(i.e. model says Team A wins by 10, posted line is Team A -4.5, therefore my model is 5.5 points off the posted line)
High = Model projection is 7-9.5 points off the posted line
Mega = Model projection is 10-14.5 points off the posted line
Super = Model projection is 15+ points off the posted line. Has only happened 4 times this year, 3-1 with the lone loss being Florida Atlantic vs. Miami.
Sides - (Overall 64-71 for the year)
Dogs between +7 and +14 are 28-14 (66.7%) on the year
Home Dogs are 18-11 (62.1%)
Posted on 9/23/15 at 11:51 pm to accnodefense
Right now I'm on Texas +3, TCU -6.5, and Tennessee +1. May add Arkansas as well.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 12:04 am to LSUShock
Locked:
TCU -7
Still waiting on Arkansas
TCU -7
Still waiting on Arkansas
Posted on 9/24/15 at 12:21 am to oleyeller
Tennessee +2
ULM +38
Michigan -5.5
Georgia Tech -7.5
West Virginia -17
Appalachian St vs Old Dominion 56.5 over
Credit to ACCnodefense as those last 2 picks were made based on your results. I chose to pass on the over for TCU/TT as its at 80.5 on the site that i use.
ULM +38
Michigan -5.5
Georgia Tech -7.5
West Virginia -17
Appalachian St vs Old Dominion 56.5 over
Credit to ACCnodefense as those last 2 picks were made based on your results. I chose to pass on the over for TCU/TT as its at 80.5 on the site that i use.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 6:06 am to Pocket Kingz
Why you going with cincy dcrew?
Posted on 9/24/15 at 7:41 am to accnodefense
Any thoughts on South Alabama (+17) at home against NC State?
Posted on 9/24/15 at 7:42 am to bloupe2
tn +1.5
cincy +10
mich -5.5
arky +7.5
will add 2-4 more later
cincy +10
mich -5.5
arky +7.5
will add 2-4 more later
Posted on 9/24/15 at 7:53 am to Benny The Jet
Also, would you consider West Virginia a let down candidate against Maryland (+17) playing at home before traveling to Oklahoma next week? I know Maryland has not looked great this year though.
Posted on 9/24/15 at 7:53 am to oleyeller
quote:
cincy +10
mich -5.5
arky +7.5
Posted on 9/24/15 at 7:58 am to oleyeller
Why everyone liking cincy +10
Posted on 9/24/15 at 8:02 am to maclauer
quote:
Current card:
UMass +29
App St -7.5
Mizzou +3
Arkansas +7.5 (-120)
Duke +8.5
Auburn -2.5
SDSU +15
Added Washington +4.5 and Kansas +13 to these.
Still watching UVA, Purdue, Florida, Wake and USA.
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