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Official NCAA tourney betting thread

Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:48 pm
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12059 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:48 pm
LSU opens -8
UC Irvine only getting 5.5
Posted by zzgobucky
Madison
Member since Sep 2016
1738 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:49 pm to
Will go hard on Marq -4.5
Posted by zzgobucky
Madison
Member since Sep 2016
1738 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:50 pm to
And Wisc -2. Not that high on them this year but they own Oregon in the NCAAT the past few years
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12059 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:51 pm to
I like that. I think Vermont can keep it within 11 but FSU’s depth may be too much.
Posted by The Funnie Five
Bluffington
Member since Feb 2019
3404 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:52 pm to
Irvine is good. I stayed up late last night to watch them. Well coached. Good senior player Robert Cartwright, they also have size. Very good defensively

Without Dean Wade, Kansas State could have trouble.
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12059 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:53 pm to
Yeah I expect Irvine to beat KState but I was hoping for a few more points
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25270 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:54 pm to
Northeastern whatever the number against Kansas.

Liberty and Florida also.
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12059 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:56 pm to
I think Abilene can keep it within 22 of Kentucky too if they are hitting 3s
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 6:59 pm to
I’d take Yale +8 and the over. The first who knows but the over will hit.
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12059 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 7:00 pm to
I don’t play a lot of overs in the tourney. Teams tend to lock down on defense a lot more than the regular season. Lots of first half unders for me.
Posted by BigBoyTiger
Cleveland
Member since Aug 2005
9578 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 7:01 pm to
Yale and LSU are 210+ in total defense. It’s going to be a shite show. Obviously, if the number is crazy I won’t touch. But tbd.
Posted by zzgobucky
Madison
Member since Sep 2016
1738 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 7:05 pm to
First half unders and second half overs are the way to go
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
12707 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 7:23 pm to
quote:

First half unders and second half overs are the way to go



agreed. I've seen games with 20 points scored in the last 2 minutes just due to all the fouling.
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
155263 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 7:30 pm to
Barely realized Abilene is D1 nowadays.
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
70674 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 8:26 pm to
Been looking at past 15-2 and 14-3 upsets but I can't find a pattern yet. I was hoping there would be some kind of warning sign to fade the high seed, like laying an egg in the conference tourney or having a low ranking in a box score stat, but so far nothing.

As an example, there have been eight 15-2 upsets. Two of the victims were one and done in the conference tourney, three went 1-1, two won the conference tournament, and one didn't have a conference tourney. So I can't go with "fade a first round loser" OR "don't bet against a 2 if they won the conference tournament".

None of them appeared to have a bad last 10 games either, which makes sense because it would have knocked them to a lower seed. I'm going to check how each team did the previous year. Also going to see if experience is a tell, but average experience isn't listed in the early 1990s. (I'm using sports preference.com).

I'd like to roll the dice on a parlay of 2 or 3 major upsets. But I want to make an educated gamble and not just wing it.
Posted by Zendog
Santa Barbara
Member since Feb 2019
4457 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 8:31 pm to
I would think best 15-2 upset possibility would be young 2 seed playing #15 seed of veteran starters.
Posted by Keys Open Doors
In hiding with Tupac & XXXTentacion
Member since Dec 2008
31888 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 8:37 pm to
UC-Irvine, Murray State, and Belmont/Temple are all high seeds I’m taking. As much as I like those squads, my picks are more based on the opponents.

K-State has an injury concern, Maryland is underwhelming and Marquette has been slumping.
Posted by The Funnie Five
Bluffington
Member since Feb 2019
3404 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

Bestbank Tiger



Can't tell you much about Santa Clara or Richmond as I was too young to watch those.

But I am old enough to remember the rest.

South Carolina was a weak 2 seed in 1997 and very overseeded. Coppin State was an upperclassmen led team with two players, Terquin Mott and Andre Brockington that created a good inside out combo. Contrary to what people usually think about upsets like this, Coppin State won by being the more physical team. They only went 2-13 from 3. But they got to the line 39 times and outrebounded South Carolina by 10.

Hampton was able to beat a fading Iowa State team. They got beat by a bad Baylor team in the Big 12 quarterfinal and were missing Marcus Fizer from the year before. Jamal Tinsley tried to do too much. They got up 11 on Hampton with 5 minutes to go but Hampton closed on a 12-0 run to win. Hamtpon had a guy inside named Tarvus Williams who was a good weapon and played the last 8 minutes with 4 fouls and didn't foul. Hampton was more athletic than Iowa State was.

Norfolk State over Missouri was a huge shocker and the biggest all time 1st round upset according to point spread but it exposed Missouri as a team with a weakness at forward. They were very guard heavy but Norfolk State was the bigger team inside with O'Quinn(NBA player). Norfolk had a good non conference run for a MEAC team, beating teams like TCU(NIT) and Drexel(last team out that year) and barely losing to Marquette(3 seed). Norfolk shot out of their minds in this game though, 54% from the floor and 52% from 3 and were just able to keep up all game.

Lehigh over Duke wasn't that surprising. I had watched Lehigh leading up and knew McCollum was good. Duke was way too reliant on the jump shot and just had roster/locker room issues going into the game.

FGCU over Georgetown was an example of a senior laden team being able to force Georgetown to play at a pace they didn't want to. This one was more of FGCU playing well than Georgetown playing bad. Georgetown was able to win a good Big East in the regular season and just got put out of their comfort zone. Ohio did the same exact thing to them 3 years earlier.

Middle Tennessee simply outshot Michigan State. This one was also a shock because Michigan State came in on fire, winning the Big 10 and Big 10 tourney and many had them going all the way. I don't think Michigan State came ready to play. MTSU jumped out to a 15-2 lead from the start and was able to hang on and hit big shots each time Michigan State made a run. I think this result was the end result of Michigan State letting the hype get to their heads and an MTSU team with far more talent than a typical 15 seed has and was underseeded - should have been a 14 instead of UW Green Bay.

Recap

South Carolina was overseeded

Iowa State was fading

Missouri was lacking size and frontcourt play

Duke was too reliant on jump shots and had some roster issues and locker room issues

Georgetown had to force teams to play at their pace to win

Michigan State overlooked their opponent who shot lights out

Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
70674 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

Georgetown had to force teams to play at their pace to win


Thanks

Would have to go back to my laptop to be sure, but I think Georgetown had a low number of points scored and a low number of points allowed per game. I just figured that meant they ran a ball control offense.

15-2 is a long shot so my goal was to see if there's a way to identify overseeded 2s or undervalued 15s. If I can narrow it down it might be worth taking a low risk, high reward flyer on them.

Haven't worked my way through the 14-3 upsets yet.
Posted by SeeeeK
some where
Member since Sep 2012
28021 posts
Posted on 3/17/19 at 9:36 pm to
quote:

Bracket Tip: Be on the lookout for No. 2 seeds who’ve won six or fewer of their last 10 games.

There have been 13 instances of this since 1997, and a whopping NINE of them have lost in the second round! Both Michigan and Tennessee are 6-4 in its last 10 games.
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