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Here are the true CFB national championship contenders based on FEI metrics
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:28 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:28 pm
I posted it on the SEC Rant but I think it's more fitting for the MSB.
A team has to be a borderline top 10 OFEI offense. OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
Here are the OFEI ratings of the CFB national champions over the last 10 years.
2016 Clemson- 6
2015 Alabama- 11
2014 Ohio State- 3
2013 Florida State- 12
2012 Alabama- 5
2011 Alabama- 11
2010 Auburn- 1
2009 Alabama- 5
2008 Florida- 3
2007 LSU- 3
Every CFB national championship was ranked in the top 12 in offensive FEI over the last 10 seasons.
A team has to be a top 10 DFEI defense. DFEI is defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced.
Here are the DFEI ratings of the CFB national champions over the last 10 years.
2016 Clemson- 9
2015 Alabama- 1
2014 Ohio State- 16
2013 Florida State- 5
2012 Alabama- 4
2011 Alabama- 1
2010 Auburn- 8
2009 Alabama- 1
2008 Florida- 1
2007 LSU- 6
Every team except 2014 Ohio State finished in the top 10 in DFEI the year they won the NC. 2014 was a weird year. Out of the four CFB playoff teams, none of them finished ranked top 10 in DFEI. Alabama had the best DFEI ranking out of the bunch (#12). 15 out of the 20 national championship finalists finished top 10 in DFEI. The other exceptions were 2007 Ohio State who got blown out in the NC game, 2008 Oklahoma (historically great offense), 2012 Notre Dame (blown out in NCG) and 2014 Oregon (blown out in NCG). So only 2008 Oklahoma and 2014 Ohio State really came close to winning a national championship with a less than great defense and '08 Oklahoma had the highest scoring offense of all-time. That tells me Ohio State winning a championship with a DFEI outside the top 10 was sort of a fluke.
Here are the teams that are ranked in the top 10 in DFEI and ranked in the top 15 in OFEI.
Georgia- #5 OFEI and #1 DFEI
Notre Dame- #4 OFEI and #7 DFEI
Ohio State- #2 OFEI and #6 DFEI
Washington- #11 OFEI and #5 DFEI
Alabama- #8 OFEI and #3 DFEI
Ohio State lost two games in pretty sound fashion so I consider them pretty much eliminated from CFP contention. That leaves the following teams:
Georgia- #5 OFEI and #1 DFEI
Notre Dame- #4 OFEI and #7 DFEI
Washington- #11 OFEI and #5 DFEI
Alabama- #8 OFEI and #3 DFEI
Those are your national championship contenders. There is one team that could join that mix though. Clemson is ranked 21st in OFEI and #4 in DFEI. If their offense can kick it up a gear, I can see them joining that group.
A team has to be a borderline top 10 OFEI offense. OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.
Here are the OFEI ratings of the CFB national champions over the last 10 years.
2016 Clemson- 6
2015 Alabama- 11
2014 Ohio State- 3
2013 Florida State- 12
2012 Alabama- 5
2011 Alabama- 11
2010 Auburn- 1
2009 Alabama- 5
2008 Florida- 3
2007 LSU- 3
Every CFB national championship was ranked in the top 12 in offensive FEI over the last 10 seasons.
A team has to be a top 10 DFEI defense. DFEI is defensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent offenses faced.
Here are the DFEI ratings of the CFB national champions over the last 10 years.
2016 Clemson- 9
2015 Alabama- 1
2014 Ohio State- 16
2013 Florida State- 5
2012 Alabama- 4
2011 Alabama- 1
2010 Auburn- 8
2009 Alabama- 1
2008 Florida- 1
2007 LSU- 6
Every team except 2014 Ohio State finished in the top 10 in DFEI the year they won the NC. 2014 was a weird year. Out of the four CFB playoff teams, none of them finished ranked top 10 in DFEI. Alabama had the best DFEI ranking out of the bunch (#12). 15 out of the 20 national championship finalists finished top 10 in DFEI. The other exceptions were 2007 Ohio State who got blown out in the NC game, 2008 Oklahoma (historically great offense), 2012 Notre Dame (blown out in NCG) and 2014 Oregon (blown out in NCG). So only 2008 Oklahoma and 2014 Ohio State really came close to winning a national championship with a less than great defense and '08 Oklahoma had the highest scoring offense of all-time. That tells me Ohio State winning a championship with a DFEI outside the top 10 was sort of a fluke.
Here are the teams that are ranked in the top 10 in DFEI and ranked in the top 15 in OFEI.
Georgia- #5 OFEI and #1 DFEI
Notre Dame- #4 OFEI and #7 DFEI
Ohio State- #2 OFEI and #6 DFEI
Washington- #11 OFEI and #5 DFEI
Alabama- #8 OFEI and #3 DFEI
Ohio State lost two games in pretty sound fashion so I consider them pretty much eliminated from CFP contention. That leaves the following teams:
Georgia- #5 OFEI and #1 DFEI
Notre Dame- #4 OFEI and #7 DFEI
Washington- #11 OFEI and #5 DFEI
Alabama- #8 OFEI and #3 DFEI
Those are your national championship contenders. There is one team that could join that mix though. Clemson is ranked 21st in OFEI and #4 in DFEI. If their offense can kick it up a gear, I can see them joining that group.
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 4:40 pm
10
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:33 pm to Bench McElroy
2008 UF was pretty stout. Damn.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:33 pm to Bench McElroy
How does OSU have the #2 OFEI. Metric already lost credibility for me
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:34 pm to Bench McElroy
If Oklahoma wins out, they're getting in over Washington.
If Clemson wins out, they're getting in over Washington.
Washington needs Oklahoma or Clemson to lose.
Let alone Wisky.
Committee doesn't care about OFEI or whatever...their deliberations in their protocol that is published states all info considered must be transparant and well known to the public - I doubt anybody really knows OFEI. More people know the Computers...Massey, Sagarin.
And of course the biggest thing they talk about in the Protocols is the AP Poll and Coaches Poll..."as data to be considered."
If Clemson wins out, they're getting in over Washington.
Washington needs Oklahoma or Clemson to lose.
Let alone Wisky.
Committee doesn't care about OFEI or whatever...their deliberations in their protocol that is published states all info considered must be transparant and well known to the public - I doubt anybody really knows OFEI. More people know the Computers...Massey, Sagarin.
And of course the biggest thing they talk about in the Protocols is the AP Poll and Coaches Poll..."as data to be considered."
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 4:36 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:42 pm to slackster
quote:Uhh, yeah
2008 UF was pretty stout. Damn.
That team was absolutely incredible.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:48 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
What in the hell are you talking about? This post has nothing to do with the committee.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:50 pm to ReauxlTide222
The Oklahoma team they beat that season was really good. Kind of dumb that game is viewed as just another "Big Game Bob" loss in a title game.
Florida was incredible, but the Sooners kept it relatively competitive.
Florida was incredible, but the Sooners kept it relatively competitive.
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:51 pm to BayouBengals03
I still think that '08 OU offense was the best I've seen in CFB. Just seemed like they could whatever they wanted. That was of course until they ran into UF.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:53 pm to BayouBengals03
Yeah couple of red zone turnovers in the first half that killed us. fricking Kevin Wilson.
That Fla team was ridiculous.
That Fla team was ridiculous.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:55 pm to BenDover
Just went and looked up some of the numbers on that OU offense -- Bradford threw for 50 TDs and 8 INT
Had two RBs over 1k, one had 20 TDs and the other 14
Avg 51 ppg. That is stupid
eta: Is there a way to look up how many players got drafted from both of those teams? Scrolled through UFs stats from that year too and it seemed like every player played in the NFL.
Had two RBs over 1k, one had 20 TDs and the other 14
Avg 51 ppg. That is stupid
eta: Is there a way to look up how many players got drafted from both of those teams? Scrolled through UFs stats from that year too and it seemed like every player played in the NFL.
This post was edited on 11/6/17 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:57 pm to BenDover
14 vs Florida
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:57 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
The Oklahoma team they beat that season was really good. Kind of dumb that game is viewed as just another "Big Game Bob" loss in a title game.
When the best offense in college football history scores 14 points in the title game, yeah it's going to be frowned upon no matter how good Florida was that year
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:58 pm to VADawg
The same can be said for the 2003 OU team.....
Posted on 11/6/17 at 4:59 pm to dukke v
quote:
The same can be said for the 2003 OU team.....
Their 2003 offense was nowhere near as good as their 2008 offense, IMO
Posted on 11/6/17 at 5:01 pm to BenDover
quote:OU had the the #1, #3, #4 and #21 players the following year
Is there a way to look up how many players got drafted from both of those teams?
Posted on 11/6/17 at 5:02 pm to castorinho
quote:
OU had the the #1, #3, #4 and #21 players the following year
And Demarco Murray wasn't one of them.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 5:04 pm to Bench McElroy
2008 had a legit 4 or 5 teams that were championship-worthy in most other years. Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas all had amazing teams with all-time great college QBs. USC had one of the nastiest defenses of the decade that people forget about because they like to think USC was "overrated" every year. And even the Bama team in its second year under Saban gave Florida all they wanted. That Utah loss in the bowl game I really believe was because they had lost motivation after being so close.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 5:04 pm to Bench McElroy
Nobody is reading all that you pussy.
Posted on 11/6/17 at 5:14 pm to xenythx
quote:
That Utah loss in the bowl game I really believe was because they had lost motivation after being so close.
Utah also just makes a living on being overlooked. They thrive on hateraid
Posted on 11/6/17 at 5:29 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
That team was absolutely incredible.
Yet they still lost to Ole Miss
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