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re: Cfb week 8 bet thread

Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:11 am to
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:11 am to
quote:

they dont


Like I said, twice as many as a 12 point difference, so yes, that point is important.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32015 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:23 am to
quote:

Like I said, twice as many as a 12 point difference, so yes, that point is important.


you can say that about every number being important. 11 is not a key number, the difference from 12 to 11 is marginal at best.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 8:51 am to
quote:

12 to 11 is marginal at best.


Wasn't aware that something being 100% more likely was marginal
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32015 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:19 am to
quote:


Wasn't aware that something being 100% more likely was marginal


thats because its not 100% more likely.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:24 am to
quote:

thats because its not 100% more likely.



Link?
Posted by bisonduck
Oregon City, OR
Member since Apr 2011
12977 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Let public load up on Oregon and then take Washington St.


I wouldn’t touch that game with a 10 foot pole. There is a chance Oregon mauls them. I don’t see the same front 7 they’ve had the past few years. Also, Oregon’s secondary improves every game.
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32015 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:39 am to
Out of 23,768 games from 1980-2015... a grand total of 577 games landed at 11, and 434 landed at 12.

compare that to a real key number in 10 where 1007 games hit, or 14 977games hit.. which is double or almost double the rate of anything 11,12,13.

If you want 11 just because its better than 12.. great, thats fine... but to act like its some key number thats going to win 100%more times than 12 is comical. 11/12 are dead numbers.
This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 9:40 am
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 9:53 am to
quote:

Out of 23,768 games from 1980-2015... a grand total of 577 games landed at 11, and 434 landed at 12.

compare that to a real key number in 10 where 1007 games hit, or 14 977games hit.. which is double or almost double the rate of anything 11,12,13.

If you want 11 just because its better than 12.. great, thats fine... but to act like its some key number thats going to win 100%more times than 12 is comical. 11/12 are dead numbers.




Link? Because I found conflicting data
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3736 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:17 am to
I agree 11 is a key number although not as important as 3, 4, 7.

12 is a dead number, like 5
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
65489 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:21 am to
this argument is kinda pointless

Ga ST +15 on thursday, cause you know you are gonna play the thursday game

This post was edited on 10/15/18 at 10:21 am
Posted by wish i was tebow
The Golf Board
Member since Feb 2009
46121 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:25 am to
quote:

Out of 23,768 games from 1980-2015... a grand total of 577 games landed at 11, and 434 landed at 12.

compare that to a real key number in 10 where 1007 games hit, or 14 977games hit.. which is double or almost double the rate of anything 11,12,13.

If you want 11 just because its better than 12.. great, thats fine... but to act like its some key number thats going to win 100%more times than 12 is comical. 11/12 are dead numbers.




TAKE THAT FOR DATA
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:27 am to
quote:

I agree 11 is a key number although not as important as 3, 4, 7.


I'm not sure how this is controversial. You can look at how much more likely it is than 12. Is it a true "key number" no, but when comparing to the alternative it absolutely is
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32015 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:29 am to
quote:

12 is a dead number, like 5



hmm 11 is key.. 12 is dead like 5

but 5 has hit 651 times, which is more than 11 or 12.

Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50337 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:38 am to
Utah State ATS: 6-0
Utah State Over: 6-0

Posted by Carson123987
Middle Court at the Rec
Member since Jul 2011
66376 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 10:41 am to
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50337 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 2:36 pm to
Does anyone have good data or math on teasing off lines like 3, 7, etc.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73205 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 3:47 pm to
Bama -29 again lol

Yeller are yall covering that?

I want to drop on Bama 1st half again but might have to sit it out
Posted by Carson123987
Middle Court at the Rec
Member since Jul 2011
66376 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 3:50 pm to
ive hit every bama 1H bet I've placed this year, I will probably play it again here
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73205 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 4:02 pm to
Yeah it's been something else. Just sticking to the process and betting only LSu and Bama the rest of the way
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 10/15/18 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

NC State +17 at Clemson

Usually this game ends up closer than this. Kinda surprised


Was very surprised by that line... If I was a betting man, I would put my money on NC State to cover that. The line is so high, it feels like one of those where Vegas is begging people to take NC State.

I expect a very close game unless Finley has a terrible game.
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