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CFB Advanced Metrics and Computer Polls, Week 13

Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:23 am
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76498 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:23 am
Massey Composite

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. Louisiana State
4. Georgia
5. Pennsylvania State
6. Utah
7. Alabama
8. Michigan
9. Oklahoma
10. Wisconsin

FPI

1 Ohio State, Big Ten 11-0 12.6 - 0.4 64.1 86.5 18 33.2
2 Clemson, ACC 11-0 12.9 - 0.1 87.8 95.0 63 30.7
3 Alabama, SEC 10-1 10.7 - 1.4 65.0 0.0 9 29.2
4 LSU, SEC 11-0 12.4 - 0.6 43.7 52.4 25 25.8
5 Georgia, SEC 10-1 11.5 - 1.5 46.5 47.6 88 24.6
6 Penn State, Big Ten 9-2 10.0 - 2.0 99.4 0.0 115 23.0
7 Michigan, Big Ten 9-2 9.3 - 2.7 25.8 0.0 3 22.0
8 Florida, SEC 9-2 9.9 - 2.1 90.9 0.0 53 21.5
9 Auburn, SEC 8-3 8.4 - 3.7 35.0 0.0 6 21.3
10 Oregon, Pac-12 9-2 10.5 - 2.5 50.7 53.5 74 21.1


SP+

1 Ohio St
2 Bama
3 LSU
4 Clemson
5 UGA
6 OU
7 PSU
8 Utah
9 Florida
10 Michigan

* Ohio State's historic rating dropped from +37.2 to +36.2
* Big rises: Colorado, UAB, Ark St, WKU
* Big falls: Utah St, BC, Fresno, Arkansas (again!)



RPI

1 Ohio St. 11-0 50.79
2 LSU 11-0 50.57
3 Clemson 11-0 49.63
4 Georgia 10-1 48.76
5 Florida 9-2 46.39
6 Utah 10-1 45.97
7 Alabama 10-1 45.83
8 Oklahoma 10-1 45.76
9 Penn St. 9-2 44.69
10 Michigan 9-2 44.23
This post was edited on 11/25/19 at 6:45 pm
Posted by TideSaint
Hill Country
Member since Sep 2008
75839 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:29 am to
quote:

3 Alabama, SEC 10-1 10.7 - 1.4 65.0 0.0 9 29.2
4 LSU, SEC 11-0 12.4 - 0.6 43.7 52.4 25 25.8


quote:

2 Bama
3 LSU


Oh boy.
Posted by rockchlkjayhku11
Cincinnati, OH
Member since Aug 2006
36449 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:37 am to
cincinnati's standard deviation is wild, and yet i think they end up in the right spot overall. that's pretty cool.
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76498 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:41 am to
quote:

cincinnati's standard deviation is wild, and yet i think they end up in the right spot overall. that's pretty cool.


They have looked wildly unimpressive but have managed to win all their games.

Evaluative vs Predictive polls significantly disagree so you get the significant deviation.
This post was edited on 11/24/19 at 9:42 am
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
41291 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:42 am to
quote:

CFB Insecure Metrics and Ohio State Feel Good Rankings, Week 13
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84609 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:46 am to
quote:

Oh boy.


Everyone in the country knows LSU would skull frick Alabama if they played again. No biggie.
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76498 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:48 am to
quote:

Everyone in the country knows LSU would skull frick Alabama if they played again. No biggie.


Without Tua, most certainly.
Posted by dsides
Member since Jan 2013
5344 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:56 am to
quote:

Without Tua, most certainly


Rankings are supposed to take that into consideration, correct?
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101292 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 9:57 am to
What is possibly in a computer algorithm that puts Bama ahead of LSU?
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76498 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:00 am to
quote:

Rankings are supposed to take that into consideration, correct?


Its extremely difficult for computers to do that. It's a bit easier in baseball where its mano-a-mano.
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76498 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:00 am to
quote:

What is possibly in a computer algorithm that puts Bama ahead of LSU?


LSU's defense
Posted by bucknut15
Columbus
Member since Nov 2015
721 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:01 am to
Oh look another insecure LSU fan making the thread about Ohio State.
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101292 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:02 am to
quote:

quote:
What is possibly in a computer algorithm that puts Bama ahead of LSU?


LSU's defense



How does an algorithm determine Bama’s better?
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
155383 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:02 am to
Y’all dot the fricking i of insecure
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
41291 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:02 am to
quote:

Oh look another insecure LSU fan making the thread about Ohio State.


It's easy to do that when Ohio State fans are literally the only people that think these computers totally are the end all be all.
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76498 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:03 am to
quote:

How does an algorithm determine Bama’s better?


I haven't seen the SP+ internal data. It usually comes out sometime early this afternoon.
Posted by Hurricane Mike
Member since Jun 2008
20059 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:04 am to
Same as Sagarin and NY Times from back in the day. Their computers were worthless.
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76498 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:04 am to
quote:

think these computers totally are the end all be all


I've literally said the exact opposite for the past 10 years.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73255 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:04 am to
quote:

CFB Insecure Metrics and Ohio State Feel Good Rankings, Week 13



This. Would never be posted if OSU took an L
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
101292 posts
Posted on 11/24/19 at 10:05 am to
I’m just curious, are they breaking down overall in-game stats or is it all just comparing relative overall rankings? Either would certainly have flaws, but whatever.
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