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Started By
Message
Betting ML on Kansas and Duke every game possible
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:13 pm
Here's the plan and it's likely an idiotic one, but i'm excited to find out. I also think I'm like 10 years late on this, but i finally have some level of disposable income to test this.
I am going to bet $10 on the ML for every Kansas and Duke game that has a posted ML on Bovada this season. No spreads, no parlays, $10 ML every game available. Neither team had a line posted for their first games this year, for example.
These 2 teams were chosen because they are the most consistent programs in CBB by far. They are also the best performers as underdogs in all of CBB, although they aren't underdogs very often.
Basically, I have just always had a hunch that if you bet on Kansas to win every game they play, you'd make money. I decided to throw Duke in as well for shits and gigs.
Experiment starts tonight....$100 to lose, betting $10 on each team every game for the whole season or until the $100 is gone.
Any predictions on what is going to happen?
I am going to bet $10 on the ML for every Kansas and Duke game that has a posted ML on Bovada this season. No spreads, no parlays, $10 ML every game available. Neither team had a line posted for their first games this year, for example.
These 2 teams were chosen because they are the most consistent programs in CBB by far. They are also the best performers as underdogs in all of CBB, although they aren't underdogs very often.
Basically, I have just always had a hunch that if you bet on Kansas to win every game they play, you'd make money. I decided to throw Duke in as well for shits and gigs.
Experiment starts tonight....$100 to lose, betting $10 on each team every game for the whole season or until the $100 is gone.
Any predictions on what is going to happen?
11
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:14 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
You will win $2 every win and lose $10 with every loss.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:18 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Sounds boring. $10 bets? Meh.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:23 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Kansas is 50-21 last 2 years straight up in all lined games
Duke 55-20 last 2 years straight up all lined games
Duke 55-20 last 2 years straight up all lined games
This post was edited on 11/14/17 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:26 pm to sgallo3
Yeah so you lose $210 based off that previous record and win maybe $150? Not a good idea bud. You would be better off parlaying both of them to win every night. Even still, dumb.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:27 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Small units on ML favorites...how exciting!!
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:27 pm to Tigers0891
quote:
Yeah so you lose $210 based off that previous record and win maybe $150?
where are you getting these numbers?
not to mention kansas has lost 19 times in last 3 years, so not sure how they have more losses than that
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:27 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
My guess is you will make a small amount of money, less than if you invested in some boring things like treasury bonds or an index mutual fund.
Oddsmakers know what they are doing with regards to easy bets. It's just not worth your time. I was looking up odds on South Korea to win the Olympic ice hockey tournament. The odds on betting against them to win require you to put 10,000 dollars down to win 1 dollar. Now of course South Korea will never win Olympic ice hockey but who the hell would take out 100,000 bucks to win 10 dollars
This isn't the same, but I bet if you put down $500 for the year, you will end up taking up home maybe a $50 profit at best. Maybe more like 20-25.
Oddsmakers know what they are doing with regards to easy bets. It's just not worth your time. I was looking up odds on South Korea to win the Olympic ice hockey tournament. The odds on betting against them to win require you to put 10,000 dollars down to win 1 dollar. Now of course South Korea will never win Olympic ice hockey but who the hell would take out 100,000 bucks to win 10 dollars
This isn't the same, but I bet if you put down $500 for the year, you will end up taking up home maybe a $50 profit at best. Maybe more like 20-25.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:29 pm to wildtigercat93
it's an experiment more than anything else. something else to follow over the course of the season. the idea isnt to get rich, it's just to see what happens because I can.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:33 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Will almost for sure lose money. Think about it, at least half their games they will be -1000 at a minimum so that’s $40 assuming both teams win them all. All it takes is each team to lose two games they shouldn’t and you’re already in the negatives. That’s not including the closer spread games where there will be more losses.
If you’re smart you get AGAINST KU in the tourney. Guaranteed to make $$$
If you’re smart you get AGAINST KU in the tourney. Guaranteed to make $$$
Posted on 11/14/17 at 5:41 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
My guess is you will make a small amount of money, less than if you invested in some boring things like treasury bonds or an index mutual fund.
this is my initial guess as well, and i want to find out. i obviously won't make very much money betting $10 a game, but percentage wise, im interested in the outcome. maybe i lose the bankroll entirely with some ugly stretch for both teams or something. that'd be hilarious, although historically impossible under these coaches. again, something to follow AND i'll be pulling for duke for the first time in my life
quote:
Oddsmakers know what they are doing with regards to easy bets. It's just not worth your time
don't disagree here, either. Im really just interested to see how it plays out over the course of the season without varying units bet or unit size. Maybe i can gather some small amount of data and adjust bet size in the future.
kansas has a -0.4 MOV under self as underdogs. maybe the scheme is just to bet ML in all games where kansas is a dog. i don't know, just wanna have fun with it
Posted on 11/14/17 at 6:11 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
this is a terrible idea, but the fact that its only 100 dollars, its not that big a deal.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 6:11 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Why do you keep saying your “curious how it plays out” just look back at previous seasons of the top teams and see.
Just like others have said, you’re going to win $1 or less on a lot of the games they win and lose the whole 10 on the games they lose. Your almost certain to lose money overall and get crushed by the vig.
Just like others have said, you’re going to win $1 or less on a lot of the games they win and lose the whole 10 on the games they lose. Your almost certain to lose money overall and get crushed by the vig.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 6:21 pm to LSU-MNCBABY
quote:
Why do you keep saying your “curious how it plays out” just look back at previous seasons of the top teams and see
because it depends on the year, really, and it's more fun to actually do it than to just talk about it. im enjoying it already.
kansas, for example, has made money more often than not using this strategy.
quote:
Just like others have said, you’re going to win $1 or less on a lot of the games they win and lose the whole 10 on the games they lose
the thing is, kansas doesnt lose those $1 games (shite they barely lose any games period), and they win way more often than not in the games that will have actual payouts. let's see if it works out. seems to me that no one thinks it will even though history says otherwise. isnt that worth the experiment alone?
Posted on 11/14/17 at 7:36 pm to Lazy But Talented
quote:
Sounds boring. $10 bets? Meh.
He's got some disposable income though.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 7:53 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
I mean you could easily look up previous years and odds in order to calculate whether it’s profitable
Posted on 11/14/17 at 8:08 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
. I was looking up odds on South Korea to win the Olympic ice hockey tournament. The odds on betting against them to win require you to put 10,000 dollars down to win 1 dollar. Now of course South Korea will never win Olympic ice hockey but who the hell would take out 100,000 bucks to win 10 dollars
Uhhh, I think you might be a retard and have no idea how lines work.
Posted on 11/14/17 at 8:13 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
who the hell would take out 100,000 bucks to win 10 dollars
Just put down a mil. Easiest $100 I’ll ever make!
Posted on 11/14/17 at 8:38 pm to slackster
quote:
He's got some disposable income though
5 years ago i couldnt lose $100 for no reason. now i can. this is the farthest thing from a brag thread ever. you guys are gonna be jelly when i make $25 on this scheme
This post was edited on 11/14/17 at 8:39 pm
Posted on 11/15/17 at 8:02 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
Why don't you just wait until the season ends, look up historical odds site that showed what every game closed as, then do the math? Otherwise you're wasting your money and time. Most people are being pretty nice about it. Just trying to help you out bud.
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