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re: ATL Thread | offseason hot takes + discussion

Posted on 11/9/22 at 7:43 pm to
Posted by lsu31always
Team 31™
Member since Jan 2008
108096 posts
Posted on 11/9/22 at 7:43 pm to
Believe the money we send with Jake doesn't count against the cbt
Posted by SteelerBravesDawg
Member since Sep 2020
43337 posts
Posted on 11/9/22 at 8:29 pm to
Yep.

Screw Boras.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24897 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 10:47 am to
Gonna go out on a limb and say we sign Verlander to a short deal.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
62014 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Gonna go out on a limb and say we sign Verlander to a short deal.


Getting that 1st Astros WS rotation band back together again? Only 5-6 years older? Hell, what’s Dallas Keuchel doing? He probably owes us a free year after what he gave us. And at least we can save money on benefits when their Medicare kicks in.
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 12:16 pm
Posted by LSUChamps03
Member since Feb 2006
2897 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 12:20 pm to
Promising article about Soroka:

Soroka
Posted by 21zereaux
Member since Aug 2017
1533 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 1:03 pm to
Very nice article! Thank you for sharing.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
62014 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 1:09 pm to
I kid, of course. Have you heard anything about JV to the Braves or just think it makes sense? I didn’t watch them much, but he’ll probably be the run-away Cy Young winner in the AL, no?

I know he’ll be 39 or 40 next season, but that TJ surgery seemed to rejuvenate his arm and missing 2 years seemed to rejuvenate his mind. I heard him interviewed sometime around the break, and I’m not sure he doesn’t want to try and make a run at 300. He could literally be the last one in history. I’d be more than fine with a reasonable 2-year deal. I think we might have to trade some pitching assets to address LF and SS—not sure we can afford to fill those in free agency—so if we can get good value in an addition to the top of the rotation, hell yeah. And by “value,” I mean years more than AAV, really. I have no idea what he’d want yearly, but surely he’ll sign for 2 years and a club(or mutual) option wherever he winds up.

But watching the playoffs, it’s just so apparent how important it is to have high velocity high leverage bullpen guys. I might prioritize adding a couple of those more than anything after SS. I’m fine with bringing Duvall back for LF/DH/RH bat off the bench, and I think his ability to play all 3 OF positions is a lot more valuable than we acknowledge. The shift being gone should benefit Ozuna as much as any RH hitter, so if we’re stuck with him for another year, some kind of Duvall/Ozuna/Contreras/Grissom combo in LF/DH to start the season would be fine with me to start the season. Could upgrade at the deadline if necessary.

Gotta think the offense will be better with Ozzie back, Ronnie another year healthier (and hopefully hungrier), the natural progression of Harris, etc…Probably know what you’re get with, Travis, Riley and Olson, though maybe they take a small tick up in production? (Maybe Riley really was distracted and affected by the baby? And Olson feels a little more free—pun intended—a year removed from that Freddie awkwardness and doesn’t go through those super long slumps? And Travis has one more healthy and productive offensive season in him?)

I think it’s hard to make any serious move until AA decides what he’s doing at short. I think Dansby’s offense can be replaced. Maybe not the sheer raw positive production numbers, but more offset by a lack of his negative “un-production” being a better fit in the flow of this team’s lineup. But can his leadership and defense be replaced? I didn’t realize just how good he could pick it until I got MLB TV a couple years ago and started watching him actually play everyday. Speaking of, knowing you can write his name on the card every day is valuable too. I just don’t how valuable. Or more importantly how valuable AA, Dansby, and his agent (did he just hire Boras or has he always repped him?) think he is.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
62014 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 1:40 pm to
Good article on Soroka.

quote:

Anthopoulos, Braves president of baseball operations, gave him permission to go the pitching lab at Bio-Kinetics, where they have studied pitchers with three-dimensional motion analysis for decades, through techniques its founders developed in the 1980s and famously first used on Nolan Ryan. They keep a database of thousands of pitchers and use the info to study how many of the elite pitchers, including Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, stayed healthier than others.


But frick “permission,” if AA didn’t send Strider out there all expenses paid the week after we got bounced to stay as long as he wants or needs, he’s being negligent. His delivery is so smooth and looks so efficient from the windup that hopefully they’d just validate he’s doing everything right there. It’s the pitching from the stretch that I’d really want the validation on, though, especially at his size and with the added innings to his young arm. Cannot afford to have him miss a season with TJ during this win-now window.

And I love Hank Aaron. But the fact that this is a thing:
quote:

the 755 Is Real podcast.
makes me think I should start a “762 Happened—The Balls Went Over the Fence” podcast.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
41194 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 1:44 pm to
There was a report in the spring that the Braves were close to signing Verlander before the lockout last year. That’s the only connection I’ve seen.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24897 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

There was a report in the spring that the Braves were close to signing Verlander before the lockout last year.


Yeah, that and then the opt out yesterday.
Just wishful thinking on my part, as I'm in the minority that we need a stud better than Fried (Cy YoUnG cAnDiDaTe).
And Strider may be that guy but can't count on that next year being his 2nd year in the league, especially after that last game (hopefully really just the oblique and not tired arm). deGrom and Rodon are the only other 2 that would fit that description and I'm not sold on Rodon but wouldn't lose sleep if they signed him.
And yes, we've been burned by high dollar pitchers in the past, Gausman, Lowe, Keuchel. But pitching doesn't slump nearly as much as hitting does. And we see what happens when our bats get cold. Couldn't beat a AA team.
Of course, I'd be perfectly ok with getting another outfield bat/DH. And as HC said, shore up the pen with guys throwing HEAT!
Regardless, I'm excited about the future. Young guys should only continue to get better. Though I do worry about the shift being taken away. It's not going to help us as much as it will help with more high contact teams. Our guys already swing for 500 footers every pitch. This is only going to exacerbate that. Banning the shift doesn't work when you're striking out over 9 times per game.

ETA: Plus, if you sign Verlander, he brings along a nice set of boobs.
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 2:27 pm
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
62014 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

as I'm in the minority that we need a stud better than Fried (Cy YoUnG cAnDiDaTe).


I’ve been with you there all along. (Actually, I think I was 1st—I HATED the huge difference in velo between his fastball and his curve being his out pitch). What plays in the regular season doesn’t always play in the playoffs when you’re facing better hitters who are locked in on every pitch and who are seeing you more often the longer the series goes.

Unless you’ve got 4 guys behind him you can run out hitting close to triple digits, your “ace” needs to be able to sit in the 96/97 range in today’s game. Aaron Nola can’t even get through 5 consistently in the playoffs in 2022. Every pitch is high leverage now. Of course there’s value in giving guys like Fried a huge, long-term deal to help get you to the playoffs every year and giving you quality playoff starts, but not at the expense of neglecting the bullpen. As great as Fried is, he’s not giving you 7 automatic shut-down, playoff innings to simply hand it off to the set-up guy and closer to finish it off. Which is fine—he doesn’t have to be—as long as we have enough pen arms. It’s a balance AA is gonna have to find. We wouldn’t have won it last year without Fried, but nor would we have without Matzek and Smith turning it way up and morphing our pen into the ‘15 Royals for 3 weeks.

But we don’t have to make a long-term decision on Fried just yet. I, admittedly, don’t keep up with our farm guys and the rest of the league like a lot of you. Do we have some high velo guys ready to move up into back end pen guys? Are there any affordable ones on the market? We can’t go into the playoffs next year with this year’s pen quality. It HAS to get upgraded, but maybe can wait until the deadline.

quote:

Though I do worry about the shift being taken away. It's not going to help us as much as it will help with more high contact teams. Our guys already swing for 500 footers every pitch. This is only going to exacerbate that. Banning the shift doesn't work when you're striking out over 9 times per game.


I hadn’t thought about that, really. May be the deciding factor on not signing Dansby. He simply strikes out too much for that much money in a lineup with already too much swing and miss in it. May be better overall with a cheaper guy who may not have his power production, but has a better bat-to-ball tool. At least Riley’s fat arse won’t have to sprint from 3rd to shallow RF every time a LH gets 2 strikes. Maybe that’s why he slumped so bad when he did—dude was fricking exhausted (I’m mainly kidding, but he did seem to have put on a few by the end of the season).

And I know AA likes to hang on to prospects—and I hate trading away the few position ones we have since we seem to draft 90% pitchers in the early rounds—but it wouldn’t surprise me if this is the year he finally pairs a Grissom or Contreras with Anderson and some other farm arms and makes another big Olson-type trade to fill a hole or 2. We’ve got so many guys locked up long-term there’s not a whole lot of room for guys who need consistent big league ABs and innings.

quote:

ETA: Plus, if you sign Verlander, he brings along a nice set of boobs.


Those are just as valuable as whatever he gives you on the mound imo fwiw.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
78900 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

that we need a stud better than Fried (Cy YoUnG cAnDiDaTe).


Typing in that style doesn't make it not true. Just makes you look ignorant as frick.

If you think we can significantly upgrade over Fried as the #1 in the rotation, I have some awesome beach front property in Idaho to show you.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
41194 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 3:53 pm to
quote:

he’s not giving you 7 automatic shut-down, playoff innings to simply hand it off to the set-up guy and closer to finish it off.


There is no one out there like this in today’s game to be fair.

Look at

Verlander, Bieber, Fried, Scherzer, deGrom, Nola, Wheeler, Valdez, Urias, Darvish

Those were the 10 best pitchers in the postseason. None had an ERA above 3.25 and only one above 3 in the regular season and they combined to pitch to an ERA in the mid 4s in the playoffs. Valdez was the only guy dominant over multiple starts in the playoffs. Wheeler was also very good.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
41194 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 3:55 pm to
Dansby officially gets a qualifying offer.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24897 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

Typing in that style doesn't make it not true. Just makes you look ignorant as frick.


Nice rebuttal. Makes me want to respect your opinion more than you respect mine.

However, without being a fan that disparages a opinions that go against their own, I'll fully admit that I only watch Braves games. I don't watch any other team. So there's definitely selection bias playing into my opinions. But seeing Nola, Wheeler, etc., shut us down while at the same time feeling like Fried is always hit or miss (especially in the playoffs) just makes me think we can do better. I'm sure you're going to throw Scherzer and deGrom in my face, but those dudes are old. You expect them to wear down some at the end of the year. Fried is young. He shouldn't be making us clutch our pearls every time he pitches in a playoff game.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
78900 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

Makes me want to respect your opinion more than you respect mine.


Wasn't trying to get you to respect my opinion and I clearly don't respect yours regarding Fried.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
62014 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

There is no one out there like this in today’s game to be fai


You’re absolutely right about this. The game has changed so much from those early-mid 90s playoff runs we went on. I’m not trying to replace Fried—though I think Strider winds up our #1—I just don’t want to tie up so much money in him that we can’t afford 4 high leverage, high velo pen guys. I’d rather roll with Strider and Wright as our 1/2 with 4 of those pen guys than Strider/Fried/Wright as our 1/2/3 with only 2 or 3 of them if I had to choose. Would certainly prefer all 3 AND 3 or 4 of the pen guys.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
78900 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

I just don’t want to tie up so much money in him


This is just overthinking things.

If we have the money to extend one of the 5 best starting pitchers currently in baseball, you do it.
Posted by Dale Murphy
God's Country
Member since Feb 2005
24897 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:22 pm to
quote:

Wasn't trying to get you to respect my opinion and I clearly don't respect yours regarding Fried.


Respecting an opinion and changing one's opinion aren't the same.
But you do you.

But back to things that really matter, what all LFers/DHers would be worth the money? And as Hot Carl has already asked, what pen pieces would help?
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
78900 posts
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:24 pm to
quote:

Respecting an opinion and changing one's opinion aren't the same.
But you do you.



Lol what? You're the one who brought up the respect thing.

So why isn't Fried an ace in your eyes?
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