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Started By
Message
Let’s discuss WTRH in this thread
Posted on 2/7/19 at 9:51 am
Posted on 2/7/19 at 9:51 am
Any news?
ETA: Update thread title to discuss WTRH for long term (my initial post subject was about a single day drop in early 2019)
ETA: Update thread title to discuss WTRH for long term (my initial post subject was about a single day drop in early 2019)
This post was edited on 2/22/19 at 4:18 pm
4
Posted on 2/7/19 at 10:27 am to TDFreak
Oh ok. They just acquired another company for $3.8M.
Makes sense.
Time to buy?
Makes sense.
Time to buy?
Posted on 2/7/19 at 10:27 am to TDFreak
I wish I had more than I do at my original buy price.
Posted on 2/8/19 at 8:53 am to TDFreak
I think there is some significant upside- I'm in for the long run
Posted on 2/21/19 at 3:00 pm to bayoubengals88
I'm in at 10.90
Posted on 2/21/19 at 4:26 pm to bayoubengals88
they actually seem kinda safe from perspective of if they dont dilute you enough eventually grubhub or postmates purchases them to acquire the markets
Posted on 2/21/19 at 4:41 pm to oklahogjr
Sorry but no.
Its already 100% diluted, FMV should be 5.50. At the time of acquisition the Float was doubled. Lancadia had 300MM+ cash for M+A/etc and that acquisition valued WTR at ~350MM (haven't read the details in months, but 50MM cash, 300MM other considerations/stock I believe...may be other way around, but not germane to this talk).
Through some magic, they issue the new class, spend the 300MM in liquidity on WTR, change symbol to WTRH, and market cap is now 700MM+
I think they are a winner, IF they are profitable. But I do not believe they have the EBITDA to support a 700MM valuation. We will find out very soon, highly anticipating first public accounting report.
Is someone going to purchase waitr for 1BB? Maybe, but thats a 3x premium to what was just paid, and we would hope for 100-200MM profit to support that price and I dont think they are close (and that gives you a share price 15.38 -- dont get me wrong, thats a nice 40% bump, but huge risk).
There is so much competition in this market and all the big boys are currently moving into WTRH areas (even Laffy).
Anyway, mark it...book value is probably 0.00, and on a great day 5.50/share....Earnings day gambooool? It was great to invest in on any day prior to may of last year, gg Brees/etc.
Its already 100% diluted, FMV should be 5.50. At the time of acquisition the Float was doubled. Lancadia had 300MM+ cash for M+A/etc and that acquisition valued WTR at ~350MM (haven't read the details in months, but 50MM cash, 300MM other considerations/stock I believe...may be other way around, but not germane to this talk).
Through some magic, they issue the new class, spend the 300MM in liquidity on WTR, change symbol to WTRH, and market cap is now 700MM+
I think they are a winner, IF they are profitable. But I do not believe they have the EBITDA to support a 700MM valuation. We will find out very soon, highly anticipating first public accounting report.
Is someone going to purchase waitr for 1BB? Maybe, but thats a 3x premium to what was just paid, and we would hope for 100-200MM profit to support that price and I dont think they are close (and that gives you a share price 15.38 -- dont get me wrong, thats a nice 40% bump, but huge risk).
There is so much competition in this market and all the big boys are currently moving into WTRH areas (even Laffy).
Anyway, mark it...book value is probably 0.00, and on a great day 5.50/share....Earnings day gambooool? It was great to invest in on any day prior to may of last year, gg Brees/etc.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 5:33 am to brokelikeajoke
I don’t use these really, maybe once a year if I’m traveling at most. But I was going to say I was watching CNBC the other day and the girl named off like 4 or 5 differenent ones she uses in NYC and none of them were WTRH. I didn’t realize how many there were. Market seems very saturated.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 6:18 am to baldona
WTHR isn’t going after large markets like NYC. They go after small to mid-size cities and focus more on local places than national chains like many others.
I have a small amount of WTHR and bought in around 10.30. I like Meaux and with Tilman’s Backing (the largest restauranteur in the country) I don’t see this failing.
I have a small amount of WTHR and bought in around 10.30. I like Meaux and with Tilman’s Backing (the largest restauranteur in the country) I don’t see this failing.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 7:10 am to rowbear1922
quote:
WTHR isn’t going after large markets like NYC. They go after small to mid-size cities and focus more on local places than national chains like many others.
isn't that some of the more expensive customers to service and much lower demand?
grubhub turned 20 this year. the only play I see is someone like that or post mates even purchasing them. there are a dozen other more and less specialized apps that do the same thing. but based on above it sounds like they dont need waitr either to get into these markets so that's not very realistic unless waitr shows grubhub it cant come into the cities it dominates without waitr
Posted on 2/22/19 at 10:45 am to brokelikeajoke
quote:
hrough some magic, they issue the new class, spend the 300MM in liquidity on WTR, change symbol to WTRH, and market cap is now 700MM+
Haven’t followed it closely so I may be wrong but inthink part of the delat is the following:
1). They paid Waitr 300 million but mainly in stock (80 mill in cash).
2). This upon combination with Lancadia the combined entity had Waitr and 220 million in cash.
3). That cash and additional shares were used to buy bite squad to 350 million.
So at the end of the day - you have Waitr at 300 mill and bite squad at 350 mill. The delta between the sum of those and the market cap is the true appreciation.
Posted on 2/22/19 at 3:25 pm to brokelikeajoke
damn good analysis. please continue contributing 
Posted on 2/22/19 at 4:22 pm to brokelikeajoke
Given that assessment of their actual book value and it being a gamble, would some option calls ahead of their earnings release be a better move than going long in WTRH?
Posted on 2/22/19 at 9:32 pm to TDFreak
Best bet would prob be a bull call spread over just buying straight calls. Unless you’re talking about covered calls. This is, of course, if you think earnings will be favorable
Posted on 2/23/19 at 1:08 pm to donRANDOMnumbers
Agreed. Its a pedestrian conjecture based only on my opinion. Because no numbers have ever been made public.
We will know soon enough. I would be shocked if they are profitable. I believe their cash flow is likely phenominal but cost of labor is brutal and cost of expansion into new territories is brutal (all high paying it jobs).
I believe the lancadia deal was exactly for the resturant infrastructure to reduce cost of new market expansion to make it profitable.
Again. Just random guesses because we cant see the books.
We will know soon enough. I would be shocked if they are profitable. I believe their cash flow is likely phenominal but cost of labor is brutal and cost of expansion into new territories is brutal (all high paying it jobs).
I believe the lancadia deal was exactly for the resturant infrastructure to reduce cost of new market expansion to make it profitable.
Again. Just random guesses because we cant see the books.
Posted on 2/24/19 at 6:53 am to rowbear1922
quote:
WTHR isn’t going after large markets like NYC. They go after small to mid-size cities and focus more on local places than national chains like many others.
Sure, but what percentage of people that use these apps are travelers or otherwise not local residence?
If a New Yorker is visiting or doing business in Nola and pulls up an app to grab some food, what’s he gonna use first?
WTRH is popular on this board and in Louisiana because it started locally, someone in Orlando or Birmingham will not have the same preference.
I’m sinply saying there are like 10 of these doing very similar things. WTRH has a hard battle in the future.
This post was edited on 2/24/19 at 6:56 am
Posted on 2/24/19 at 4:55 pm to baldona
quote:
WTRH has a hard battle in the future.
Well it helps when they have a billionaire backer that also just so happens to be the single biggest restaurantuer in the country. I’d say they gives me a distinct advantage
Posted on 2/25/19 at 7:38 am to rowbear1922
quote:
Well it helps when they have a billionaire backer that also just so happens to be the single biggest restaurantuer in the country. I’d say they gives me a distinct advantage
So Uber Eats doesn't have any money behind it? What about Grub Hub? I don't know much about these I'll be up front about that. I'm not sure what a restrauntuer has to do with delivery though to be honest?
I have used multiple of these on a very very limited basis. All I am saying is this board has an emotional attachment to WTRH compared to the others and I'm not sure that is because it is actually better or because its locally owned and operated.
Posted on 2/25/19 at 11:20 am to TDFreak
Does Waitr have a competitive advantage due to the way they charge restaurants for their services? I recall some restaurants owners saying they use Waitr over UberEats or whatever because the cost is much lower. I don't believe waitr is in for the long haul just because eventually the larger companies can come in the small markets and bleed them out, but it will be interesting if they get acquired again.
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