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Will the markets tank if we go to war with North Korea?
Posted on 12/4/17 at 7:07 am
Posted on 12/4/17 at 7:07 am
Eventually NK will pay the price for their aggressive behavior. How will the markets react?
4
Posted on 12/4/17 at 7:12 am to lsuguru
If we go to war with NK, there will be, at a minimum, hundreds of thousands dead in NK, Seoul and tens of thousands of US deaths. The northern part of Seoul will be in ruins and any NKs not dead will require massive amounts of humanitarian aid. So the answer is yes.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:11 am to wickowick
quote:
tens of thousands of US deaths
I just can't see this happening. This is a brief conflict to topple the government mostly from air and navy forces at the outset. Beyond that, we aren't dealing with a potential pool of a billion terrorists to pull from for guerrilla warfare.
Regarding the market, yes, it would likely drop pretty harshly until the reality that the damage to Seoul was limited to just a few days. Priority #1, destroy any weapons capabilities. Have to believe we could get that done within a few days.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:48 am to UpstairsComputer
There are almost 30k US troops in SK, any hostilities will probably be all-out war because NK knows they will lose and they only have about a week before they cease to operate as a country. The US will lose most if not all of its ground troops near the DMZ.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:57 am to lsuguru
quote:Down then up.
How will the markets react?
Posted on 12/4/17 at 10:35 am to lsuguru
No. It will probably go up
Posted on 12/4/17 at 11:24 am to wickowick
I understand where you are coming from, but I disagree. That scenario is likely if we invade (similar to Iraq).
However, I think we may see tactical nukes dropped and wipe everything out at once to keep that from happening.
If we do invade, I agree with everything you are saying. It will be ugly.
However, I think we may see tactical nukes dropped and wipe everything out at once to keep that from happening.
If we do invade, I agree with everything you are saying. It will be ugly.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 6:45 pm to UpstairsComputer
It would be a brutal conventional war. You’re looking at casualties in the hundreds of thousands.
In wargames we usually air burst nukes to stop the invasion.
In wargames we usually air burst nukes to stop the invasion.
This post was edited on 12/4/17 at 6:46 pm
Posted on 12/4/17 at 7:16 pm to Lima Whiskey
I have stop losses on my stocks just in case due to this scenario. I pray for some kind of peaceful resolution.
This post was edited on 12/4/17 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 12/4/17 at 7:40 pm to lsuguru
About the only thing I'm sure of is that VIX will soar.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:01 pm to tiger perry
You realize that in a gap down scenario, your stop loss price won't mean much.
$120 stock with a $100 stop loss opens at $90... your execution hits at $90. You might consider buying put options as a form of insurance instead.
As for any sort of action involving North Korea, nothing would be cut & dried because of the China factor. Plus, global markets wouldn't react well to a short fat guy playing with nukes.
$120 stock with a $100 stop loss opens at $90... your execution hits at $90. You might consider buying put options as a form of insurance instead.
As for any sort of action involving North Korea, nothing would be cut & dried because of the China factor. Plus, global markets wouldn't react well to a short fat guy playing with nukes.
Posted on 12/4/17 at 8:04 pm to Jag_Warrior
Thanks for the advice. 
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