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Where are we in the Business Cycle?
Posted on 2/6/21 at 11:00 am
Posted on 2/6/21 at 11:00 am
With the effects of the “pandemic”, all of the money being pumped in, and every other variable that is showing mixed signals, where are we exactly?
I am trying to make some personal and work decisions and am trying to figure out the best plan, but I have no idea where our economy actually sits with everything that is going on? What are everyone else’s thoughts on the next 2-5 years and where we will actually be?
I am trying to make some personal and work decisions and am trying to figure out the best plan, but I have no idea where our economy actually sits with everything that is going on? What are everyone else’s thoughts on the next 2-5 years and where we will actually be?
1
Posted on 2/6/21 at 11:05 am to TigerGrad2011
the economy has several years left to recover.
invest in companies that will lead that recovery even if it means a 180 degree pivot from how business was conducted pre Covid
invest in companies that will lead that recovery even if it means a 180 degree pivot from how business was conducted pre Covid
Posted on 2/6/21 at 12:40 pm to cgrand
What are your thoughts on interest rates, inflation, and home prices?
Posted on 2/6/21 at 1:13 pm to TigerGrad2011
not my area.
I honestly don’t pay any attention to those. I rely on smarter people than me to do that. I will say though that over a long enough term those things don’t matter as much as most people think, relative to the stock market
I honestly don’t pay any attention to those. I rely on smarter people than me to do that. I will say though that over a long enough term those things don’t matter as much as most people think, relative to the stock market
This post was edited on 2/6/21 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 2/6/21 at 2:10 pm to TigerGrad2011
quote:They will eventually blow up. Except for home prices.
What are your thoughts on interest rates, inflation, and home prices?
People are overpaying for homes now due to low interest rates. They will be stuck with them when interest rates rise.
Posted on 2/6/21 at 2:14 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
when interest rates rise.
When? I feel like we’ve been hearing this for years now.
Posted on 2/6/21 at 2:46 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
They will eventually blow up. Except for home prices.
People are overpaying for homes now due to low interest rates. They will be stuck with them when interest rates rise.
If you had the option of staying in a house for 3 more years in this environment and throwing the excess that you would spend on a new house into your investments, or grabbing a house now with the low interest rate environment but likely overpaying, what do you do and why?
Financial plan is in order and we are on track to do what we want in life, just trying to evaluate the timing of the new home purchase.
Posted on 2/6/21 at 6:21 pm to Paul Allen
Interest rates will never go back to normal. I seriously doubt we ever sniff 3-4% fed funds again. Gonna be interesting to see what the Fed can do if inflation does ever spike.
Posted on 2/6/21 at 6:54 pm to boogiewoogie1978
quote:
They will eventually blow up. Except for home prices. People are overpaying for homes now due to low interest rates. They will be stuck with them when interest rates rise.
You say this, but if/when interest rates rise again, I think a lot of people are going to be reluctant to give up their sub 3% interest rate 30 year mortgages to sell. I see the government pumping even more money out in the form of first time home buyer credits and the like. These things, plus inflation can buoy the house prices. I really don’t see any substantial falling of the house prices unless we have a 2008/2009 scenario, which I don’t think the government will allow to happen.
Posted on 2/7/21 at 1:07 am to lsualum01
So in your mind interest rates aren’t significantly rising and you’d wait a couple years and pull the trigger on a situation where you think the seller is in over their head and you have the opportunity to call the shot and take advantage of their adverse situation?
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