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What do we think inflation is actually at?

Posted on 2/15/21 at 8:23 pm
Posted by Decisions
Member since Mar 2015
1471 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 8:23 pm
The topic speaks for itself.

We hear talk of 2% targets and whatnot but I personally think we’ve blown way past that in several asset classes and will likely (if we haven’t already) see inflation in their associated products.

What do y’all think?
Posted by wileyjones
Member since May 2014
2281 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 8:46 pm to
ShadowStats is great for this. They calculate CPI with older official models

Not sure I feel it’s as high as they claim
LINK
They say around 9%

Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 8:46 pm to
9%
Posted by Pendulum
Member since Jan 2009
7040 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

we’ve blown way past that in several asset classes


Funny you should say that because "assets" are not included in most of the inflation metrics that the central bank looks at and says, "whelp no inflation, so keep printing!"

So as long as you aren't worried about gaining assets, you can go on believing there's no inflation.
Posted by cameronml
Member since Oct 2007
1909 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 9:25 pm to
The second chart makes it look like we’ve been at 9% for the last ten years...?
Posted by maclauer
Member since Nov 2011
4765 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

What do we think inflation is actually at?

Saylor made a great point. Inflation depends who you are what you want to be.

If you want to be upper middle class or elite inflation is 20+% — look at the prices of stocks and desirable real estate / home building.

If you are poor to lower middle class then inflation is near zero as the Fed tells us it is. The price of Little Caesar’s, your cell phone plan, and Netflix aren’t changing much.

K shape in recovery and inflation
This post was edited on 2/15/21 at 9:37 pm
Posted by TomRollTideRitter
Member since Aug 2016
12617 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

If you want to be upper middle class or elite inflation is 20+% — look at the prices of stocks and desirable real estate / home building.


This. I make around $80K at 24, and I feel stress that I should be buying a house now because the prices rise over a percent every month it seems.

I should feel financially secure but don't because of rising asset prices.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80757 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 9:54 pm to
Somewhere between 7-10%
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
14036 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 10:10 pm to
Magic number is 11%
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 10:32 pm to
which podcast did saylor make that comment
Posted by maclauer
Member since Nov 2011
4765 posts
Posted on 2/15/21 at 10:50 pm to
quote:

which podcast did saylor make that comment

LINK

Great interview for 60 mins or so discussing inflation and macroeconomics. Personally turned it off when he started shilling bitcoin since I’ve heard all those arguments a thousand times
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