Thinking about buying some puts on TSLA

I wouldn't unless you just have money you dont like and if you give me a bit to get home from the gym I'll tell you why.

Good luck with that.
I think they get hammered after earnings. But not a strong enough opinion to put money on it.

The problem is they've looked like shite for a while yet the stock keeps going up and people who've been betting against them have lost a lot of money. Now, it's down YTD but as recently has mid June, it was trading near ATHs.

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I’d love to hear your take Stout.

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My reason for the OP is fairly simple...

For the OP if you are buying earnings for the call today you waited too late IMO. You are going to pay a premium for them today and you might make a quick buck or two, but the risk isn't worth the reward. You should have bought them last week or earlier in preparation.

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I’m currently short Tesla.

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You aren't OP and not buying at a premium the day of. I think you are safe to dump them tomorrow but the scary thing is Elon could fart into the phone for the entire conference call and fanboys will still keep Tesla overvalued tomorrow. I know a lot of people that have lost money shorting Tesla over the past year and with any other company they would have been correct because all the signs are there. It's almost in-explainable at this point.

For a long term short:

I am friends with a guy that was an executive for Tesla for 4 years. We have spoken about Tesla a lot but at lunch yesterday we went a little more in depth because we were talking about their earnings today.

He left for a few reasons including a nice offer on another start up that includes stock options, but one of the main ones is that his boss was a horrible fit and a huge reason why they were having Model 3 production issues. My friend was involved in production and told me that the person hired over him was a mistake and horrible fit overall. When my friend left his boss used him as a scapegoat yet the boss was let go 3 months later because the problems still existed and got worse. Elon took note of it and recently let that guy go which is why we finally started seeing some Model 3s roll out.

Also, on their production issues my friend was telling me that another issue with the Model 3 is that the concept was never 100% finalized. Engineers were still changing stuff in it mid production runs further delaying things. If there were 150 cars just fresh off the assembly line, and the engineers changed things, they had to run those cars back through to implement the new changes. This has apparently happened a lot and Elon is looking to end that practice.

To say this...

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Additionally, he’s lost a ton of executives this year.

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Is a bit misleading because they were very quietly doing a restructure and the news of it finally leaked like a month ago.

I do think you are correct on this...

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I think we’ll see a capital raise soon enough

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But I honestly don't see that being a roadblock for them. He will get the capitol he needs and there's a bit more to it, but Tesla is going to shift to more than just a car company. We have seen small signs of it already but it's going to happen and especially if he does a capitol run.

I think we will see Tesla grow up soon enough because I think Elon is smart enough to fix the issues and he has apparently started taking that role on even more than usual.

Personally I stay away from Tesla coming and going because as of now it's too volatile and this is coming from the guy that gambles on options more than anyone else on this board. I just don't think there is any way to take either side confidently right now. Again, the risk isn't worth the reward to me. It's a pure gamble the same as betting on black or red at roulette.

All the concerns you listed are valid...for almost any other company that is. Tesla still gets a pass from everyone for now. That will change eventually if they don't produce but I don't think we are there yet.

Good stuff.

Next couple of hours are going to be a wild ride.

Maybe you aren't OK.

Mixed earnings. Not great but not bad and trading up after hours.

ETA: RIP, TSLA puts

Change Since Close
$15.57 (5.18%)

your arse would be loose right now if you did.

This shite man.

2.2bn cash on hand

9bn current liabilities.


That is fricking ugly.