The Stock Market Fails a Breathalyzer

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Joby Aviation, which plans to begin an electric air taxi service in 2024, is worth more than Lufthansa, EasyJet or JetBlue. Does that seem right? In this market, why not? Heck, earlier this year, Tesla was worth more than the next nine car manufacturers combined, though now only the next six. Beyond Meat, made with pea protein, is worth more than the entire market for peas eaten globally—like the bumper sticker says: Imagine whirled peas. Do fundamentals even matter?

I can go on. Used-car sales platform Carvana is worth more than Volvo, Honda, Ford or Hyundai. Airbnb is worth more than Marriott and Hilton combined. Crypto-exchange Coinbase is worth more than the Nasdaq. I live at the intersection of innovation and disruption, but when companies are worth more than any possible reality, watch out.

How about those meme stocks still getting hyped on Reddit’s WallStreetBets? Those who bid GameStop shares into the stratosphere waved at Virgin Galactic Holdings as they soared by. A year ago, the stock was $6 and it is now $190—some dupes paid $483, game over. Short sellers Melvin Capital, Point 72 and D1 Capital focused on fundamentals and got their assets handed to them. Shorts lost more than $9 billion between January and June.

AMC Entertainment’s stock was scraping $2 at the end of 2020. It is now $50 thanks in part to Robinhood speculators, and the company has smartly raised cash. But what about fundamentals? Theaters are still sparse, and Disney and others are willingly putting blockbusters directly onto their streaming services—ask Scarlett Johansson about Black Widow’s ticket sales. Theaters are the new roller rinks.

Venture capital is cuckoo. After investing $120 billion in the 2000 dot-com frenzy, and just $16 billion in 2002, U.S. venture capital invested $130 billion in 2020 and then $140 billion in the first half of 2021. Startups these days raise money as “the Uber of gardening” or “Space as a Service.” Oh wait, the latter was WeWork’s pitch, whose founder Adam Neumann declared in 2017, “our valuation and size today are much more based on our energy and spirituality than it is on a multiple of revenue.” Is “spirituality” the S in SPAC?

And check this out: In June, an Italian artist auctioned an invisible statue for $18,000—in reality it was an empty box the artist claimed was a “space full of energy.” WeWork energy? Yeah, maybe fundamentals are a quaint relic of a bygone era.

The Federal Reserve deserves most of the blame. Near-zero interest rates means the market has no true north to help compare stock valuations with reality. We are navigating turbulent seas with a spinning compass. Former Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin once explained that the Fed’s job was “to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.” From the looks of it, the entire market would blow about a 0.35 (as in Dow 35000) on a breathalyzer test.

So no, fundamentals don’t matter—well, until they do. In 1989 Tokyo real estate sold for as much as $139,000 a square foot—350 times the value in Manhattan. At that price, Tokyo’s Imperial Palace was worth more than all the real estate in California. Not anymore after Japan’s triptych of lost decades.

Yahoo was once worth $125 billion and AOL $200 billion during the dot-com bubble. Both are worth 99% less today. Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently tweeted, “I thought 1999 was peak insanity, but 2021 is 1000% more insane!” Remember, when the selling starts, fear of missing out turns into fear of losing everything as speculators jump like rats off a sinking ship.

Today’s negative real yields don’t reflect reality. The Fed has warned it plans on tapering bond and mortgage purchases later this year. Someone is at least reaching for the punch bowl. The compass may stop spinning soon. Until then and always, stick with fundamentals.

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