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Started By
Message
The Great Stagnation
Posted on 6/10/14 at 11:18 am
Posted on 6/10/14 at 11:18 am
Anybody read this book? I picked it up yesterday. It's about America eating all the low hanging fruit of illegal labor, cheap land, innovative technology, and that it's run out. I don't know how to feel about this.
3
Posted on 6/10/14 at 11:33 am to Broke
I don't think the innovative technology part has run out but that presents problems of its own.
What once took ten people can be done with five and soon can be done with three and many of the more "techy" companies simply don't need an army of people that older companies do/did.
It's a tough nut to crack.
What once took ten people can be done with five and soon can be done with three and many of the more "techy" companies simply don't need an army of people that older companies do/did.
It's a tough nut to crack.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 11:36 am to Broke
Is it about John?
Posted on 6/10/14 at 12:00 pm to DWaginHTown
quote:
Is it about John?
No.Posted on 6/10/14 at 12:03 pm to Broke
I read a book (forced to, not voluntarily) with a similar premise for an economics class (or finance, I forget which) back in college.
That was....ahem....a few years ago.
Same conclusions were drawn back then. We seemed to have done okay since then.
That was....ahem....a few years ago.
Same conclusions were drawn back then. We seemed to have done okay since then.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 12:19 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Same conclusions were drawn back then. We seemed to have done okay since then.
Ya, while there may come a time when automation eventually does "take over," it is not any time soon. At present, it seems to be that tech advancement is replacing people in one place, but spawning off new technologies that do require workers. Those techs eventually get more automated and replace those workers, but then we have another new tech, and so on.
I think that continues for some time.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 1:30 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Ya, while there may come a time when automation eventually does "take over," it is not any time soon.
I don't know why people are afraid of this. I mean, I know why, but I think we should be welcoming it with open arms. It simply means we are advancing as a society as trivial jobs are being delegated to robots, leaving people to A)have more leisure time and B) focus on more important things.
It's very shortsighted IMO.
This post was edited on 6/10/14 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 6/10/14 at 2:54 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I read a book (forced to, not voluntarily) with a similar premise for an economics class (or finance, I forget which) back in college.
That was....ahem....a few years ago.
Same conclusions were drawn back then. We seemed to have done okay since then.
I haven't actually read it yet. That's why I was asking. I like to see other's opinions and then draw my conclusions after reading.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 3:12 pm to rintintin
quote:
I don't know why people are afraid of this. I mean, I know why, but I think we should be welcoming it with open arms. It simply means we are advancing as a society as trivial jobs are being delegated to robots, leaving people to A)have more leisure time and B) focus on more important things.
It's very shortsighted IMO.
Ya, I'm not afraid of it at all. I could see a day some time when technology really does free up a great deal of leisure time and capitalism (or whatever economic theory you prefer) may not be needed to efficiently allocate resources due to abundance.
I just don't think this technological shift is particularly close. But maybe it is.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 4:14 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
Ya, while there may come a time when automation eventually does "take over," it is not any time soon. At present, it seems to be that tech advancement is replacing people in one place, but spawning off new technologies that do require workers. Those techs eventually get more automated and replace those workers, but then we have another new tech, and so on.
The problem is that this next wave of automation isn't going to create jobs in 5 new areas while replacing them in 1. It's going to completely render entire segments of the labor force worthless all around the same time depending on how much government regulation holds back the technology. The lower segments of the economy will be easily replaced by machines, and people currently occupying those segments are not typically upwardly mobile, so they'll just become permanently unemployed.
If something is routine, it will be done by a combination of computers and robots. So for 85% of the most commonly handled tasks, be it buying groceries, stocking shelves, driving a truck, healthcare, or legal advice, machines will get the job done. For the 15% of the time that they can't, you'll be referred to the human specialist. I don't think people realize just how disruptive this next wave of technology is going to be. The only thing that will hold it back is regulation and comfort level with not dealing with a real person that may take a generation or 2 to adjust.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 5:08 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
The problem is that this next wave of automation isn't going to create jobs in 5 new areas while replacing them in 1. It's going to completely render entire segments of the labor force worthless all around the same time depending on how much government regulation holds back the technology. The lower segments of the economy will be easily replaced by machines, and people currently occupying those segments are not typically upwardly mobile, so they'll just become permanently unemployed.
Which is why training for 21st century careers is so important. There are still a lot of underemployed people today... yet there are a lot of job openings. Labor allocation - both by skill and my location - is completely screwed up. It's going to get worse.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 6:35 pm to Broke
quote:
I haven't actually read it yet. That's why I was asking. I like to see other's opinions and then draw my conclusions after reading.
You know what is said about supposedly smart people trying to forecast the future don't you....meanwhile they get paid to come up with shite for people to read.
Posted on 6/10/14 at 7:36 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
If something is routine, it will be done by a combination of computers and robots. So for 85% of the most commonly handled tasks, be it buying groceries, stocking shelves, driving a truck, healthcare, or legal advice, machines will get the job done. For the 15% of the time that they can't, you'll be referred to the human specialist. I don't think people realize just how disruptive this next wave of technology is going to be. The only thing that will hold it back is regulation and comfort level with not dealing with a real person that may take a generation or 2 to adjust.
And that's what's necessary for the advancement of society. At one point in our history over 80% of Americans were farmers. Now it is only about 2%, and our society didn't come crashing down.
quote:
The only thing that will hold it back is regulation
God let's hope not. Now THAT would be catastrophic in the long run.
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