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Started By
Message
Severe shortages affecting commodities
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:20 am
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:20 am
Should I be looking at
CORN (corn fund)
X (US steel)
Intel
As buys? They are all at almost 5 year highs, but how will massive shortages in corn, steel, and chips affect these stock prices?
CORN (corn fund)
X (US steel)
Intel
As buys? They are all at almost 5 year highs, but how will massive shortages in corn, steel, and chips affect these stock prices?
6
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:24 am to The Levee
I asked about commodity plays yesterday and got no response. Seems like a good inflation hedge as well.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:28 am to GREENHEAD22
CORN only went to 50 in 2012 when there was a historic drought.
Was a good buy a couple months ago but don't really love it any more.
IF a good harvest happens, it will tank and even if a good harvest doesn't happen, they will forecast a huge crop in 22 which will impact the future price lower as well.
Corn is resiliant as frick these days.
I don't know anything about the steel market but I have hedged ag commodities for all the CPG jobs I've worked.
Was a good buy a couple months ago but don't really love it any more.
IF a good harvest happens, it will tank and even if a good harvest doesn't happen, they will forecast a huge crop in 22 which will impact the future price lower as well.
Corn is resiliant as frick these days.
I don't know anything about the steel market but I have hedged ag commodities for all the CPG jobs I've worked.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:35 am to The Levee
Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) as well
although i'm pretty worried that Xiden will use "shortages" as reason to roll back alot of Trump's 'America First' incentives and everyone will move back to Chinese steel/iron
although i'm pretty worried that Xiden will use "shortages" as reason to roll back alot of Trump's 'America First' incentives and everyone will move back to Chinese steel/iron
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:40 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
everyone will move back to Chinese steel/iron
I think we already are.
Trade deficit just hit -70BN which is the highest of all time. 30BN lower to what Orange Man brought it back to in 2018 at the peak.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:45 am to STLhog
quote:
CORN only went to 50 in 2012 when there was a historic drought.
Was a good buy a couple months ago but don't really love it any more.
IF a good harvest happens, it will tank and even if a good harvest doesn't happen, they will forecast a huge crop in 22 which will impact the future price lower as well.
Corn is resiliant as frick these days.
I don't know anything about the steel market but I have hedged ag commodities for all the CPG jobs I've worked.
Great info
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:49 am to The Levee
Lumber
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:04 pm to Upperdecker
Gas is coming but it may be more of a transportation issue than production.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:10 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
Gas is coming but it may be more of a transportation issue than production.
XOM and CVX will have good years. They're performing well. A good 6 month play right now IMO.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:14 pm to STLhog
Yea O&G in general will do well.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:23 pm to The Levee
I've been long Steel (MT), O&G (OKE/XOM) the XLE and XLI for several months now and they have all been good trades.
Keep in mind that commodity based trades take a while to roll over to the stock valuations though. For instance, I bought 6 month out calls on MT like 3 months ago and they finally started turning profits just here recently. Even if steel surges in price, MT and X don't move near as drastically.
Intel IMO is the worst one you suggested. AMD is taking a huge share of their market and they're chips & tech are just better.
Keep in mind that commodity based trades take a while to roll over to the stock valuations though. For instance, I bought 6 month out calls on MT like 3 months ago and they finally started turning profits just here recently. Even if steel surges in price, MT and X don't move near as drastically.
Intel IMO is the worst one you suggested. AMD is taking a huge share of their market and they're chips & tech are just better.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:36 pm to The Levee
Lumber shortage is causing massive backlogs in the furniture industry.
Chip shortage thanks to China is rippling through all of our other industries (auto, appliances, computers, etc.)
Chip shortage thanks to China is rippling through all of our other industries (auto, appliances, computers, etc.)
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:37 pm to MrLSU
All the upside moves have already been made. Don’t chase this!
Posted on 5/4/21 at 12:48 pm to Skippy1013
Agreed besides O&G. There's a ceiling and its not that high but we aren't there yet IMO.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 2:01 pm to Hayekian serf
Ticker?
Posted on 5/4/21 at 2:04 pm to STLhog
Yea I already have a lot of exposure to the sector but hard to find value in much else right now.
I've got a lot of cash that is in a savings that I am thinking of moving into a blue-chip O&G for 6 months or so.
I've got a lot of cash that is in a savings that I am thinking of moving into a blue-chip O&G for 6 months or so.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 6:11 pm to GREENHEAD22
Conoco, Exxon, Total. Buy HOLD and collect dividends(re-invest). Do this long term. Become a wealthy investor not a trader.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 8:34 pm to STLhog
quote:
Agreed besides O&G. There's a ceiling and its not that high but we aren't there yet IMO.
Hard to go long in O&G when Saudi pulls the strings at these levels IMO. Market weight seems reasonable though. Maybe a little more. Anything more than 5% in energy now seems a bit optimistic.
Posted on 5/4/21 at 11:18 pm to slackster
The crazy thing is lumber is not really in short supply. Nobody is having problems getting it. The problem is at what price. Mills are speculators are making a killing right now but the same amount of wood is going in and out.
Most hilarious shite to me is the random wood that has zero issues at all has gone up crazy also.
Most hilarious shite to me is the random wood that has zero issues at all has gone up crazy also.
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