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Reddit linked DD on housing and the market
Posted on 5/1/22 at 9:51 am
Posted on 5/1/22 at 9:51 am
8
Posted on 5/1/22 at 10:11 am to CorkRockingham
So how can I make money on this?
Posted on 5/1/22 at 10:15 am to CorkRockingham
quote:
Thoughts as to the validity of the ideas proposed?
What ideas? I just see a video that’s 45m long of a guy walking around NYC showing off all the abandoned store fronts.
Posted on 5/1/22 at 10:21 am to CorkRockingham
The obsession with the housing market crashing is something I will never understand. People have literally been predicting/begging for this to happen since 2015 when the housing market was really starting to recover 
I guess there are just lots of poors and people out there with bad credit that can’t get a home any other way than via a crash?
Eventually one of these morons will be right because they have been predicting a ‘crash’ for damn near 8 years now
I guess there are just lots of poors and people out there with bad credit that can’t get a home any other way than via a crash?
Eventually one of these morons will be right because they have been predicting a ‘crash’ for damn near 8 years now
Posted on 5/1/22 at 10:41 am to CorkRockingham
There won't be a crash because investment companies are going to gobble them up as the value drops, keeping the average guy from getting in at a good price.
You'll own nothing and you'll be happy= you won't be able to buy a home because you'll be forced to rent as no homes will be available for purchase.
You'll own nothing and you'll be happy= you won't be able to buy a home because you'll be forced to rent as no homes will be available for purchase.
Posted on 5/1/22 at 10:42 am to CorkRockingham
Can we get cliff note? That's really long.
With inflation, I don't see how the housing market crashes. Not to mention investment firms are buying them up at a faster rate than ever.
With inflation, I don't see how the housing market crashes. Not to mention investment firms are buying them up at a faster rate than ever.
Posted on 5/1/22 at 12:09 pm to CorkRockingham
quote:
Reddit linked DD
Most of the people posting the long "DD" threads full of WSB lingo are kids or college students who have no clue what they're talking about and are spreading blatant misinformation. This one you've linked here is written by somebody who spends all of their time on SuperStonk, which is basically a fringe, online conspiracy theory group notorious for terrible takes.
This person has very little credibility to start, and I'm not going to go through everything they posted, but they completely misinterpreted what happened with Zillow's ibuying business and why the stock dropped, which makes me doubt everything they've written.
Posted on 5/1/22 at 4:22 pm to CorkRockingham
You linked a sub that prides itself in taking 6fig loses
Posted on 5/1/22 at 5:39 pm to MusclesofBrussels
What does DD mean
Posted on 5/1/22 at 7:27 pm to thelawnwranglers
due diligence
Posted on 5/1/22 at 7:33 pm to ronricks
quote:
The obsession with the housing market crashing is something I will never understand. People have literally been predicting/begging for this to happen since 2015 when the housing market was really starting to recover
It's not just the housing market, people have been begging for the stock market to crash since the last time it crashed
Posted on 5/1/22 at 7:38 pm to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
With inflation, I don't see how the housing market crashes. Not to mention investment firms are buying them up at a faster rate than ever.
I don't think a crash is coming but a price correction is due. With rates at the highest level in 10+ years and prices at ATH in most areas, I really think demand is going to be extremely low. Prices will have to drop to get buyers interested.
Posted on 5/1/22 at 10:34 pm to ronricks
quote:
I guess there are just lots of poors and people out there with bad credit that can’t get a home any other way than via a crash?
does the word "INVESTOR" ring a bell?
Posted on 5/2/22 at 12:18 am to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
Can we get cliff note? That's really long.
With inflation, I don't see how the housing market crashes. Not to mention investment firms are buying them up at a faster rate than ever.
he is saying that people/companies are leveraging their portfolios to make “cash” deals. When equities go down and margin is called, people will have to liquidate the homes to cover margin.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 6:57 am to BeYou
quote:
he is saying that people/companies are leveraging their portfolios to make “cash” deals. When equities go down and margin is called, people will have to liquidate the homes to cover margin.
Where have I seen this before?
"They mistook leverage for genius."
Posted on 5/2/22 at 7:01 am to ronricks
quote:
The obsession with the housing market crashing is something I will never understand. People have literally been predicting/begging for this to happen since 2015 when the housing market was really starting to recover
Do you honestly think that this incredible price increase the past 5-ish years is both natural and, more importantly, sustainable?
quote:
I guess there are just lots of poors and people out there with bad credit that can’t get a home any other way than via a crash?
Or people who don't want to buy an obviously inflated asset in a class that can have major domino effects?
Especially a generation who was already fricked by the 2009 housing crash and witnessed how badly that can screw over your life?
quote:
Eventually one of these morons will be right because they have been predicting a ‘crash’ for damn near 8 years now
Reminds me of 2006-2007 on the poli board when Jersey Tiger, Col. Hap, Milehigh, etc. were trying to tell people the crash was coming. Hell, that dispute is literally why the money talk board came to be.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 10:16 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Where have I seen this before?
"They mistook leverage for genius."
The kid must have just watched the Big Short for the first time.
The best response I've seen has been the following
quote:
This will probably get buried but.
I am going to keep my comments limited to my area of expertise which is commercial real estate. I have 12 years experience with a fortune 200 commercial RE firm where I advise folks on the purchase and sale of approx 2bn of commercial real estate per year and analyze about 5bn in detail in the process. In my career I have read 100s or 1000s of cmbs loan agreements and worked on 1000s of properties encumbered by cmbs mortgages
You have no idea what you’re talking about and I am afraid the fact that this is one of the top posts in this subreddit speaks volumes to the quality of content on here.
CMBS mortgage payments do not vary based on the occupancy of a building and CMBS mortgage payments are not added to the end of the loan. The payments are fixed the same as any other loan except they are much stricter in terms of on-going reserves and cash flow sweeps for example starting X months before any major tenant lease comes up for maturity.
If you are unable to make the debt service on your CMBS mortgage it will go into special servicing and they will sweep your cash flow NOT just allow you to pay less on the mortgage. Where did you get this idea?
You posted a video of one small retail sub market that’s not well occupied and you’re extrapolating that video to all commercial real estate property types nationwide to say that occupancy is low?
If property values fall below outstanding loan balances such that owners are underwater true we will see them stop paying their mortgages and hand back the keys to the banks or special servicer but this isn’t happening.
The typical cmbs mortgage is 60% ltv at the high end at the beginning of the loan and although many times have a couple years or full term interest only the balance if anything decreases over time so it will take a big decrease in value for defaults to occur
And the value of a commercial property is not directly linear to occupancy. Vacant buildings still have value. Due to the rapidly changing environment brought about by Covid and growing e-commerce many properties are more valuable vacant vs leased so you can tear them down and build industrial.
This post was edited on 5/2/22 at 10:17 am
Posted on 5/2/22 at 10:20 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Do you honestly think that this incredible price increase the past 5-ish years is both natural and, more importantly, sustainable?
Home is only worth what someone it willing to pay for it.
quote:
Or people who don't want to buy an obviously inflated asset in a class that can have major domino effects?
Then don't buy. Rent. Move in your parents basement. Move in with someone. There are options.
quote:
Especially a generation who was already fricked by the 2009 housing crash and witnessed how badly that can screw over your life?
Housing prices go up and down. History has shown us this. Too many people try to use their home as a piggy bank, casino, or lottery ticket. It is a home. A place to live and raise a family. Don't try and treat as a get rich quick scheme.
People that are begging for a crash are weird. If you don't want to buy in an overinflated market don't. Sit it out.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 10:38 am to CorkRockingham
The land development market crashes this year
I know it's definitely dubious at best to put your trust in r/wsb, but the above link is a source that I have been reading on the regular and I DO trust. That being said, what is the right move with your money knowing that this is about to happen? It's one thing to know a train is barreling toward your stalled car on the tracks, quite another to know how to turn that into some kind of windfall.
I know it's definitely dubious at best to put your trust in r/wsb, but the above link is a source that I have been reading on the regular and I DO trust. That being said, what is the right move with your money knowing that this is about to happen? It's one thing to know a train is barreling toward your stalled car on the tracks, quite another to know how to turn that into some kind of windfall.
Posted on 5/2/22 at 12:27 pm to ronricks
quote:
Home is only worth what someone it willing to pay for it.
So you either can't or won't answer my question.
quote:
Then don't buy. Rent. Move in your parents basement. Move in with someone. There are options.
The issue is these people want to buy, but understand they're dealing with a heavily manipulated market being unfairly propped up with government money. Home ownership is like college tuition: getting pricing juiced via government welfare.
quote:
Housing prices go up and down. History has shown us this. Too many people try to use their home as a piggy bank, casino, or lottery ticket. It is a home. A place to live and raise a family. Don't try and treat as a get rich quick scheme.
What are you talking about?
I'm talking about a generation who came into their home-buying life when the asset class was inflated, many of whom bought assets that became terribly underwater within 6 months. Or the younger portions of that generation who entered into the market once the government had injected itself into the industry to artificially prop up prices, where starter homes are unaffordable.
I'm not talking about HELOCs or making a home a "piggy bank". I'm talking about people trying to buy homes as homes, that are 25-100% more today than 3-4 years ago, due to government intervention across the board.
quote:
People that are begging for a crash are weird. I
I believe in markets. I want markets to operate freely.
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