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wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
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re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
quote:

I know you're being tongue in cheek


Or was I? I rolled FB 250 weeklies to August this morning /NQ exploded AH


RedStickBR
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2009
13784 posts

re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
Nice call


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buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
33392 posts
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re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
quote:

I think it was likely more related to the employment numbers sucking wind.
Not to mention the shorter the time frame, the less rational and efficient a market is, particularly when we’re talking about intraday movements. In addition, I don’t think the market has been very rational and/or efficient during the past few months because understandably we’re all working with way more uncertainty than usual, particularly moving forward.

In addition and somewhat related to the jobs report were 2 sub components that had positive contributions that are not particularly positive overall and/or may not have that contribution going forward given the potential policy changes.

Specifically, the two sub components that has a positive contribution were net exports of goods and services (+0.68%) and government consumption expenditures and investments, specifically at the federal level (+1.23%).

The net exports data point is not particularly positive because it was a result of contracting trade both ways, just a large contraction in exports. There is a pretty strong correlation (I think like 0.7 or so) between the change in the trade deficit (negative net) and change in GDP. In other words, when the trade deficit increases, GDP increases. In this case, it decreased, and it has been for the last 4 quarters, even before the pandemic.

In addition, with the new jobless claims continuing to be very high, this likely means that there are both more jobs and business that are permanently lost and trade both ways may continue to contract, and the deficit may shrink even more, but that’s not a good sign.

In addition, unless they’re categorized elsewhere, I suspect the UI insurance expansion and the stimulus checks likely contributed to the federal expenditures having a larger and more positive contribution. But if those are less moving forward (whether they should or shouldn’t be) then this won’t have as positive of a contribution moving forward.

Finally, the nominal change in GDP actually had a larger decrease than real GDP, about 1.4% lower on an annualized basis. That means that there was deflation in this quarter and deflation is obviously bad for the economy. So if that continues, this would be a bad sign, but even if it doesn’t, and we start to see some modest inflation again, while this would probably be a good sign, the subsequent real GDP estimates will be offset by that. So the top line growth estimates may not be as positive as they indicate, even if that’s a positive sign overall.


RedStickBR
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2009
13784 posts

re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
I was away from this board and TD in general for a pretty good while, but for some sporadic posting here and there. But now that I've been posting more regularly again, I'm reminded that it's posts like these that keep me coming back. Really good stuff This completely escaped me:

quote:

Finally, the nominal change in GDP actually had a larger decrease than real GDP, about 1.4% lower on an annualized basis. That means that there was deflation in this quarter and deflation is obviously bad for the economy.
This post was edited on 7/31 at 9:10 am


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RedStickBR
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2009
13784 posts

re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
Also, I find it interesting you have FB, AAPL and AMZN all trading significantly higher this morning, yet the S&P500 is flat. If Big Tech can't lead this market anymore ... look out below.
This post was edited on 7/31 at 9:18 am


SECFan1995
Col. of Charleston Fan
Member since Sep 2015
7770 posts
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re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
It was a tidbit if you didn't look hard but they failed on initial 2nd stimulus talks.

Next week is likely to get ugly as frick based off that. I give it 1 week at the most before Trump is begging and fighting to get the Senate and Congress to come back.


buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
33392 posts
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re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
quote:

I'm reminded that it's posts like these that keep me coming back.
Although now your judgment is in question.


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buckeye_vol
Ohio State Fan
Member since Jul 2014
33392 posts
 Online 

re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
quote:

It was a tidbit if you didn't look hard but they failed on initial 2nd stimulus talks.
Not unlike the last round, or just any round of anything in the dysfunctional world of government and politics. I suspect they’ll put on a show for a little bit longer then eventually figure something out.


wutangfinancial
LSU Fan
Dallas, TX
Member since Sep 2015
4155 posts
 Online 

re: Q2 GDP, annualized, quarter over quarter -32.9%
All it takes is a tiny drawdown on headlines to get something pushed through it's just pathetic at this point.


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