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Plan thru election
Posted on 10/11/20 at 10:48 am
Posted on 10/11/20 at 10:48 am
I have a feeling Marijuana stocks will run up until election with the Biden team saying they will legalize. I have been buying call options up until November and puts for after as I think Trump will win. I have also been buying call options for oil plays in anticipation of a trump win. I think oil is set to make a run with a trump win in 2021 as big investors start rotating out of tech and into energy. Any thoughts?
3
Posted on 10/11/20 at 11:31 am to Gulf bang
What oil plays are you buying? Why would big investors get into energy? Have you been following energy for the last year?
Oil markets were over supplied precovid, so I do not see a scenario where oil gets out of the $40s for a while(years). Companies without much debt and tier 1 acreage can survive with these prices but no one will flourish. A lot of companies are going to go away as credit gets tighter.
Oil markets were over supplied precovid, so I do not see a scenario where oil gets out of the $40s for a while(years). Companies without much debt and tier 1 acreage can survive with these prices but no one will flourish. A lot of companies are going to go away as credit gets tighter.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 11:41 am to 8thyearsenior
I’m heavy into MRO and MPC. Very undervalued and I think with a Trump win it runs up. It’s just my opinion but I think the Tech bubble will eventually burst and oil will get a boost. Ive been following oil for quite a while and know it is oversupplied but in the short term I hope to ride the election hype and a Trump win. I know this all blows up with a Biden win.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 12:10 pm to Gulf bang
The market hates uncertainty so if the election results are dragged out for weeks it would likely be a depressing effect.
Oil's comeback looks to me to be dependent on the return to more or less normal in a post covid move. Oil stocks are certainly depressed and will come back over time. The question is over how much time.
Oil's comeback looks to me to be dependent on the return to more or less normal in a post covid move. Oil stocks are certainly depressed and will come back over time. The question is over how much time.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 12:32 pm to Gulf bang
I'll keep putting money in my mutual funds every paycheck like I have been the last 2 decades. Basically, continue with my plan that I've always had.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 1:33 pm to Gulf bang
quote:
I’m heavy into MRO
From their last 10k filing where they used $55 per barrel, their SMOG(10755)-debt(8092) divided by shares(937) comes out to $2.84 per share. It's currently trading over $4 per share while oil is way under $55 a barrel.
Posted on 10/11/20 at 5:04 pm to Gulf bang
quote:
Ive been following oil for quite a while and know it is oversupplied but in the short term I hope to ride the election hype and a Trump win.
all I see when someone mentions “oil stocks” is opportunity cost
Posted on 10/11/20 at 7:26 pm to cgrand
Yup, given the circumstances surrounding oil, it's unlikely to get above the $40's for years.
It's not even a case where you can go "be greedy when others are fearful" and "value play". Most are more like a value trap.
That's not to say that there won't be moves to be made outside of tech that might turn out to be gold going forward as we transition back to a more normal world, but I don't think oil is going to be included there. If you want to play the reopening trade, you'd probably be better off looking at other things involved in travel.
It's not even a case where you can go "be greedy when others are fearful" and "value play". Most are more like a value trap.
That's not to say that there won't be moves to be made outside of tech that might turn out to be gold going forward as we transition back to a more normal world, but I don't think oil is going to be included there. If you want to play the reopening trade, you'd probably be better off looking at other things involved in travel.
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