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Opec deal and Oil/Gas Stocks
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:22 pm
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:22 pm
What do you guys think will be the impact on oil & gas stocks next week? Slight bump? Gradual growth? Stall?
3
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:28 pm to Barrister
Until demand returns.... oil is going to stay under $30.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:44 pm to jcaz
quote:
Until demand returns.
Auto travel will bounce back before air travel. People are about to get a little " old school" and load up cars for beach vacations as opposed to flights/cruises to European or Carribean locales.
Posted on 4/11/20 at 9:58 pm to Barrister
quote:Significant drop.
What do you guys think will be the impact on oil & gas stocks next week?
Posted on 4/11/20 at 11:32 pm to LSURussian
All 3 of the oil dependent markets are in bottom of cycle. This may speed up bankruptcies of smaller guys, in turn, moving out of bottom cycle faster.
That being said, earnings will be terrible for oil/chemical guys this year into next
That being said, earnings will be terrible for oil/chemical guys this year into next
Posted on 4/12/20 at 2:34 pm to jimjackandjose
BUY!!! Trump gonna cut a historic deal to reduce global production and get prices up.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 2:50 pm to SmackoverHawg
It's the same deal proposed last week, Mexico was just holding it up and they apparently got on board over the weekend. IMO whatever move this deal was gonna spur has already happened.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 2:54 pm to rintintin
The cut wasnt enough to matter. Demand is way down
Posted on 4/12/20 at 3:03 pm to jimjackandjose
Demand will go back up and soon. Economy will open up sooner than later. Lots of catch up to do. Demand was there, the ref just blew the whistle.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 3:44 pm to SmackoverHawg
Supply was greater than demand in many chemical markets
Perhaps, cabin fever will boost travel, but people without jobs dont travel
Quick cuts for families under a budget -
vacations
Going out to eat
Multiple trips to town vs 1 planned efficient trip
Visiting friends out of state or any other excessive travel
Going to events
All of these impact demand
Perhaps, cabin fever will boost travel, but people without jobs dont travel
Quick cuts for families under a budget -
vacations
Going out to eat
Multiple trips to town vs 1 planned efficient trip
Visiting friends out of state or any other excessive travel
Going to events
All of these impact demand
Posted on 4/12/20 at 3:53 pm to jimjackandjose
Not to mention cruise ships not using fuel, airlines not using fuel and businesses shut down not using fuel like before. I think this will take longer to recover than most people think.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 5:22 pm to SmackoverHawg
quote:
Demand was there, the ref just blew the whistle.
Yeah but when he blows the whistle to start the next play the players aren't on the field.
If you think demand is about to snap back to previous levels you are insane.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 6:02 pm to Barrister
quote:
Auto travel will bounce back before air travel.
This.
When the dust settles & tax season & SBA processing is over, an extended road trip is already planned. No schedule, just a list of stops to make before I head home. Won’t care about the price per gallon. Won’t even check the weather, cause I’m going anyhow.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 6:07 pm to Barrister
Same trajectory...prices fell so far that these cuts are probably not enough. Right now in international markets wti and Brent are slightly down...a “meh” response. But Monday am it will be interesting to see how it trades in the US.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 6:33 pm to cwill
Certainly not a lot of excitement in the Futures markets right now
Posted on 4/12/20 at 8:14 pm to Keys Open Doors
I see that the US, Mex. and Brazil will cut 3.7 MMbbl and mexico is only 100K of that. What split is the US and Brazil and how is the US going to enforce it?
Posted on 4/12/20 at 9:02 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
What split is the US and how is the US going to enforce it?
Just get your popcorn and watch
I asked this question during our staff meeting last week and a colleague said there's a precedent for it and the states, not the Fed, enforced it. I was too young to remember.
But I haven't looked that up yet.
This post was edited on 4/12/20 at 9:07 pm
Posted on 4/12/20 at 9:17 pm to castorinho
quote:interesting. I'm not familiar with such a precedent, but I'm only in my early 40's. Would be curious of what was the event.
I asked this question during our staff meeting last week and a colleague said there's a precedent for it
According to WSJ:
quote:
Under the final deal disclosed Sunday, Mexico will cut 100,000 barrels a day of output, some 250,000 barrels fewer than Saudi Arabia initially wanted. The U.S. unlocked the standoff by pledging to compensate for the Mexican amount with 300,000 barrels of reductions of its own, the delegates were told.
It couldn’t be determined whether that was in addition to other U.S. cuts, or how the U.S. cuts would be implemented.
I guess theoretically, the US government could purchase and store oil to remove it from the open market. I don't think we have that much available storage though.
This post was edited on 4/12/20 at 9:27 pm
Posted on 4/12/20 at 10:12 pm to castorinho
It's been done before by the TRRC but it was back before WW2.
Posted on 4/12/20 at 10:19 pm to jerryc436
quote:
Not to mention cruise ships not using fuel, airlines not using fuel and businesses shut down not using fuel like before. I think this will take longer to recover than most people think.
I always see this talked about but do we have any real figures of what airlines and cruse ships use in fuel vs the rest of the driving public? I don’t think people will be rushing to air travel and cruse vacations right away but I think once all companies get back to work they will and people will drive more and with hope burn up more fuel in the short term
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