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re: oil stocks...which one would you buy for the long term and why

Posted on 2/27/18 at 6:05 pm to
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82010 posts
Posted on 2/27/18 at 6:05 pm to
quote:


How do you like the midstream business?
It's great. My base isn't as much as the U/S guys, but bonus and LTIs put me very close to (if not better than) my peers, and the stability is good.
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6495 posts
Posted on 2/27/18 at 9:19 pm to
You do realize exxon has upstream and downstream and is growing their chemicals portfolio significantly correct?

Both CVX and XOM are good for 12% in the next year.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 2/27/18 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

Denbury: they do CO2 injection for oil recovery , there is a ruling coming out that will pay a subsidy for injecting CO2 and no royalty for CO2 recovery oil production.


Theyre teetering on bankruptcy.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 2/27/18 at 9:39 pm to
quote:

Chesapeake


Still crushed by massive debt, but you can ride the baseless enthusiasim for his dog, I guess.
This post was edited on 2/28/18 at 7:44 am
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 2/27/18 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

PetroQuest (PQ) - solely on the basis of their plans to move into the Austin Chalk formation, Central Louisiana. Stock price is low.


Tight rock, no porosity - they’ll get crushed.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19579 posts
Posted on 2/27/18 at 11:01 pm to
I decided against it, I missed WLL somehow getting north of 40, which would have put me up about 20% and given me a chance to unload it.
Posted by thegreatboudini
Member since Oct 2008
6440 posts
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:52 pm to
quote:


Tight rock, no porosity - they’ll get crushed.



Tight cap rock for sure, but I wouldn't say no porosity. Everyone is gearing up to stick the chalk in central LA. Pump 500k of 100 mesh down there to prop those natural fractures open, end it with a linear gel sweep and you'll see all the porosity you need.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 2/28/18 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

Tight cap rock for sure, but I wouldn't say no porosity. Everyone is gearing up to stick the chalk in central LA. Pump 500k of 100 mesh down there to prop those natural fractures open, end it with a linear gel sweep and you'll see all the porosity you need.


You will create fractures with a big frac but if there's not porosity you'll drain those fracs and that's it...big IPs that collapse. Right now everyone is hyped by that big EOG IP in Avoyelles...it's just an IP.
Posted by thegreatboudini
Member since Oct 2008
6440 posts
Posted on 2/28/18 at 6:18 pm to
Different ways to skin a cat.

Many chalk wells are tanking in south Texas too after 6-10 months, but when they only cost 1.3m to frac a 7,000’ lateral nobody is really worried. A smaller operator is licking his chops for this 90bbls/day mailbox money next year after it did all the original operators needed it to do.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 2/28/18 at 9:44 pm to
I’m pretty sure based on your two posts that you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Posted by b-rab2
N. Louisiana
Member since Dec 2005
12575 posts
Posted on 3/1/18 at 4:37 am to
quote:

you'll see all the porosity you need.


you can't make Porosity..
Posted by thegreatboudini
Member since Oct 2008
6440 posts
Posted on 3/1/18 at 6:42 am to
I’m not a reservoir engineer that’s for sure, but I’ve been exposed to the chalk enough to know it’s going to produce in central Louisiana.
Posted by thegreatboudini
Member since Oct 2008
6440 posts
Posted on 3/1/18 at 6:47 am to
I never said you were creating porosity nor that you can create porosity. You’re creating permeability.
Posted by b-rab2
N. Louisiana
Member since Dec 2005
12575 posts
Posted on 3/1/18 at 7:21 am to
That is correct.. I just hope they dont' go in balls deep like SWN did for the Brown Dense in S. Ark a few years ago. brown dense doesn't have any porosity, there fore no oil/gas.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 3/6/18 at 7:44 am to
LINK

An interesting read. It uses "I calculated an average using the finbox.io fair value upside and analyst upside to create a blended upside which I then used to rank the most undervalued holdings." Which is about kind of like using Trefis, and is probably just as accurate, or inaccurate.
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50336 posts
Posted on 3/6/18 at 7:53 am to
quote:

oil stocks...which one would you buy for the long term and why


No because I'm exposed to them long-term already though my career. No need to double down. I've thought about removing them completely, even though my index funds.
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22210 posts
Posted on 3/7/18 at 7:05 am to
quote:

PQ has also been drilling some huge CV wells in East Texas lately.

Charles Goodson, CEO; Earnings call (March 5, 2018)

"Another significant accomplishment occurred in the end of 2017 with our entry into the emerging Louisiana, Austin Chalk trends. This reemerging world play now stretches across the entire central section of Louisiana encompassing at least 8 parishes. Several premier large cap operators and a number of very experienced private independents have established substantial leasehold positions. PetroQuest, as an early mover in this trend, was able to secure approximately 25,000 acres in what we believe will ultimately be determined as the core of the highest oil concentrated portion of the trend."

"What highlights the dramatic impact fracking had on the Eagles Ranch well is that the toe is located only approximately 1,200 feet from the heel of the Dominique well, which was completed without a frac by Anadarko in 2010 and cumulated only 14,000 barrels of oil, that’s a 5x uplift in production in just a little over three months. We believe that when fracking is applied to this formation and a Matrix porosity has the opportunity to contribute along with the natural fractures. This completely changes the performance of this formation. This is why we and others are guardedly optimistic about the future development this time around. We are currently in a permitting process of our initial well and expect to commence the location build-out in the next few months. Our current plans called for our initial well to spread in the second quarter of 2018. While very early, we feel the significant activity will occur as a result of the enormous leasing activity across Louisiana should result in a number of new data points relatively soon. All of which will come very experienced companies that points state-of-the-art technology."

Also, interesting Q&A section down the page..... PetroQuest Earnings Call Transcript
Posted by TigerDog83
Member since Oct 2005
8273 posts
Posted on 3/7/18 at 7:54 pm to
How can petroquest know what the "core" of the la Austin chalk is when only one well has been drilled (EOG Eagles ranch) to test this new concept on the Louisiana side? Maybe this idea works in a couple of isolated pockets but it's way too early to be claiming they own core acreage in a one well play. The one well looks to be sub economic anyhow. This concept is different than the traditional deep chalk at masters creek, cheneyville, Burr ferry, etc. I for one believe that it won't amount to much for the hype it is receiving currently but we'll see.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19579 posts
Posted on 3/8/18 at 5:56 pm to
PQ has been down big the last couple of days, down 10% today.
Posted by lsuoilengr
Member since Aug 2008
4765 posts
Posted on 3/10/18 at 2:23 am to
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