- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: My case for a bear market L recovery, and that the SP 500 hasn't bottomed yet
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:15 pm to gatorsimz
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:15 pm to gatorsimz
quote:
Poor economic data/earnings have been priced in.
To a certain degree I have been making this argument for 2-3 weeks. The market is way smarter than anyone here.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:16 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
The volatility is great for some short term earnings. Where people will get in trouble is following the expert opinions that now is the time to buy "quality." The quality stocks are not a value right now.
I don’t disagree, and that is why in my cash accounts I have been disciplined at booking profits, not getting caught up in “could have sold for higher”. That way, if we sell off again I can buy again. If we don’t, then oh well. I made money.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:18 pm to gatorsimz
quote:
Also, you (and many others) are vastly discounting the $2 trillion infusion
That everyone is still waiting for?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:20 pm to MillerLiteTime
I get where you are coming from and it’s easy to get into the doom and gloom, but today, I’m not in that camp. My business is down 80% but I worked yesterday and today. I didn’t plan on working tomorrow or Friday, but I learned that more of my clients are opening back up and now I am working tomorrow. Things are looking up and I don’t see these businesses shutting back down again after opening no matter what happens.
We shall see, but for today? I’m seeing the end of the tunnel and I am glad for that.
We shall see, but for today? I’m seeing the end of the tunnel and I am glad for that.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:24 pm to Janky
quote:
To a certain degree I have been making this argument for 2-3 weeks. The market is way smarter than anyone here.
So the market has already priced a bad economy in? Let's just take Apple for example. Today it is trading at November 2019 levels. You think going in reverse to a few months ago is enough to make up for a total economic shutdown in an already overpriced market?
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:28 pm to SuddenJerk
A lot of China is still shut down. People are free to be outside and go to jobs at the office or manufacturing, but most of the restaurants and malls are still closed.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:54 pm to MillerLiteTime
I think the federal government has propped up the country for the next 3 months with the stimulus checks,aid for companies and extra unemployment benefits. If we can get a handle on this virus in that timeframe then I think we come back strong. If virus goes past that then really bad news for a while.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 8:59 pm to FLObserver
I’ve sold out of some positions. I’m sort of skeptical that we keep rising after q1 earnings.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:05 pm to MillerLiteTime
Yep. Everyone here was saying how bad the market was going to drop when the last 2 employment numbers came out. The market zoomed. The market expects bad numbers. The market is looking beyond the next quarter in my opinion.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:22 pm to Janky
the market doesnt even know what the future looks like, nobody does.
that uncertainty and we are "zooming" - something isnt right there.
that uncertainty and we are "zooming" - something isnt right there.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 9:54 pm to JakeRStephenes
quote:
this disruption was not a technical one, period.
The market being levered to the tits didn't help anything, it exacerbates any outside event
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:47 pm to gatorsimz
quote:
Poor economic data/earnings have been priced in.
How do you price in what you dont know?
We have no idea how bad earnings will be, how long earnings will be depressed, we dont know what the new debt loads will be, and we dont know how quickly industries like restaurants and travel will reach pre virus levels. What is reasonable to overlook and when does bad data become a problem?
If the markets overestimate the timeliness of the recovery, there will be another great buying opportunity this summer.
Posted on 4/8/20 at 10:54 pm to LSUTOM07
good discussion, appreciate everyone's input
Posted on 4/9/20 at 2:24 am to MillerLiteTime
Why would you buy apple right now? I'm buying company's that are trading at 2009 levels, not November 2019 levels...
Posted on 4/9/20 at 3:07 am to AaronDeTiger
There is at least a possibility that we have been enjoying a tech valuation bubble and it has yet to pop. Small caps have been down significantly but the value attributed to big tech firms is still very high - perhaps in part because people perceived them as safe investments. I don't think anyone really knows with certainly what the market will do but the volume is lower, the volatility is high, and anecdotally a lot of people are treating this as a way to make money speculating. Maybe we all keep dancing a while longer but this is unstable at face value.
But it isn't just airlines, oil, restaurants, and hotels that are going to be hit by the last two months. Real estate is going to be tested and hopefully will not falter significantly. Supposedly one of three people paying rent missed their last payment. If even 20% of people can't afford to pay their mortgages in 2-3 months we are going to see way more defaults than you want. In that unpleasant scenario a big chunk of Americans would have lost major portions of their retirement savings, lost significant wages, and potentially lost their home equity.
This is not good for the large numbers of especially working and middle class people that are staring down some tough financial hits.
But it isn't just airlines, oil, restaurants, and hotels that are going to be hit by the last two months. Real estate is going to be tested and hopefully will not falter significantly. Supposedly one of three people paying rent missed their last payment. If even 20% of people can't afford to pay their mortgages in 2-3 months we are going to see way more defaults than you want. In that unpleasant scenario a big chunk of Americans would have lost major portions of their retirement savings, lost significant wages, and potentially lost their home equity.
This is not good for the large numbers of especially working and middle class people that are staring down some tough financial hits.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:26 am to LSUTOM07
quote:
How do you price in what you dont know?
We have no idea how bad earnings will be, how long earnings will be depressed, we dont know what the new debt loads will be, and we dont know how quickly industries like restaurants and travel will reach pre virus levels. What is reasonable to overlook and when does bad data become a problem?
If the markets overestimate the timeliness of the recovery, there will be another great buying opportunity this summer.
Agree with everything you said. However, it's possible that analysts had adjusted their earnings estimates based on the initial COVID modeling which has been revealed to be extremely overstated.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:46 pm to AaronDeTiger
quote:
Why would you buy apple right now? I'm buying company's that are trading at 2009 levels, not November 2019 levels...
That's my point. The "experts" are telling people to avoid the speculative stocks and buy "quality" at "discounts" right now. My argument is that anything considered quality is not at much of a discount yet and that people will be hurting for a few years if they buy in to those names that have only dropped 10% or so. Those are the names that I think will have a delayed crash in a month or two.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 11:19 pm to MillerLiteTime
quote:
2. The assumption that 2-3 months of non-existent income for a business can somehow be "made up" later.
How is it any different than a startup? In fact, its X times better, because you have an actual proven business plan in place. With a verified customer base, too
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News