re: My case for a bear market L recovery, and that the SP 500 hasn't bottomed yet

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The volatility is great for some short term earnings. Where people will get in trouble is following the expert opinions that now is the time to buy "quality." The quality stocks are not a value right now.

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I don’t disagree, and that is why in my cash accounts I have been disciplined at booking profits, not getting caught up in “could have sold for higher”. That way, if we sell off again I can buy again. If we don’t, then oh well. I made money.

I get where you are coming from and it’s easy to get into the doom and gloom, but today, I’m not in that camp. My business is down 80% but I worked yesterday and today. I didn’t plan on working tomorrow or Friday, but I learned that more of my clients are opening back up and now I am working tomorrow. Things are looking up and I don’t see these businesses shutting back down again after opening no matter what happens.

We shall see, but for today? I’m seeing the end of the tunnel and I am glad for that.

A lot of China is still shut down. People are free to be outside and go to jobs at the office or manufacturing, but most of the restaurants and malls are still closed.

I’ve sold out of some positions. I’m sort of skeptical that we keep rising after q1 earnings.

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this disruption was not a technical one, period.

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The market being levered to the tits didn't help anything, it exacerbates any outside event

good discussion, appreciate everyone's input

There is at least a possibility that we have been enjoying a tech valuation bubble and it has yet to pop. Small caps have been down significantly but the value attributed to big tech firms is still very high - perhaps in part because people perceived them as safe investments. I don't think anyone really knows with certainly what the market will do but the volume is lower, the volatility is high, and anecdotally a lot of people are treating this as a way to make money speculating. Maybe we all keep dancing a while longer but this is unstable at face value.

But it isn't just airlines, oil, restaurants, and hotels that are going to be hit by the last two months. Real estate is going to be tested and hopefully will not falter significantly. Supposedly one of three people paying rent missed their last payment. If even 20% of people can't afford to pay their mortgages in 2-3 months we are going to see way more defaults than you want. In that unpleasant scenario a big chunk of Americans would have lost major portions of their retirement savings, lost significant wages, and potentially lost their home equity.

This is not good for the large numbers of especially working and middle class people that are staring down some tough financial hits.

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Why would you buy apple right now? I'm buying company's that are trading at 2009 levels, not November 2019 levels...

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That's my point. The "experts" are telling people to avoid the speculative stocks and buy "quality" at "discounts" right now. My argument is that anything considered quality is not at much of a discount yet and that people will be hurting for a few years if they buy in to those names that have only dropped 10% or so. Those are the names that I think will have a delayed crash in a month or two.