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2
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:54 am to LSURussian
That's not this morning's jobs data. It's Vox's interpretation of JOLTS data.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:55 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:So you're basing your "it sounds made up" statement on the premise that the job openings vs. workers available numbers completely reversed in the last 30 days and are no longer valid?
we're talking about August data here
That reveals even more desperation by you than usual....
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:00 am to LSURussian
quote:
So you're basing your "it sounds made up" statement on the premise that the job openings vs. workers available numbers completely reversed in the last 30 days and are no longer valid?
that was a response to bard talking about july data and suggesting better august data
and it has no bearing on what BLS claims or doesn't claim about shortages explaining weak hiring numbers
This post was edited on 9/6/19 at 11:00 am
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:14 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
we're talking about August data here, but nice hustle
Fair point.
quote:
While average monthly job gains of 158,000 this year are down sharply from 223,000 in 2018, the pace is still more than enough to keep pace with population growth. In addition, the jobless rate held near a half-century low and average hourly earnings topped forecasts.
So job creation is still keeping pace with population growth and we have fewer workers than we have jobs.
What do you expect as we teeter around peak employment?
quote:
Higher wages and looser hiring requirements are drawing more Americans in from the sidelines. The participation rate, or share of working-age people in the labor force, increased to 63.2%, while the employment-population ratio rose to a 10-year high of 60.9%, both up 0.2 percentage point from the prior month.
quote:
In addition, two key early-warning indicators in the U.S. jobs market -- hiring for temporary-help positions and weekly working hours -- strengthened in August.
There’s also the possibility statistical quirks skewed the August payrolls figure lower. Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC, had flagged a potential undershoot for August payrolls that will ultimately be revised higher by the Labor Department.
The market does seem to be slowing, I have no problem admitting that. Just like with the hullabaloo about the yield curve though, you have to look at why it's happening. As stated above we have more jobs than workers. That's a grand problem to have (and a damned sight better than the opposite) but it's going to naturally mean a slowdown in job creation.
As long as Confidence keeps driving high Spending, Unemployment will remain low and Wages will continue to outpace Inflation. If we see another month or two of low Confidence then that's a different story but as of right now there's no reason to think Confidence will drop enough to change things for at least the rest of this year.
***EDIT to include link***
LINK
This post was edited on 9/6/19 at 11:17 am
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:17 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
it has no bearing on what BLS claims or doesn't claim about shortages explaining weak hiring numbers
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:18 am to Bard
quote:
What do you expect as we teeter around peak employment?
I'd expect wages and inflation to rise faster than they are. I'm honestly not thoroughly convinced we're there even yet. That is why I think there was an argument for the Fed to have held off way longer than it did, going back to 2015, but even including December 2018.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:19 am to LSURussian
nice meme.
so did BLS blame weak hiring on JOLTS data, as you said they did, or nah?
so did BLS blame weak hiring on JOLTS data, as you said they did, or nah?
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:34 am to 90proofprofessional
The jobs data was not "weak." It came in lower than forecast. Your word parsing continues.
It was Kudlow who gave a reason for some of that shortfall. If you don't want to believe it because it doesn't fit your "sky is falling" narrative, that's your problem.
Table A-15 of the BLS report shows a positive employment trend in almost every way unemployment is measured compared to one year ago. But please don't concede for a moment that is a good thing.....
LINK
It was Kudlow who gave a reason for some of that shortfall. If you don't want to believe it because it doesn't fit your "sky is falling" narrative, that's your problem.
Table A-15 of the BLS report shows a positive employment trend in almost every way unemployment is measured compared to one year ago. But please don't concede for a moment that is a good thing.....
LINK
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:42 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
I'd expect wages and inflation to rise faster than they are. I'm honestly not thoroughly convinced we're there even yet.
It's uncharted territory (at least as long as BLS has been this granular in the research and reporting).
To me it just makes sense that the longer we sit with more jobs than workers we see wages increase, but at a slower pace as that market tries to find other ways to increase entry wages that don't overly impact profits or negatively impact existing wages, or even to try finding other ways of enticing more of the labor force off the sidelines and back into the workforce.
To try using the slowing job numbers as proof of an economic downturn in this scenario though is very premature.
This post was edited on 9/6/19 at 11:48 am
Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:03 pm to LSURussian
quote:
The jobs data was not "weak." It came in lower than forecast. Your word parsing continues.
Lol at you literally parsing while accusing me of parsing. But I just did a quick check, it's the 4th-weakest of this administration's tenure. I think weak is fair, especially when considering that 25k of that number is temp Census workers.
quote:
It was Kudlow who gave a reason for some of that shortfall. If you don't want to believe it because it doesn't fit your "sky is falling" narrative, that's your problem.
If you want to try to frame my "narrative", try to at least come close to getting it right.
BTW, Kudlow also described these numbers as "unbelievable, blowout".
quote:
Table A-15 of the BLS report shows a positive employment trend in almost every way unemployment is measured compared to one year ago.
How many times must I say I don't think a recession is imminent, much less already in progress?
Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:05 pm to 90proofprofessional
Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:05 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
no one's breathlessly posting about how the official jobs numbers missed by 30k
That's because the unemployment remained at 3.7% and New low unemployment record set for Minorities. That coupled with a RECORD number of people WORKING!!!
quote:
The number of people employed in the United States hit a record 157,878,000 in August, the 21st record set under President Donald Trump, according to the employment report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
That's an increase of 590,000 from the record 157,228,000 employed in July.
:usa:Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:05 pm to Bard
quote:
To try using the slowing job numbers as proof of an economic downturn in this scenario though is very premature.
I agree with that. But growth in everything has shown a clear deceleration since Qs 2&3 2018. That includes consumption, which as you say is keeping growth moving.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:06 pm to LSURussian
compelling!
Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:23 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
But growth in everything has shown a clear deceleration since Qs 2&3 2018. That includes consumption, which as you say is keeping growth moving.
And it will continue to grow, although more slowly, as long as Unemployment remains low and Confidence remains high. We're in a bit of a point of diminishing (or rather 'diminished") returns until more workers are enticed to fill those empty positions.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:25 pm to Bard
quote:
as long as Unemployment remains low and Confidence remains high
that's kind-of tautological, as both of those are lagging indicators
business sentiment is more of a leading indicator, and has a lot more to do with business investment and hiring
Posted on 9/6/19 at 12:55 pm to LSURussian
What does not having enough workers mean for the U.S? we can't keep up with demand and supply chains are breaking Does that mean we are creating a consumption bubble because of perpetually low rates?
-deep thoughts that don't make sense
-deep thoughts that don't make sense
Posted on 9/6/19 at 1:44 pm to yatesdog38
quote:First it means rising wages which we're already seeing.
What does not having enough workers mean for the U.S?
quote:What is a "consumption bubble"? That's the first time I've seen that term.
Does that mean we are creating a consumption bubble because of perpetually low rates?
I don't know if it's accurate to describe our interest rate environment as "perpetually low." Europe's rates are much lower than ours. Japan, too.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 6:38 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
that's kind-of tautological, as both of those are lagging indicators
They can be, but I don't think they are right now. Confidence is what's driving Spending which is what's driving Unemployment.
quote:
business sentiment is more of a leading indicator, and has a lot more to do with business investment and hiring
Not right now. Spending and Confidence are high and there are more jobs than there are workers. As long as there's a labor shortage I believe business sentiment and investment are the lags due to the uncertainty of handling this sort of market (at least until the market adjusts to this paradigm or until the paradigm ends and goes back to normal).
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