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Is the housing market next
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:20 am
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:20 am
Cant imagine that there is no effect downstream from the stockmarket bloodbath
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:48 am to LChama
Try to maintain perspective dude. Today is a blip.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:48 am to LChama
Algos can't manipulate the housing market
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:52 am to LChama
If rates increase eventually housing prices fall. Might be by a lot but might not be by much. If you can afford a 1500 monthly payment and rates go up then the payment is more weighted towards paying interest which means it’s less house youre going to buy.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 10:53 am
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:52 am to LChama
quote:
Cant imagine that there is no effect downstream from the stockmarket bloodbath
Nah, but as someone looking to buy a condo we can hope!!!
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:11 am to LChama
Keep an eye on the Bond Market if the 10 year hits 1.996% then the correlation to the 30 year fixed is a 4% rate. Anytime rates go above 4% the housing market slows down. Right now we are at 1.559%
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:35 am to LChama
quote:
stockmarket bloodbath
What bloodbath?!
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:01 pm to LChama
I'm surprised the low interest rates have kept the housing market chugging along so well for this long. Have to imagine there's a wave of foreclosures coming eventually from people who've become unemployed or have a lower income now due to covid and from mom and pops landlords who can't afford the mortgage on their rental property because they have tenants who haven't paid rent in months and aren't allowed to even evict them.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:02 pm to LChama
I hope. frick buying a house in today’s market
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:58 pm to LChama
This won't happen until foreclosure and rent moratoriums are lifted
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:16 pm to LChama
Prior to CV shut downs I was thinking about finding somewhere to settle, and buy a home. Saving up with the intent to take advantage of the bubble busting in mid 20 thru mid late 21. Broad timeframe cause of election, but start being more watchful then with a set goal for savings.
Then CV hit and market just went up. Especially with people able to go wfh from places like CA moving around and inflating prices. And northerns going south.
I do think the bubble bust just got pushed out, but not really sure to when yet. Needing people shifting to stop, eventually people moving back too, etc.
With that said, this CV thing kind of shifted my thoughts on buying a house too. So in no major rush still.
Good question would be to know what stocks would +/- when it does happen.
Then CV hit and market just went up. Especially with people able to go wfh from places like CA moving around and inflating prices. And northerns going south.
I do think the bubble bust just got pushed out, but not really sure to when yet. Needing people shifting to stop, eventually people moving back too, etc.
With that said, this CV thing kind of shifted my thoughts on buying a house too. So in no major rush still.
Good question would be to know what stocks would +/- when it does happen.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:24 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:
I'm surprised the low interest rates have kept the housing market chugging along so well for this long. Have to imagine there's a wave of foreclosures coming eventually from people who've become unemployed or have a lower income now due to covid and from mom and pops landlords who can't afford the mortgage on their rental property because they have tenants who haven't paid rent in months and aren't allowed to even evict them.
The low rates have actually saved millions of people from foreclosure because they were either able to refinance to a lower rate or they modified their loan to a lower rate. If we didn't have lower rates during COVID it would be a much worse blood bath in the MBS market that what we will experience in 18-24 months.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:27 pm to HagaDaga
Rocket, UMWC, loanDepot, and the non-bank lenders will be who you want to follow closely to see where the market is headed. Those first three are the leaders of the pack so any decrease in volume from them will be the trigger sign the mortgage markets are pulling back.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:35 pm to LChama
There are big regional differences in housing markets this time. A huge number of people are moving South from the NE and East from the Left Coast.
So a U-Haul from NY to Atlanta was $3000, but from Atlanta to NY was $900.
So a U-Haul from NY to Atlanta was $3000, but from Atlanta to NY was $900.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:41 pm to HagaDaga
Guys, think big picture. Whatever keeps screaming across financial news media, you need to think OPPOSITE.
Rates have a destination in mind and they are going NEGATIVE ultimately, which is why they (Central bankers / planners) want a cashless system. Without a cashless system, people would just store their cash away from banks so that they won't be charged interest to keep their money there.
They are going to crash the stock market in order to save the bond market. You have roughly 3 weeks to get prepared. Monday 3/22 it starts.
Rates have a destination in mind and they are going NEGATIVE ultimately, which is why they (Central bankers / planners) want a cashless system. Without a cashless system, people would just store their cash away from banks so that they won't be charged interest to keep their money there.
They are going to crash the stock market in order to save the bond market. You have roughly 3 weeks to get prepared. Monday 3/22 it starts.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 2:49 pm
Posted on 3/5/21 at 4:38 pm to LChama
might be a good time to go in on OPEN...I have taken a starting position there.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 9:48 pm to tigersfan1989
quote:
If rates increase eventually housing prices fall. Might be by a lot but might not be by much. If you can afford a 1500 monthly payment and rates go up then the payment is more weighted towards paying interest which means it’s less house youre going to buy.
This! Its even worse than this though.
If rates go up then the monthly mortgage payment goes up and buyers for homes that people bought using low interest rates will not be affordable at the higher rates. The affect of this will be that sellers will be upside down because buyers will not be able to afford the mortgage for the sellers to pay off their existing mortgage.
Example:
House purchase in 2018 for 250k at 3.5% mortgage rate. Payment roughly $1,425 with taxes and insurance.
Owners need to sell and list for $270,000 to break even with closing costs. Mortgage rates goes back to 5% makes monthly payment $1,740 roughly.
Seller says they cannot or will not pay out of pocket on the loss so the banks has to short sell or foreclose. Property values decrease as sales decrease and the devalue of property's compounds on itself with even more defaults.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:03 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
This won't happen until foreclosure and rent moratoriums are lifted
And this is going to happen eventually. They don’t just put those payments on the back of the load and people just go along with 6 months added to their 360 or 180 payments. They modify the loan amd most often sell them to a completely different lender who’s business model seems built around screwing you. I’ve been on the wrong end of this before.
I think there are still waves we don’t see yet that are still offshore. Eventually, the mortgage is due. Literally.
Posted on 3/6/21 at 7:05 am to LChama
quote:
stockmarket bloodbath
When did this happen? Tech is down, but the Dow is steady. There are a lot of people on this board all of a sudden who don’t know what a sell-off really is.
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