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Is the housing market next

Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:20 am
Posted by LChama
Member since May 2020
1644 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:20 am
Cant imagine that there is no effect downstream from the stockmarket bloodbath
Posted by Douglas Quaid
Mars
Member since Mar 2010
4097 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:48 am to


Try to maintain perspective dude. Today is a blip.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13103 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:48 am to
Algos can't manipulate the housing market
Posted by tigersfan1989
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2018
1265 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:52 am to
If rates increase eventually housing prices fall. Might be by a lot but might not be by much. If you can afford a 1500 monthly payment and rates go up then the payment is more weighted towards paying interest which means it’s less house youre going to buy.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 10:53 am
Posted by Sput
Member since Mar 2020
7879 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:52 am to
quote:

Cant imagine that there is no effect downstream from the stockmarket bloodbath


Nah, but as someone looking to buy a condo we can hope!!!
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25909 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:11 am to
Keep an eye on the Bond Market if the 10 year hits 1.996% then the correlation to the 30 year fixed is a 4% rate. Anytime rates go above 4% the housing market slows down. Right now we are at 1.559%
Posted by LSUTOM07
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2011
765 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:35 am to
quote:

stockmarket bloodbath


What bloodbath?!
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:37 am to
The Dow and SP are up today
Posted by Tiger Prawn
Member since Dec 2016
21853 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:01 pm to
I'm surprised the low interest rates have kept the housing market chugging along so well for this long. Have to imagine there's a wave of foreclosures coming eventually from people who've become unemployed or have a lower income now due to covid and from mom and pops landlords who can't afford the mortgage on their rental property because they have tenants who haven't paid rent in months and aren't allowed to even evict them.
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18315 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:02 pm to
I hope. frick buying a house in today’s market
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
48888 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 12:58 pm to
This won't happen until foreclosure and rent moratoriums are lifted
Posted by HagaDaga
Member since Oct 2020
155 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:16 pm to
Prior to CV shut downs I was thinking about finding somewhere to settle, and buy a home. Saving up with the intent to take advantage of the bubble busting in mid 20 thru mid late 21. Broad timeframe cause of election, but start being more watchful then with a set goal for savings.

Then CV hit and market just went up. Especially with people able to go wfh from places like CA moving around and inflating prices. And northerns going south.

I do think the bubble bust just got pushed out, but not really sure to when yet. Needing people shifting to stop, eventually people moving back too, etc.

With that said, this CV thing kind of shifted my thoughts on buying a house too. So in no major rush still.

Good question would be to know what stocks would +/- when it does happen.
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25909 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

I'm surprised the low interest rates have kept the housing market chugging along so well for this long. Have to imagine there's a wave of foreclosures coming eventually from people who've become unemployed or have a lower income now due to covid and from mom and pops landlords who can't afford the mortgage on their rental property because they have tenants who haven't paid rent in months and aren't allowed to even evict them.


The low rates have actually saved millions of people from foreclosure because they were either able to refinance to a lower rate or they modified their loan to a lower rate. If we didn't have lower rates during COVID it would be a much worse blood bath in the MBS market that what we will experience in 18-24 months.
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
25909 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:27 pm to
Rocket, UMWC, loanDepot, and the non-bank lenders will be who you want to follow closely to see where the market is headed. Those first three are the leaders of the pack so any decrease in volume from them will be the trigger sign the mortgage markets are pulling back.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19348 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:35 pm to
There are big regional differences in housing markets this time. A huge number of people are moving South from the NE and East from the Left Coast.

So a U-Haul from NY to Atlanta was $3000, but from Atlanta to NY was $900.
Posted by Hussss
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
6741 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 2:41 pm to
Guys, think big picture. Whatever keeps screaming across financial news media, you need to think OPPOSITE.

Rates have a destination in mind and they are going NEGATIVE ultimately, which is why they (Central bankers / planners) want a cashless system. Without a cashless system, people would just store their cash away from banks so that they won't be charged interest to keep their money there.

They are going to crash the stock market in order to save the bond market. You have roughly 3 weeks to get prepared. Monday 3/22 it starts.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 2:49 pm
Posted by Shamoan
Member since Feb 2019
9157 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 4:38 pm to
might be a good time to go in on OPEN...I have taken a starting position there.
Posted by fwtex
Member since Nov 2019
1924 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

If rates increase eventually housing prices fall. Might be by a lot but might not be by much. If you can afford a 1500 monthly payment and rates go up then the payment is more weighted towards paying interest which means it’s less house youre going to buy.



This! Its even worse than this though.

If rates go up then the monthly mortgage payment goes up and buyers for homes that people bought using low interest rates will not be affordable at the higher rates. The affect of this will be that sellers will be upside down because buyers will not be able to afford the mortgage for the sellers to pay off their existing mortgage.

Example:
House purchase in 2018 for 250k at 3.5% mortgage rate. Payment roughly $1,425 with taxes and insurance.
Owners need to sell and list for $270,000 to break even with closing costs. Mortgage rates goes back to 5% makes monthly payment $1,740 roughly.
Seller says they cannot or will not pay out of pocket on the loss so the banks has to short sell or foreclose. Property values decrease as sales decrease and the devalue of property's compounds on itself with even more defaults.
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
30234 posts
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

This won't happen until foreclosure and rent moratoriums are lifted


And this is going to happen eventually. They don’t just put those payments on the back of the load and people just go along with 6 months added to their 360 or 180 payments. They modify the loan amd most often sell them to a completely different lender who’s business model seems built around screwing you. I’ve been on the wrong end of this before.

I think there are still waves we don’t see yet that are still offshore. Eventually, the mortgage is due. Literally.
Posted by Suntiger
BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
32855 posts
Posted on 3/6/21 at 7:05 am to
quote:

stockmarket bloodbath


When did this happen? Tech is down, but the Dow is steady. There are a lot of people on this board all of a sudden who don’t know what a sell-off really is.
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