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Historically, when a market drops, do essentially all stocks drop with it?

Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:05 am
Posted by AndyJ
Member since Jul 2008
2753 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:05 am
I’m sorry if this is a stupid question. But do most stock prices drop when there is an overall crash? I know they don’t all drop to the same degree, but do they still have big winners, even when everyone else is falling?
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30540 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:06 am to
We have a data point on this less than a year old

When we crashed in Feb/March, nearly every stock dropped with it

Now if you mean a general dip, no many stocks will not move with the market
Posted by AndyJ
Member since Jul 2008
2753 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:11 am to
Lol sorry. But thank you
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11066 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:35 am to
The cross-asset correlation has never been stronger. When stocks fall so do bonds, gold, BTC etc...
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
70801 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 8:28 pm to
You can go to Marketwatch and look up historic quotes for any individual stock, as long as the date you enter was a trading day.

Pre-Covid peak was on or around 2/19 and the bottom was somewhere around 3/23.

Other dates to take into consideration are 1/18/13 and 11/7/16. That tells you how the stock did in O's second term (without Trump being priced in), which should be similar to the next four years.
Posted by 3PieceSpicy
Metairie
Member since Jan 2021
6221 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 8:40 pm to
Historically as of 2021, everything moves in perfect harmony with the broad market except BB, BNGO, GME and ZOM.

But in all seriousness, Yes. 95% of the stocks move in the general direction of the market. There are outliers every day though. Just have to find them.
Posted by Palm Beach Tiger
Orlando, Florida
Member since Jan 2007
29853 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 10:44 pm to
I was looking at some stock today that didnt drop at all when the market crashed. I have a very small amount. Arkg
Posted by Jimmy2shoes
The South
Member since Mar 2014
11004 posts
Posted on 1/15/21 at 11:12 pm to
Biden will kill this market. just a matter of time.
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
30234 posts
Posted on 1/16/21 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

Biden will kill this market. just a matter of time.


This keeps me up at night. I’m new to the stock game and starting investing after the Covid crash. Because of that, most of my stocks have gained and I realize it’s a unique time and not usually this easy to make money. But if the market crashes by 30%, I’ll puke.

Although I don’t have what most people would consider a large amount, it’s a lot to me. I’m well diversified though and I guess that as protected as I can be.

Green energy
Oil and Gas
Tech
Medical
Crypto

Near 20% in each.
This post was edited on 1/16/21 at 12:11 pm
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
38625 posts
Posted on 1/16/21 at 12:29 pm to
quote:

This keeps me up at night. I’m new to the stock game and starting investing after the Covid crash. Because of that, most of my stocks have gained and I realize it’s a unique time and not usually this easy to make money. But if the market crashes by 30%, I’ll puke.

prepare to puke
but it won’t have anything to do with biden

the market is flying unmoored from reality right now with millions of new and not so new traders recklessly buying options and betting heavily on speculation

we need a dose of humility
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4079 posts
Posted on 1/16/21 at 12:57 pm to
Well, looks like we agree again.

I don't say this out of a desire for Schadenfreude, but at some point, all major (especially near parabolic) market moves revert to the mean. Sometimes they ease back, sometimes it's more violent. And few ever expect it or accurately predict the timimg. I mean, black swans seldom sing a warning call on their way to poop on your newly washed car, right?

It doesn't bother long(er) term investors, but for inexperienced traders, who've never experienced it before and might have weak-handed trading positions, it can be heart wrenching. Good luck to them.
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
41156 posts
Posted on 1/16/21 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

I was looking at some stock today that didnt drop at all when the market crashed.


Clorox
Posted by blackoutdore
Nashville
Member since Jun 2013
247 posts
Posted on 1/16/21 at 2:20 pm to
There is a measure called “Beta” that basically indicates how much a stock moves in relation to the market as a whole. A 1.0 Beta indicates that the stock is perfectly correlated with the market (a 5% drop in the market would lead to a 5% drop in the stock). Think of beta as a multiplier. I think there are even some negative beta stocks that tend to move opposite of the general market (think like repo firms which have more business when the economy sucks).

Beta is calculated based on historical returns, so it isn’t perfect by any means and highly dependent on the historic time frame you use. Also, things tend to all go down together when shite hits the fan.



Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4079 posts
Posted on 1/16/21 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

There is a measure called “Beta” that basically indicates how much a stock moves in relation to the market as a whole.



Great post.

For those who use portfolio margin in their trading activities, beta, especially as it relates to position and sector cross-correlation, is an EXTREMELY important concept to understand.

I don't use margin per se (as in, I don't technically borrow money to make trades), but because I have portfolio margin, beta calculations greatly affect the "available funds for trading" in my account. Being overly concentrated can create nasty surprises if/when something unexpected happens.
This post was edited on 1/16/21 at 3:09 pm
Posted by Shamoan
Member since Feb 2019
9157 posts
Posted on 1/16/21 at 3:16 pm to
Well, it’s not like you can avoid the 30% loss. If you sell to avoid the 30% loss, you have to pay roughly 30% in cap gains, so the only real solution is to play the long game, and buy heavy when the market is down.
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