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Historically, when a market drops, do essentially all stocks drop with it?
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:05 am
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:05 am
I’m sorry if this is a stupid question. But do most stock prices drop when there is an overall crash? I know they don’t all drop to the same degree, but do they still have big winners, even when everyone else is falling?
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:06 am to AndyJ
We have a data point on this less than a year old
When we crashed in Feb/March, nearly every stock dropped with it
Now if you mean a general dip, no many stocks will not move with the market
When we crashed in Feb/March, nearly every stock dropped with it
Now if you mean a general dip, no many stocks will not move with the market
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:11 am to Upperdecker
Lol sorry. But thank you
Posted on 1/15/21 at 9:35 am to AndyJ
The cross-asset correlation has never been stronger. When stocks fall so do bonds, gold, BTC etc...
Posted on 1/15/21 at 8:28 pm to AndyJ
You can go to Marketwatch and look up historic quotes for any individual stock, as long as the date you enter was a trading day.
Pre-Covid peak was on or around 2/19 and the bottom was somewhere around 3/23.
Other dates to take into consideration are 1/18/13 and 11/7/16. That tells you how the stock did in O's second term (without Trump being priced in), which should be similar to the next four years.
Pre-Covid peak was on or around 2/19 and the bottom was somewhere around 3/23.
Other dates to take into consideration are 1/18/13 and 11/7/16. That tells you how the stock did in O's second term (without Trump being priced in), which should be similar to the next four years.
Posted on 1/15/21 at 8:40 pm to AndyJ
Historically as of 2021, everything moves in perfect harmony with the broad market except BB, BNGO, GME and ZOM.
But in all seriousness, Yes. 95% of the stocks move in the general direction of the market. There are outliers every day though. Just have to find them.
But in all seriousness, Yes. 95% of the stocks move in the general direction of the market. There are outliers every day though. Just have to find them.
Posted on 1/15/21 at 10:44 pm to Upperdecker
I was looking at some stock today that didnt drop at all when the market crashed. I have a very small amount. Arkg
Posted on 1/15/21 at 11:12 pm to AndyJ
Biden will kill this market. just a matter of time.
Posted on 1/16/21 at 12:09 pm to Jimmy2shoes
quote:
Biden will kill this market. just a matter of time.
This keeps me up at night. I’m new to the stock game and starting investing after the Covid crash. Because of that, most of my stocks have gained and I realize it’s a unique time and not usually this easy to make money. But if the market crashes by 30%, I’ll puke.
Although I don’t have what most people would consider a large amount, it’s a lot to me. I’m well diversified though and I guess that as protected as I can be.
Green energy
Oil and Gas
Tech
Medical
Crypto
Near 20% in each.
This post was edited on 1/16/21 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 1/16/21 at 12:29 pm to supadave3
quote:
This keeps me up at night. I’m new to the stock game and starting investing after the Covid crash. Because of that, most of my stocks have gained and I realize it’s a unique time and not usually this easy to make money. But if the market crashes by 30%, I’ll puke.
prepare to puke
but it won’t have anything to do with biden
the market is flying unmoored from reality right now with millions of new and not so new traders recklessly buying options and betting heavily on speculation
we need a dose of humility
Posted on 1/16/21 at 12:57 pm to cgrand
Well, looks like we agree again.
I don't say this out of a desire for Schadenfreude, but at some point, all major (especially near parabolic) market moves revert to the mean. Sometimes they ease back, sometimes it's more violent. And few ever expect it or accurately predict the timimg. I mean, black swans seldom sing a warning call on their way to poop on your newly washed car, right?
It doesn't bother long(er) term investors, but for inexperienced traders, who've never experienced it before and might have weak-handed trading positions, it can be heart wrenching. Good luck to them.
I don't say this out of a desire for Schadenfreude, but at some point, all major (especially near parabolic) market moves revert to the mean. Sometimes they ease back, sometimes it's more violent. And few ever expect it or accurately predict the timimg. I mean, black swans seldom sing a warning call on their way to poop on your newly washed car, right?
It doesn't bother long(er) term investors, but for inexperienced traders, who've never experienced it before and might have weak-handed trading positions, it can be heart wrenching. Good luck to them.
Posted on 1/16/21 at 1:54 pm to Palm Beach Tiger
quote:
I was looking at some stock today that didnt drop at all when the market crashed.
Clorox
Posted on 1/16/21 at 2:20 pm to AndyJ
There is a measure called “Beta” that basically indicates how much a stock moves in relation to the market as a whole. A 1.0 Beta indicates that the stock is perfectly correlated with the market (a 5% drop in the market would lead to a 5% drop in the stock). Think of beta as a multiplier. I think there are even some negative beta stocks that tend to move opposite of the general market (think like repo firms which have more business when the economy sucks).
Beta is calculated based on historical returns, so it isn’t perfect by any means and highly dependent on the historic time frame you use. Also, things tend to all go down together when shite hits the fan.
Beta is calculated based on historical returns, so it isn’t perfect by any means and highly dependent on the historic time frame you use. Also, things tend to all go down together when shite hits the fan.
Posted on 1/16/21 at 3:08 pm to blackoutdore
quote:
There is a measure called “Beta” that basically indicates how much a stock moves in relation to the market as a whole.
Great post.
For those who use portfolio margin in their trading activities, beta, especially as it relates to position and sector cross-correlation, is an EXTREMELY important concept to understand.
I don't use margin per se (as in, I don't technically borrow money to make trades), but because I have portfolio margin, beta calculations greatly affect the "available funds for trading" in my account. Being overly concentrated can create nasty surprises if/when something unexpected happens.
This post was edited on 1/16/21 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 1/16/21 at 3:16 pm to supadave3
Well, it’s not like you can avoid the 30% loss. If you sell to avoid the 30% loss, you have to pay roughly 30% in cap gains, so the only real solution is to play the long game, and buy heavy when the market is down.
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