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Has the Fed seen enough bloodletting in the markets?
Posted on 5/11/22 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 5/11/22 at 2:37 pm
Chamat P on the 'All In' podcast a few episodes ago seemed to think that the Fed would keep increasing the pressure until the equity markets have endured meaningful bleeding/pain. I think we are probably at that point now.
Chamat also thought that if the Fed kept the foot on the neck too long, they will force us into a recession, which might still happen anyway.
Do you guys think the Fed seen enough, or are there more 0.5 and 0.75% increases on the horizon?
Chamat also thought that if the Fed kept the foot on the neck too long, they will force us into a recession, which might still happen anyway.
Do you guys think the Fed seen enough, or are there more 0.5 and 0.75% increases on the horizon?
8
Posted on 5/11/22 at 2:39 pm to Street Hawk
quote:No, Fed DGAF about the markets as long as inflation is running rampant.
Has the Fed seen enough bloodletting in the markets?
Posted on 5/11/22 at 2:48 pm to Street Hawk
Sorry, but the fed rate increases are in the early stages. Five more increases are expected this year. I know that it seems ugly out there, but Biden is subsidizing wireless internet for low-income users. Good to know that he's got his finger on the pulse.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 2:51 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
No, Fed DGAF about the markets as long as inflation is running rampant.
This is the answer. So what's gonna happen is they're gonna slam the economy and blast the market to get price spirals under control.
Looking at the "mandates that Congress gave"...price control and maximum employment (which they never fully defined), you could say the fed is doing about as poorly as is possible.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 2:53 pm to Bdiddy
quote:
Good to know that he's got his finger on the pulse.
It's funny how the so called brightest economic minds fail to understand that nonstop printing of money and handing it out in return for no good or service produced/provided is gas on the fire of inflation. More dollars chasing fewer goods and services.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 3:14 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
It's funny how the so called brightest economic minds fail to understand that nonstop printing of money and handing it out in return for no good or service produced/provided is gas on the fire of inflation.
Who cares about inflation when we have a proxy war to fund?
Posted on 5/11/22 at 3:14 pm to Street Hawk
No the Fed wants to drive the markets down. They want to get rid of as much wealth as possible.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 3:26 pm to Street Hawk
Mid-term elections will be a bloodletting for the dems, that’s for sure.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 3:32 pm to Street Hawk
quote:There has to be increases. The Fed must try to check inflation.
Do you guys think the Fed seen enough, or are there more 0.5 and 0.75% increases on the horizon?
Posted on 5/11/22 at 3:33 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
Mid-term elections will be a bloodletting for the dems, that’s for sure.
Believe it when I see it.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 3:48 pm to Street Hawk
The Fed Mandate is to address inflation and unemployment, not to bail out the stock market.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 3:54 pm to flvelo12
It's easy to shite on Biden for good reason but the situation we are in is not just because of him, not by a longshot. The Fed bought and bought and lowered rates responding to covid and Trump signed the largest relief bill in history in March 2020. Plus it's hard to count all the other covid relief measures during both the Trump and Biden administrations.
How far in the red will we eventually be in the returns on those "investments"? The average person got something around three and a half grand in covid stimulus money counting tax credits and inflation will surely eat that up if it hasn't already.
How far in the red will we eventually be in the returns on those "investments"? The average person got something around three and a half grand in covid stimulus money counting tax credits and inflation will surely eat that up if it hasn't already.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 4:30 pm to Diseasefreeforall
This is a great response. Spot on. They are going to raise rates until something breaks... sorry, but 18% isn't broken.
And I'm not looking for downvotes, but this is the part that sucks for those in the very vocal "hold forever no matter what, markets only go up, who needs an advisor?" crowd. Until you've been through this with a bunch of money on the line, you don't really know how it feels to lose 100k, 200k+, etc. If you're in that crowd and you didn't lose a ton of money in 2008 you don't get to complain about losses now. When you start complaining, you've officially found your risk tolerance.
Side note: if you do have an advisor, and they can't articulate what they're doing to justify their fee... now you can cleanly fire them.
And I'm not looking for downvotes, but this is the part that sucks for those in the very vocal "hold forever no matter what, markets only go up, who needs an advisor?" crowd. Until you've been through this with a bunch of money on the line, you don't really know how it feels to lose 100k, 200k+, etc. If you're in that crowd and you didn't lose a ton of money in 2008 you don't get to complain about losses now. When you start complaining, you've officially found your risk tolerance.
Side note: if you do have an advisor, and they can't articulate what they're doing to justify their fee... now you can cleanly fire them.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 4:31 pm to Street Hawk
quote:
Do you guys think the Fed seen enough, or are there more 0.5 and 0.75% increases on the horizon?
They have already stated they are going to go at .50 for the next 2 meetings.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 5:06 pm to tigerfoot
With the US dollar the strongest it’s been in 2 decades I just wonder at what level that will force the fed to reverse there current trend and stance
Posted on 5/11/22 at 5:51 pm to UpstairsComputer
It’s all unrealized gains and losses until you sell. I’ve lost six figures on paper so far but it’s not dollars that I have any expectation of needing to access for at least a decade or more.
Maybe that is a reflection of my “risk tolerance” but really it’s more about a fundamental belief in trusting the process of systematically investing every period and not reacting to marketplace swings in value. If we are 10+ years into the future and aren’t well past the highs of 2021 then the entire concept of investing will need to be rethought.
Maybe that is a reflection of my “risk tolerance” but really it’s more about a fundamental belief in trusting the process of systematically investing every period and not reacting to marketplace swings in value. If we are 10+ years into the future and aren’t well past the highs of 2021 then the entire concept of investing will need to be rethought.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 6:51 pm to lynxcat
There are really three parts to tolerance. You are willing to take the risk, and you have the composure to hold through the downturns. The other part, ability, really has more to do with timeframe which is the easy one to explain.
I always thought you were some type of advisor though, or at least you have plenty experience, so no doubt you’re on top of this.
Composure is the one we are seeing pop up on MT 10x a day.
I always thought you were some type of advisor though, or at least you have plenty experience, so no doubt you’re on top of this.
Composure is the one we are seeing pop up on MT 10x a day.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 7:45 pm to Street Hawk
8% inflation report today, next CPI reading in a month. At least two more rate hikes incoming.. buckle up.
Posted on 5/11/22 at 7:49 pm to biscuitsngravy
quote:
8% inflation report today, next CPI reading in a month. At least two more rate hikes incoming.. buckle up.
Are rate review monthly?
Posted on 5/11/22 at 9:18 pm to thelawnwranglers
Yes. PPI is tomorrow at 730. Every month. You can look at econoday for the weekly calendar. There’s another one that slips my mind at the moment that’ll give a monthly calendar if you don’t want to watch so frequently.
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