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Fed expected to drop rates on Wednesday. Will it affect mortgage rates?

Posted on 9/9/19 at 1:00 pm
Posted by HubbaBubba
F_uck Joe Biden, TX
Member since Oct 2010
45704 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 1:00 pm
Saw that there was about a quarter point rise in rates this morning. Will the Fed rate decrease have any expected corresponding decrease in rates? I know they aren't necessarily related, but there's a huge uptick in refi right now and is that impacting the rate more than the Fed?
Posted by UpstairsComputer
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2017
1567 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 1:34 pm to
Yes and no. Purely on a technical basis, the 30 year rate dropped significantly after the rate cut in July. There was inevitably going to be a bounce.

US30YR Rate

The million dollar question is why does the bond market believe the Fed will be cutting the short term rate 4 more times in the next 8 months?

Rate Cut Probabilities

Hope this helps.
Posted by HubbaBubba
F_uck Joe Biden, TX
Member since Oct 2010
45704 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 2:15 pm to
Maybe. The mortgage lender, Lending.com, includes a rate guarantee of best current rate IF the basis points drop by 125 points or greater. Looks like I should lock in (3.5) and see where it falls to at closing.
Posted by UpstairsComputer
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2017
1567 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 2:35 pm to
That actually sounds pretty good. What's the timeframe on that offer? Is it just during the closing period (like 30-45 days) or for something like a 12 month period?

Also, just to prove I could beat the hell out of that chart, check this out... US30Y
Posted by HubbaBubba
F_uck Joe Biden, TX
Member since Oct 2010
45704 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 5:33 pm to
Not sure of the lock date. 30 is pretty standard, but 45 might be good, too. I've been working, so the documents are sitting in my inbox to digitally sign in a little bit.
Posted by ThatsWhatSheSaid69
Member since Aug 2012
91 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 5:50 pm to
I just locked a 30 year at 3.625% for 45 days. Our house should be finish in about 3-4 weeks. The 15 year rate was 3.125%
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
118907 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 7:06 pm to
quote:

The 15 year rate was 3.125%


I'm hoping for this come May next year. Or less.
Posted by LSUSUPERSTAR
TX
Member since Jan 2005
16305 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 7:20 pm to
I got 4% on my loan that closed in July. Is there a rate that I should try to refinance? Will anyone refinance that new of a loan?
Posted by 3morereps
The Gym
Member since Jun 2015
6735 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 10:19 pm to
Any will refinance that loan. They’ll charge you a couple grand though. You need to calculate what your payback is or how long until your savings exceed your new closing costs. If you’ll be in the home longer than that, go ahead and refi
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35236 posts
Posted on 9/9/19 at 11:35 pm to
quote:

the 30 year rate dropped significantly after the rate cut in July.
I’m pretty sure that fixed rate mortgages (and a whole bunch of other loans and lines of credit) follow the 10-year treasury, although both have a high correlation with the 30-year rate anyways.
This post was edited on 9/9/19 at 11:38 pm
Posted by lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
11473 posts
Posted on 9/10/19 at 11:11 am to
quote:

I got 4% on my loan that closed in July. Is there a rate that I should try to refinance? Will anyone refinance that new of a loan?


I have always heard the Rule of Thumb is 1% drop in rate and gonna be in house another five years. No clue if that is true.
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