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Started By
Message
Dow testing 29K floor
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:05 am
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:05 am
Here we go
This post was edited on 9/26/22 at 1:44 pm
14
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:15 am to Strannix
Been through this before but it's still crazy to me that everybody sells everything at the same time.
I have a small position in ABEO, a tiny pharma with a market cap of $21 million and a data readout upcoming for a disease with no current treatments and a market in the hundreds of millions...and it's selling off, which makes no sense.
I'll gladly buy a little more but there is definitely some irrationality going on.
I have a small position in ABEO, a tiny pharma with a market cap of $21 million and a data readout upcoming for a disease with no current treatments and a market in the hundreds of millions...and it's selling off, which makes no sense.
I'll gladly buy a little more but there is definitely some irrationality going on.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:41 am to Diseasefreeforall
Its irrational its not at 20k
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:44 am to Strannix
An index that tracks only 30 various companies and weighted based on the price per share of the stock?
The Dow’s construction is irrational.
The Dow’s construction is irrational.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:44 am to Strannix
Slap the historical average PE on the S&P and we'd be at 3045 right now which would mean about another 20% to the downside. That doesn't account for earnings estimate reductions either.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:46 am to Strannix
Probably needs to test pre Covid highs eventually. 28,500ish.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 9:59 am to Strannix
It’s going to get there eventually.
Bottom will be around 26,000.
Bottom will be around 26,000.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:01 am to Strannix
It’s going to do a lot more than test it before all is said and done.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:02 am to Strannix
I've had a bet with my FIL since May that the Dow would be at 24 by the end of the year. The next 30-60 days will tell whether I was too bearish or not.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:16 am to Strannix
quote:
Its irrational its not at 20k
"bUt TiMe In tHE MaRkEt"
aLwAYS gOeS uP oVeR tImE"
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:27 am to I Love Bama
It has always gone up over time. Just depends how much time we’re talking about. Almost everyone around today assumes there is a recovery around the corner. Historically that hasn’t always been the case.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:39 am to SloaneRanger
Take away QE after 2008 and adjust for inflation and you will be very surprised how little it has done.
The stock market and the real estate market have been manipulated so much there is no real market left.
We have the federal reserve controlling ALL OF IT.
The stock market and the real estate market have been manipulated so much there is no real market left.
We have the federal reserve controlling ALL OF IT.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:40 am to I Love Bama
quote:
"bUt TiMe In tHE MaRkEt" aLwAYS gOeS uP oVeR tImE"
I mean… it’s a fact.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:45 am to LSUcam7
quote:
I mean… it’s a fact.
Only after WW2 when there was no major military force other than the US and the population of the world was exploding. We're in an era where everything is moving to the opposite of that era (US military no longer able to control the seas and population is declining and the overall workforce is shrinking).
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:48 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
Slap the historical average PE on the S&P and we'd be at 3045 right now which would mean about another 20% to the downside. That doesn't account for earnings estimate reductions either.
Maybe, but most of the S&P is now tech heavy which is demanding a higher P/E. That higher P/E is coming from their revenue being heavy subscription based and more predictable, more sticky (especially for businesses IT).
Investors are willing to pay up for that vs more unpredictable revenue from something like an industrial space.
Posted on 9/22/22 at 10:52 am to tiggerthetooth
The Great Depression preceded WW2.
Prior to the Great Depression, corporate America was just budding, and common stocks were not the norm and far from widely owned.
Give me the 100 year data that clearly shows ownership of common stock is a fine place to park a portion of an individual’s wealth, next to private business, real estate and collectibles.
Prior to the Great Depression, corporate America was just budding, and common stocks were not the norm and far from widely owned.
Give me the 100 year data that clearly shows ownership of common stock is a fine place to park a portion of an individual’s wealth, next to private business, real estate and collectibles.
quote:
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
Posted on 9/22/22 at 11:07 am to LSUcam7
quote:
mean… it’s a fact.
Do it over M2....
Posted on 9/22/22 at 11:11 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
Slap the historical average PE on the S&P and we'd be at 3045 right now which would mean about another 20% to the downside. That doesn't account for earnings estimate reductions either.
Ding ding ding.
Nothing is justified from a valuation standpoint right now and that goes even more so for real estate which hasn’t already lost 20-25% like the stock market has.
This post was edited on 9/22/22 at 11:12 am
Posted on 9/22/22 at 11:17 am to Strannix
Consumer spending will be in the toilet by end of year. i'm paying about 150 more a week in groceries, gas looks to be climbing back up again and my electric bill has gone from from avg 300 per month over the summer to pushing 500 a month the last few months. Add in the fact my property taxes are going up another 1000 this year because my house is worth more Wink!Wink Yeah the middle class is going to have to honker down for 2023 and that means Earnings for many companies that depend on the consumer spending will be in the tank. Living the dream thanks Joe 
Posted on 9/22/22 at 11:26 am to FLObserver
I think the market is going to be shitty most of 2023 too. We'll probably have a few bear market rallies along the way though.
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