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castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
68028 posts
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Crude hovering around $33/bbl
Both Jun and Jul.

Kind of surprising to me.


C
Atlanta Falcons Fan
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
26205 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
I’ve heard more people are driving. Driving is one of the least energy efficient means of transport. Could really spike if people are making summer plans to drive to vacation spots rather than fly. Also if people are more likely to take cars vs mass transit.


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
68028 posts
 Online 

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
From what I'm seeing supply is the bigger impact. Looks like these companies were more aggressive than initiate thought with their cuts and shut-ins. Those seem to be ahead of schedule.


C
Atlanta Falcons Fan
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
26205 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
Yes actual cuts have been higher than what was announced. Those will come back though. I think we’ll continue to see major spikes and falls over the next 6 months as the market tries to find a balance. Need a healthy ullage in the system to keep balance. Problem will be as people need to sell inventories to cover losses.


mule74
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Nov 2004
9370 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
I've been saying for a month that we are going to get whipsawed. I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.


CajunTiger78
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Aug 2017
1128 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

I've been saying for a month that we are going to get whipsawed. I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.



I hope you are right. Our oilfield industry desperately needs this to happen.


ColoradoAg03
Texas A&M Fan
Denver, CO
Member since Oct 2012
4784 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

I've been saying for a month that we are going to get whipsawed. I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.


quote:

I hope you are right. Our oilfield industry desperately needs this to happen.


$100 oil is not good and will lead to another oversupply and crash. $60-75 is the sweet spot we need, and need it to stabilize there.


Boring
Member since Feb 2019
1573 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

Looks like these companies were more aggressive than initiate thought with their cuts and shut-ins.


OPEC++ has (supposedly) made cuts, while some American producers have (supposedly) shut-in between 70-100% of their wells. The industry has a whole appears to have adjusted quite quickly, although it meant a large reduction in jobs.

And fwiw, the Baker Hughes rig report came out with 258 last week. This time last year? 802


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notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
46979 posts
 Online 

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

I've been saying for a month that we are going to get whipsawed. I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.


Nah. It will be too easy for many producers to turn things back on this time when oil gets back to around $65.


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31
tirebiter
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2006
6752 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
Heard consumption had increased 25% during the prior 2 weeks. Pretty strong for the light traffic I'm seeing in ATL.


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notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
46979 posts
 Online 

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
Lots of traffic around here the last two weeks.
And it seems like half the people that I know are either at the beach or about to head that way


tirebiter
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2006
6752 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

Lots of traffic around here the last two weeks.


On I-285 the big rigs/through traffic has definitely increased in numbers.


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mule74
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Nov 2004
9370 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

$100 oil is not good and will lead to another oversupply and crash. $60-75 is the sweet spot we need, and need it to stabilize there.


For clarification, I wasn't saying it's good. This is the problem with having a cartel control the market. We're going to have undersupply, which will then restart the whole cycle of oversupply.


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02
DaleBrown
LSU Fan
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
1631 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

I've been saying for a month that we are going to get whipsawed. I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.



Mmmm
What factors are leading you to this conclusion?

It’d take a supply demand shift of more than 50% of where we are now and I cannot see that happening under any circumstance other than a war or some freak occurrence to shut down supply
This post was edited on 5/18 at 2:48 pm


kywildcatfanone
Kentucky Fan
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
70647 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.


Let's hope not, that's way overpriced for most consumers.


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31
Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
9746 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
We only have a couple hundred billion barrels to burn through. Shutting in production is helping


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20
cwill
Member since Jan 2005
44480 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

Both Jun and Jul.

Kind of surprising to me.


Wait till all them baws, desperately in need of some cash flow, crack those SI wells open in June.

Image: https://media0.giphy.com/media/fu4XA3vUl4Tfi/source.gif


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cwill
Member since Jan 2005
44480 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.


The rigs have to stay idle for that to happen...possible...but I know of some boys scheduling rig lines for July/august spuds.


TigerDog83
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2005
7171 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
quote:

The rigs have to stay idle for that to happen...possible...but I know of some boys scheduling rig lines for July/august spuds.


That’s just insanity. I think we all know No horizontal shale wells make money below $40-$45 anyhow. We will defintely see some crude try to return to market but I would figure the bakken crude will stay shut in as I saw clear brook last week was $6.50 where Nymex wti was 27$. Prob see similar with far off blends like powder and Delaware high grades with no long term firm pipeline deal.


Capt ST
Army Fan
Middle of the Mall
Member since Aug 2011
9431 posts

re: Crude hovering around $33/bbl
I may be wrong, but I don’t see those shale plays coming back on line without some type of workover of wells.


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