Crude hovering around $33/bbl

I’ve heard more people are driving. Driving is one of the least energy efficient means of transport. Could really spike if people are making summer plans to drive to vacation spots rather than fly. Also if people are more likely to take cars vs mass transit.

Yes actual cuts have been higher than what was announced. Those will come back though. I think we’ll continue to see major spikes and falls over the next 6 months as the market tries to find a balance. Need a healthy ullage in the system to keep balance. Problem will be as people need to sell inventories to cover losses.

quote:

---

I've been saying for a month that we are going to get whipsawed. I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.

---

I hope you are right. Our oilfield industry desperately needs this to happen.

quote:

---

Looks like these companies were more aggressive than initiate thought with their cuts and shut-ins.

---

OPEC++ has (supposedly) made cuts, while some American producers have (supposedly) shut-in between 70-100% of their wells. The industry has a whole appears to have adjusted quite quickly, although it meant a large reduction in jobs.

And fwiw, the Baker Hughes rig report came out with 258 last week. This time last year? 802

Heard consumption had increased 25% during the prior 2 weeks. Pretty strong for the light traffic I'm seeing in ATL.

Lots of traffic around here the last two weeks.
And it seems like half the people that I know are either at the beach or about to head that way

quote:

---

$100 oil is not good and will lead to another oversupply and crash. $60-75 is the sweet spot we need, and need it to stabilize there.

---

For clarification, I wasn't saying it's good. This is the problem with having a cartel control the market. We're going to have undersupply, which will then restart the whole cycle of oversupply.

quote:

---

I expect $100 oil again in the next 18 months.

---

Let's hope not, that's way overpriced for most consumers.

quote:

---

Both Jun and Jul.

Kind of surprising to me.

---

Wait till all them baws, desperately in need of some cash flow, crack those SI wells open in June.

quote:

---

The rigs have to stay idle for that to happen...possible...but I know of some boys scheduling rig lines for July/august spuds.

---

That’s just insanity. I think we all know No horizontal shale wells make money below $40-$45 anyhow. We will defintely see some crude try to return to market but I would figure the bakken crude will stay shut in as I saw clear brook last week was $6.50 where Nymex wti was 27$. Prob see similar with far off blends like powder and Delaware high grades with no long term firm pipeline deal.