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Message
CPI Report tomorrow
Posted on 2/13/18 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 2/13/18 at 5:26 pm
Which way will we go?
quote:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ calculation of the consumer-price index (CPI) for January comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday. The index is expected to rise 1.9%, with the core index – excluding food and energy – rising 1.7%. That would actually be down from 2.1% and 1.8%, respectively, in December.
Other ways of looking at the data may make it seem somewhat higher, however. If it hits the month-over-month target, the CPI would be up 2.3% annually on a rolling three-month basis, Arone notes. Even a 2.3% rise in CPI doesn’t sound like much in the scheme of things, considering that inflation has averaged about 3.5% since World War II and rose into the double-digits for sustained stretches in the 1970s. But inflation has become a hot-button topic among investors lately, and even a small rise in the number could unsettle stocks again.
There are reasons to believe that inflation could rise: The U.S. is near full employment, wages are rising, and the federal government is plowing more money into the private sector by cutting taxes and boosting spending in areas like defense.
2
Posted on 2/13/18 at 5:29 pm to stout
Small business sentiment was up last month
Posted on 2/13/18 at 10:36 pm to stout
The y-o-y numbers are necessary to give context, but I'll be looking especially hard at the m-o-m number from Dec 2017 to Jan 2018. With all that inflationary news that started to hit a couple of weeks ago, it'll be interesting to see if we get a 0.3% m-o-m number, or roughly 3.7% annualized (or really anywhere from about 3.0% to 4.3% given the range of error).
Posted on 2/14/18 at 7:33 am to Doc Fenton
quote:
it'll be interesting to see if we get a 0.3% m-o-m number
Came in at 0.5%
Posted on 2/14/18 at 7:53 am to Omada
Coming in hot.
Posted on 2/14/18 at 7:55 am to Janky
Futures already down 1%, we in for another long week?
Posted on 2/14/18 at 8:05 am to leoj
Feel like today could suck
Posted on 2/14/18 at 8:19 am to fillmoregandt
What’s the best hedge against inflation again?
Posted on 2/14/18 at 8:27 am to LSUcam7
Stocks.
Posted on 2/14/18 at 9:44 am to LSUcam7
quote:
What’s the best hedge against inflation again?
Something priced in dollars. Give dollars today, get back dollars down the road.
Posted on 2/14/18 at 8:48 pm to Omada
Yeah, I saw that from the BLS earlier today. I was thinking more about the core number, which came in at 0.3%, but the 0.5% headline number is definitely significant. Energy prices need to be stripped out to reduce the noise, but eventually, higher energy prices will start to pull the core numbers up with them.
Last 7 months of headline m-o-m inflation = 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.5%
Last 7 months of core m-o-m inflation = 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%
So whereas we had reached 0.5% back in September 2017 due to a spike in energy prices, we haven't seen a core figure of 0.3% in quite a while.
Still, those last 6 months of headline inflation are scary. It looks like a full 2% in just half a year, although looking at the historical CPI tables, you only see a 1.3% rise for some reason from July to January.
In any case, today we say more of the same--the USD index dropping, the 10yr UST yield rising, and global commodities rising.
Last 7 months of headline m-o-m inflation = 0.1%, 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.5%
Last 7 months of core m-o-m inflation = 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%
So whereas we had reached 0.5% back in September 2017 due to a spike in energy prices, we haven't seen a core figure of 0.3% in quite a while.
Still, those last 6 months of headline inflation are scary. It looks like a full 2% in just half a year, although looking at the historical CPI tables, you only see a 1.3% rise for some reason from July to January.
In any case, today we say more of the same--the USD index dropping, the 10yr UST yield rising, and global commodities rising.
Posted on 2/15/18 at 11:22 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
we haven't seen a core figure of 0.3% in quite a while
Just found out tonight ( LINK) that the last time was March 2005.
Of course that was coming off a year of 3.8% real GDP growth in 2004 (the highest for the U.S. in the 21st century), as opposed to a year of only 2.3% real GDP growth in 2017.
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