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Started By
Message
Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimate
Posted on 3/30/20 at 4:17 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 4:17 pm
quote:
The central part of Faria-e-Castro’s compilations comes from previous Fed research showing 66.8 million workers in “occupations with high risk of layoff.” They are sales, production, food preparation and services. Other research also identified 27.3 million people working in “high contact-intensive” jobs such as barbers and stylists, airline attendants, and food and beverage service.
The paper then took an average of those workers and estimated a loss of just over 47 million positions. That would bring the U.S. unemployment rolls to 52.8 million, or more than three times worse than the peak of the Great Recession. The 30% unemployment rate would top the Great Depression peak of 24.9%.
The one potential bright side is the likelihood that the downturn could be comparatively brief.
During a CNBC interview last week, Bullard said the jobless number “will be unparalleled, but don’t get discouraged. This is a special quarter, and once the virus goes away and if we play our cards right and keep everything intact, then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine.”
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Posted on 3/30/20 at 4:23 pm to lynxcat
“But it’s priced in”
Posted on 3/30/20 at 4:23 pm to lynxcat
quote:
then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine
Sounds good in theory!
Our business is booming right now and we are still at 100% capacity, but I worry that alot of people will start running out of discretionary money before the Trump checks are sent out.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 4:48 pm to lynxcat
holy heyperbole
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:04 pm to lynxcat
quote:
This is a special quarter, and once the virus goes away and if we play our cards right and keep everything intact, then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine
People keeping saying shite like this, "oh Americans will be champing at the bit to get back to work and go out and spend money on travelling, eating out, and shopping!"
1) There won't be any jobs left to come back to because the businesses went bankrupt
2) With no jobs and their meager savings having been completely exhausted, does anyone really think Americans are gonna have the cash to blow on cruises and trips to fricking Disney World?
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 5:05 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:18 pm to Boring
Disney is beyond stupid $ compared to a decade ++ back. Just stupid like paying $20 average for a 2 minute long ride when you add in entry costs, food, hotel, airfare.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 5:19 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:41 pm to PUB
quote:
Disney is beyond stupid $ compared to a decade ++ back
No shite huh? And yet somehow Kyle the Pipeline Welder, his stay at home wife Staci who sells Herbalife, and their three kids Jaxton, Kayleigh, and Brayden can all afford to go a couple times a year. #blessed #magical #princess
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:53 pm to Boring
quote:Did you forget that over half of the laid off employees will have a higher income after taxes by not working than they made when they were working?
With no jobs and their meager savings
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:55 pm to LSURussian
Yea, we are already having people "call in" knowing the government stimulus is headed their way.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:58 pm to Boring
Probably because Kyle the Pipeline Welder makes well over $100,000 a year and his wife probably adds an extra 35-40k. How would they not be able to afford a Disney trip?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:42 pm to Boring
quote:
There won't be any jobs left to come back to because the businesses went bankrupt
There will always be restaurants and bars, cruise and airlines... as long as there is demand for it
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:57 pm to Boring
Them credit cards must be helping - has to average close to $1,000/day for a family of 4
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:00 pm to lynxcat
Well this is terrifying
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:11 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Did you forget that over half of the laid off employees will have a higher income after taxes by not working than they made when they were working?
That sounds good in theory, but what good is a lower tax bracket when your income is zero?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:17 pm to EarlyCuyler3
quote:
That sounds good in theory, but what good is a lower tax bracket when your income is zero?
Why work when the government sends you checks?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:18 pm to EarlyCuyler3
quote:Many laid off workers will have an income of approximately $900+/- a week.
That sounds good in theory, but what good is a lower tax bracket when your income is zero?
How is that an income of zero?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:06 pm to lynxcat
How much of that 32% are people who are claiming unemployment from “cut hours” not completely unemployed?
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 8:07 pm
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:09 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Many laid off workers will have an income of approximately $900+/- a week.
How is that an income of zero?
Ah ok, wasn't thinking about unemployment. My bad. It's still less income though, no? I'd think spending would be down but who the hell knows anymore.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 8:52 am to lynxcat
and the totality death rate lowers by half bc we were afraid the virus with a name will kill too much.
Posted on 3/31/20 at 11:02 am to lynxcat
Yeah that's fear mongering. Just like the fella from England had to rework his whole model that basically claimed complete annihilation of the human race.
This too shall pass. And be revised at a later date.
Keep your head down. Keep working. Keep your family healthy.
This too shall pass. And be revised at a later date.
Keep your head down. Keep working. Keep your family healthy.
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