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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

technically, this is a sell right now on the short term chart. It's probably a bit overbought without actually looking at the RSI.


and, we're back to $5.82..... can't run forever.

Now will it rebound today?
This post was edited on 1/24 at 11:56 am


Wade Phillips
Member since Dec 2008
384 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I shorted at $5.85 this week. Hoping to catch it back around $5 and jump back in.


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

Hoping to catch it back around $5 and jump back in.
bold


YoungManOldMan
George Washington Fan
Member since Dec 2017
1882 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Hammered today. I’m trying not to pay attention to day to day. I’ll hold for 90 days and reevaluate unless I hear that I need to sell now.


Wade Phillips
Member since Dec 2008
384 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
What am I missing? It seems this thing moves on good news then settles back down over time. Is it not still 12+ months away from any material breakthroughs driving revenue?


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

and, we're back to $5.82..... can't run forever.

quote:

Hammered today
quote:

Now will it rebound today?
and yes, it has 5.98 now


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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

It seems this thing moves on good news then settles back down over time. Is it not still 12+ months away from any material breakthroughs driving revenue?

Nothing has driven this rise to $6 but a return to normalcy after a tax driven sell off that started in November.

You gotta figure that "normal" for this stock is $6.50 to $7 due to the massive number of shares that were offered last April at $6.75, which at the time, seemed like a GREAT deal.
The only reason it dropped much lower than that (into the $5s) is because they announced that phase III wouldn't be completed until late 2019. People dumped, and then people who bought at $7,8,9,10 dumped to harvest a tax loss late in 2017.

As predicted, it's rising back to a reasonable price that correlates to a 500-600 million market cap, and it's doing it faster than I expected.

Always remember, the potential sales for Voclosporin is upwards of 3 billion dollars. A buyout would likely reflect that price plus a little extra. Not likely to happen in 2018 though.


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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

unless I hear that I need to sell now.

AUPH is not a stock you sell. There's not one reason to sell it now, honestly.
AUPH is still a binary option kind of play for the most part.

You're rich or you lose 80% of your investment. They are working on other drugs, but the big one isn't finished for another 18-24 months.

quote:

I’m trying not to pay attention to day to day.

I've been day to day with it since Dec 2016. Trust me, 3% ain't hammered. Stick around and you'll see a 10-30% move upward at some point. That should be fun.
Price should start to appreciate as we get closer to that timeframe.


Jyrdis
Auburn Fan
Member since Aug 2015
5036 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I've been monitoring this one for a while. It behaves a lot like the biotechs I hold--great 10-20% jumps then it settles. I considered getting in when it fell below $5. Wish I had.

It's always interesting to watch these as some biotechs just surge to 100% gains or more for no reason, meanwhile we wait on our long holds for catalysts.


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

some biotechs just surge to 100% gains or more for no reason

usually prior to or after big data release.
Other than that mm’s are loading because they know good news is coming.


Paul Allen
Notre Dame Fan
Boca Raton, FL
Member since Nov 2007
53761 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Ultimately, where do you see this stock going? What’s its ceiling?


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
What’s your timeline?


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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

Ultimately, where do you see this stock going? What’s its ceiling?


Since nothing has gone wrong, it has no ceiling.
Think about what's on the line with two of their biggest needs.

1) First and foremost, Lupus Nephritis. This market is estimated at 3-5.5 Billion dollars by 2023
Aurinia will likely own the ENTIRE LN market. They are THE hope for people with this disease.

2) Dry Eye Syndrome. They have already begun the task of unseating Restasis in the DES market. Restasis sales rake in about 2 billion annually for Allergan. There is good reason to believe that AUPH's VOS can prove more effective than Restasis, and we'll know more about that as soon as mid summer.
Aurinia will take a significant share of the Dry Eye market

3) Aurinia is also at work on some other lesser known Kidney diseases for which data will again be released this year.

If all goes well, AUPH will be a 5 billion dollar company in 2-3 years.
What does that look like? $60/share
The question is, will they sell out early for an offer of 3 billion or $30/share?


This post was edited on 1/24 at 8:33 pm


Paul Allen
Notre Dame Fan
Boca Raton, FL
Member since Nov 2007
53761 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I like your forecast and optimism. They need to venture into other markets, as you stated. I could see it maybe in the 15-20 a share, perhaps as soon as 18-20 months from now.


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
That’s about what I’d expect pre data.

Also looking for 8-10 late this summer if data looks good for secondary drugs.
July $7.50 calls are worth a look.

You play tennis?


Paul Allen
Notre Dame Fan
Boca Raton, FL
Member since Nov 2007
53761 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

You play tennis?


I do. You?


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
9594 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I started playing because I admire the sport, and now I find myself coaching a high school team.

I'll meet you at Highland Rd. or something if you need an opponent. I can beat most of the kids on my team

bayoubengals1988@gmail.com


Breesus
New Orleans Saints Fan
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
62205 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
You ever notice that if you just sit and constantly refresh your Robinhood app it's an constant adrenaline rush. I kind of love it. That's dangerous. Fun. But dangerously addictive.
This post was edited on 1/25 at 8:53 am


LZ83
LSU Fan
La
Member since Sep 2016
7728 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I’m the same way with my Binance acct.


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Sgt_Lincoln_Osiris
LSU Fan
The Dirty Dell
Member since Dec 2014
644 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I'm in as of this morning so I expect a major dip.


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