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Started By
Message
re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
Posted on 1/24/18 at 11:55 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 1/24/18 at 11:55 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
technically, this is a sell right now on the short term chart. It's probably a bit overbought without actually looking at the RSI.
and, we're back to $5.82..... can't run forever.
Now will it rebound today?
This post was edited on 1/24/18 at 11:56 am
1
Posted on 1/24/18 at 11:58 am to bayoubengals88
I shorted at $5.85 this week. Hoping to catch it back around $5 and jump back in.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 12:02 pm to Wade Phillips
quote:bold
Hoping to catch it back around $5 and jump back in.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 12:32 pm to bayoubengals88
Hammered today. I’m trying not to pay attention to day to day. I’ll hold for 90 days and reevaluate unless I hear that I need to sell now.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 12:43 pm to bayoubengals88
What am I missing? It seems this thing moves on good news then settles back down over time. Is it not still 12+ months away from any material breakthroughs driving revenue?
Posted on 1/24/18 at 1:34 pm to YoungManOldMan
quote:
and, we're back to $5.82..... can't run forever.
quote:
Hammered today
quote:and yes, it has 5.98 now
Now will it rebound today?
Posted on 1/24/18 at 1:39 pm to Wade Phillips
quote:Nothing has driven this rise to $6 but a return to normalcy after a tax driven sell off that started in November.
It seems this thing moves on good news then settles back down over time. Is it not still 12+ months away from any material breakthroughs driving revenue?
You gotta figure that "normal" for this stock is $6.50 to $7 due to the massive number of shares that were offered last April at $6.75, which at the time, seemed like a GREAT deal.
The only reason it dropped much lower than that (into the $5s) is because they announced that phase III wouldn't be completed until late 2019. People dumped, and then people who bought at $7,8,9,10 dumped to harvest a tax loss late in 2017.
As predicted, it's rising back to a reasonable price that correlates to a 500-600 million market cap, and it's doing it faster than I expected.
Always remember, the potential sales for Voclosporin is upwards of 3 billion dollars. A buyout would likely reflect that price plus a little extra. Not likely to happen in 2018 though.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 1:46 pm to YoungManOldMan
quote:AUPH is not a stock you sell. There's not one reason to sell it now, honestly.
unless I hear that I need to sell now.
AUPH is still a binary option kind of play for the most part.
You're rich or you lose 80% of your investment. They are working on other drugs, but the big one isn't finished for another 18-24 months.
quote:I've been day to day with it since Dec 2016. Trust me, 3% ain't hammered. Stick around and you'll see a 10-30% move upward at some point. That should be fun.
I’m trying not to pay attention to day to day.
Price should start to appreciate as we get closer to that timeframe.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 5:15 pm to bayoubengals88
I've been monitoring this one for a while. It behaves a lot like the biotechs I hold--great 10-20% jumps then it settles. I considered getting in when it fell below $5. Wish I had.
It's always interesting to watch these as some biotechs just surge to 100% gains or more for no reason, meanwhile we wait on our long holds for catalysts.
It's always interesting to watch these as some biotechs just surge to 100% gains or more for no reason, meanwhile we wait on our long holds for catalysts.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 7:55 pm to Jyrdis
quote:usually prior to or after big data release.
some biotechs just surge to 100% gains or more for no reason
Other than that mm’s are loading because they know good news is coming.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 7:56 pm to bayoubengals88
Ultimately, where do you see this stock going? What’s its ceiling?
Posted on 1/24/18 at 8:04 pm to Paul Allen
What’s your timeline?
Posted on 1/24/18 at 8:30 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Ultimately, where do you see this stock going? What’s its ceiling?
Since nothing has gone wrong, it has no ceiling.
Think about what's on the line with two of their biggest needs.
1) First and foremost, Lupus Nephritis. This market is estimated at 3-5.5 Billion dollars by 2023
Aurinia will likely own the ENTIRE LN market. They are THE hope for people with this disease.
2) Dry Eye Syndrome. They have already begun the task of unseating Restasis in the DES market. Restasis sales rake in about 2 billion annually for Allergan. There is good reason to believe that AUPH's VOS can prove more effective than Restasis, and we'll know more about that as soon as mid summer.
Aurinia will take a significant share of the Dry Eye market
3) Aurinia is also at work on some other lesser known Kidney diseases for which data will again be released this year.
If all goes well, AUPH will be a 5 billion dollar company in 2-3 years.
What does that look like? $60/share
The question is, will they sell out early for an offer of 3 billion or $30/share?
This post was edited on 1/24/18 at 8:33 pm
Posted on 1/24/18 at 8:53 pm to bayoubengals88
I like your forecast and optimism. They need to venture into other markets, as you stated. I could see it maybe in the 15-20 a share, perhaps as soon as 18-20 months from now.
Posted on 1/24/18 at 8:56 pm to Paul Allen
That’s about what I’d expect pre data.
Also looking for 8-10 late this summer if data looks good for secondary drugs.
July $7.50 calls are worth a look.
You play tennis?
Also looking for 8-10 late this summer if data looks good for secondary drugs.
July $7.50 calls are worth a look.
You play tennis?
Posted on 1/24/18 at 9:10 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
You play tennis?
I do. You?
Posted on 1/24/18 at 9:27 pm to Paul Allen
I started playing because I admire the sport, and now I find myself coaching a high school team.
This post was edited on 9/21/21 at 7:14 pm
Posted on 1/25/18 at 8:50 am to bayoubengals88
You ever notice that if you just sit and constantly refresh your Robinhood app it's an constant adrenaline rush. I kind of love it. That's dangerous. Fun. But dangerously addictive.
This post was edited on 1/25/18 at 8:53 am
Posted on 1/25/18 at 9:48 am to Breesus
I’m the same way with my Binance acct.
Posted on 1/25/18 at 11:08 am to bayoubengals88
I'm in as of this morning so I expect a major dip.
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