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re: AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals

Posted on 11/19/19 at 3:21 pm to
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
6551 posts
Posted on 11/19/19 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

Very shortly nothing else will matter.


One of my favorite Stocktwits boards to read

they are 110% certain that this thing is going to $45 as soon as these results are released
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 11/19/19 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

they are 110% certain that this thing is going to $45 as soon as these results are released

NolamSparticus

I think they believe the buyout could be $45.
A more likely number for positive results is $15 from what I've seen.
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
6551 posts
Posted on 11/20/19 at 7:32 am to
You taking profits on good results or holding on for buyout?
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 11/20/19 at 3:40 pm to
Probably selling if it doubles because we’re looking to buy a house.

Leaving my Roth shares untouched.
There might not be a buyout. They might do it all themselves.
Posted by cuyahoga tiger
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
5825 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 9:06 am to
Up 9% this morning. Rumors of buyout getting traction?
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 9:22 am to
Phase 3 data imminent!!

A buyout would be a surprise.

Posted by cuyahoga tiger
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
5825 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 10:06 am to
3x normal volume all ready today. Curious as to any large/institutional buying.
Posted by MSTiger33
Member since Oct 2007
20360 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 12:18 pm to
Cant wait for the data. I got crushed by ADMP so I need a win.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 4:53 pm to
There will be a 30-50 million volume day very soon if data is positive.

People think the shorts and day traders are out. Perhaps we see $7.50 tomorrow
Posted by Puffoluffagus
Savannah, GA
Member since Feb 2009
6095 posts
Posted on 11/26/19 at 8:04 pm to
Sweet I'll be ready to offload all 10 of my shares.
Posted by Rendevoustavern
Member since May 2018
1536 posts
Posted on 11/29/19 at 8:57 am to
At this current pace we could see $8
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 11/29/19 at 9:18 am to
quote:

At this current pace we could see $8

I think $7-9 is fair value for the stock prior to data. The market either flat out disagreed for the past two years or it was manipulated to hell.

This is a great run though to data and options look STRONG.
Posted by Georgia Sooner 745
Member since Jan 2019
152 posts
Posted on 11/29/19 at 1:43 pm to
That was a fun week. Ready for data to drop in next 2 weeks.
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
6551 posts
Posted on 12/2/19 at 8:50 am to
kinda freaky watching the premiums on the put options go up when the stock price is rising as well..

big boys hedging their bets?
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 12/3/19 at 10:17 am to
This could be quite a large pharma company for those willing to wait.
More expansion underway with today's PR.
Posted by cuyahoga tiger
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
5825 posts
Posted on 12/3/19 at 3:23 pm to
Up again , over 5% today.... My long term hold on this is about 5 years...
Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
6551 posts
Posted on 12/3/19 at 8:06 pm to
All of the expansion and new hires certainly give the impression that they're planning to go at this alone, as opposed to hoping for a buyout
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 12/3/19 at 9:38 pm to
quote:

All of the expansion and new hires certainly give the impression that they're planning to go at this alone, as opposed to hoping for a buyout

I think a buyout price would have to be north of $30/share for them to entertain an offer. There's always a price.
Posted by MSTiger33
Member since Oct 2007
20360 posts
Posted on 12/3/19 at 10:03 pm to
That’s my feeling as well. If there is a BO then I think it will be around $25
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18881 posts
Posted on 12/3/19 at 10:41 pm to
A $25 buyout values the company just north of 2 billion dollars, yet Voclosporin's Lupus valuation alone is worth 2-3 billion per year (700k patients!).

Not to mention the need for the other indications: Dry Eye Syndrome, FSGS, and this new diabetes pre clinical!

That's why I think even an early buyout would need to be $40 or more per share, which is north of 5 billion dollars total. That's a proper valuation.



This post was edited on 12/3/19 at 10:48 pm
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