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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 11/1/21 at 7:26 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
What stock are you referring to here? HEPA?
Bcrx
Seemed like they were just starting phase 2 with estimated end of 24 or 25
Posted on 11/1/21 at 7:35 pm to oklahogjr
If you had $20k, would you buy more AUPH or BCRX?
Posted on 11/1/21 at 7:39 pm to MSTiger33
quote:You're not asking me, but if someone gave me 20k and told me to pick one I go with AUPH.
If you had $20k, would you buy more AUPH or BCRX?
Now, to both of you: BCRX has sales, and they can probably get to $20 based on revenue. I'll have to do some research. I do know they had a weird situation with an offering that was rescinded due to investor sentiment.
Posted on 11/1/21 at 7:44 pm to MSTiger33
quote:
you had $20k, would you buy
I like to divide up the risk and reward. I might do $4k each in AUPH, GTHX, MYOV, HEPA, and CTXR. If you have something against one of those then I might think about KMPH
Posted on 11/1/21 at 8:00 pm to MSTiger33
quote:
If you had $20k, would you buy more AUPH or BCRX?
Id probably put more in AUPH as it seems more certain and immediate play.
I like bcrx though and think entering here is prudent but it isn't a foot race. It's a longer term play before it achieves real value. Right now though it seems valued lower than my peak sales estimate for ordaleyo alone so it's a good buy all around. Although I'm not certain on their patents status there and how long we have to get there.
I'm real big on oral medicines competing with IV medicine in rare diseases especially.
I would also be looking to enter and invest across the genomics space as well. Seems like genomics is the next big wave Im looking at entry points everywhere there.
This post was edited on 11/1/21 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 11/1/21 at 8:03 pm to oklahogjr
quote:
I would also be looking to enter and invest across the genomics space as well.
In this area I am very impressed by the trajectory and potential of BNGO. Their potential customers are every newborn and every cancer patient.
Posted on 11/1/21 at 8:37 pm to oklahogjr
Have y'all seen the reddit page for BCRX? u/BIO9999 has provided extensive DD. He thinks that Orladeyo alone has the potential to create a share price well above $100 once fully realized, and that's just one drug out of an extensive pipeline.
Like every pharma stock they are convinced that institutions have done their best to hold the share price down.
He also mentions that two of the biggest cheerleaders for BCRX are none other than the perennial AUPH bashers R8 and nickpd. Why, just why?! Are they that jealous that AUPH is double the share price of BCRX? What the hell does it matter?
Like every pharma stock they are convinced that institutions have done their best to hold the share price down.
He also mentions that two of the biggest cheerleaders for BCRX are none other than the perennial AUPH bashers R8 and nickpd. Why, just why?! Are they that jealous that AUPH is double the share price of BCRX? What the hell does it matter?
Posted on 11/1/21 at 10:34 pm to bayoubengals88
So last offering was for $200m. Shares go from 17 to 15 and it's withdrawn. Shares sitting at 15 now are a steal assuming they aren't making up the 2023 runway with current cash. Ordaleyo needs to blow it out. I don't see how the share price gets to $100 even with blowouts.
So we're talking 7500 patients today and then 2500 who don't speak treatment for HAE approximately.
For the 485k per year per patient, is 4.85b assuming they take 100% of market including those who don't seek treatment today. $100/share would still be 3x peak year sales. Seems excessively high bar.
So we're talking 7500 patients today and then 2500 who don't speak treatment for HAE approximately.
For the 485k per year per patient, is 4.85b assuming they take 100% of market including those who don't seek treatment today. $100/share would still be 3x peak year sales. Seems excessively high bar.
Posted on 11/2/21 at 2:48 am to bayoubengals88
My gut is telling me to put it in AUPH. I have some bond positions in the iras that I manage so I am thinking of shifting to something with a bit more upside.
Posted on 11/2/21 at 6:19 am to MSTiger33
Are earnings today or tomorrow?
Posted on 11/2/21 at 6:41 am to jmcwhrter
quote:
Are earnings today or tomorrow?
Posted on 11/2/21 at 8:13 am to bayoubengals88
Subject says 11/2 and may be the source of the confusion.
Posted on 11/2/21 at 11:23 am to oklahogjr
quote:
So we're talking 7500 patients today and then 2500 who don't speak treatment for HAE approximately.
For the 485k per year per patient, is 4.85b assuming they take 100% of market including those who don't seek treatment today. $100/share would still be 3x peak year sales. Seems excessively high bar.
For the record I still think we're 3x from our current stock price based on these numbers.
Posted on 11/2/21 at 11:23 am to slacker00
Are we thinking there will be a dip tomorrow after the call?
Posted on 11/2/21 at 11:29 am to MSTiger33
quote:
Are we thinking there will be a dip tomorrow after the call
I'm surprised it's stayed up this long with no news to keep it going
Posted on 11/2/21 at 2:04 pm to oklahogjr
Back to $24 after earnings
Posted on 11/2/21 at 2:06 pm to LChama
Because you think earnings will be underwhelming?
Posted on 11/2/21 at 2:10 pm to LChama
And everyone buys back up to $32.
Posted on 11/2/21 at 2:11 pm to LChama
Just having flashbacks to the dip to $9 after FDA approval
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