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Anyone getting out of market?

Posted on 9/4/21 at 8:59 am
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 8:59 am
I’ve noticed the last 2 weeks a lot of my limit sell orders have gone through. I set most of these several months ago based on the stocks doubling or tripling from my buy price and over their 52 week high. This just feels a lot like a market top to me. I’m thinking about selling most of my $100,000 play stock money to buy back in cheaper later (not touching my retirement investments). Anyone else see a big pullback coming or is everyone diamond hands for life? The only doubt I have now is that it’s obvious the Fed won’t taper while Slow Joe is killing the economy. Just wonder how long cheap money can keep pushing the market up when the world is going to shite.
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82010 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 9:00 am to
quote:

$100,000 play stock money
must be nice
Posted by UltimaParadox
Huntsville
Member since Nov 2008
40825 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 9:07 am to
quote:

This just feels a lot like a market top to me


Hard to argue with that....

Good luck
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 9:07 am to
About 60% of that is gains on paper I made buying in 3/2020 during the crash. That’s one reason I’m thinking about selling. A paper gain is only on paper until actualized.
Posted by arcalades
USA
Member since Feb 2014
19276 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 9:18 am to
quote:

This just feels a lot like a market top to me.
they've pumped too much money into the market for it to top this early. inflation also brings inflation to the stock market. If you don't thing the Fed will taper, how on this planet did you come to the conclusion we're at the top?
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
4605 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 9:33 am to
quote:

I’m thinking about selling most of my $100,000 play stock money to buy back in cheaper later (not touching my retirement investments).
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 9:45 am to
We’ve had major pullbacks in the past with loose money policy. The wrong news could definitely spook a sell off. I don’t see fundamentals supporting current prices but that never stopped it before. Thanks for the feedback though. That’s what I’m looking for.
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 9:46 am
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82010 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 9:46 am to
Hard to say, without knowing what your goal for that part of the portfolio is. If you're light on cash, nothing wrong setting some aside for potential future opportunities
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 10:08 am to
It’s potential emergency money I could liquidate if needed but also essentially a hobby. It gives me something to do trading and researching stocks I enjoy. My retirement investments are all index funds I buy and hold.

The amount of down votes is funny. The jealousy is real apparently. I thought this was a money board for talking about money.
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 12:16 pm
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
14938 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 10:25 am to
quote:

getting out of market?



Nah. I’m not retiring for another 20+ years and far too dumb and risk averse to attempt to time it.


I hope I continue to buy at all time highs the rest of my life.
Posted by Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
4578 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 10:28 am to
We could very easily go up another 20% before having a 10-20% correction and be right back here.

I don’t see how you exit the interstate at this point though unless it’s to replenish emergency positions. “Safe” assets are in just as much danger if inflation/rates start going up, especially treasuries.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11066 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 10:31 am to
There is a way to hedge without “getting out.”

I actually just want to add on:

Fiscal and monetary authorities are all in a circle jerk, rates are still at extreme lows and should be ranged for quite some time, there’s nowhere to lend money, income hasn’t dropped, what exactly are you looking at?
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 10:37 am
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 10:35 am to
Thanks. I appreciate your thoughts on this. Your right that a 20% correction doesn’t mean much if you rode it another 10-15% higher before it happens. I’m thinking about the possibility of a 20-30% drop happening the next 2 months (though I’d buy the hell out of that).

I’ve put a lot of this money into energy, CEFs, and communications stocks that pay nice dividends as well so it’s almost like a savings account with a great rate. I’m just thinking about selling things like HAL I bought at $5 and it’s $20 now and the dividend has disappointed. I have a sell order in it at $25 now. Some of these stocks are flyers on things discussed on the board or things I find interesting like hallucinogen treatment companies CMPS or MNMD. It’s more fun following a topic when you have money on it.
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 10:48 am
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 10:39 am to
How are you hedging if you don’t mind?

“Diversify your stocks and bonds bitches.” -Method Man
Posted by Pendulum
Member since Jan 2009
7038 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 10:53 am to
quote:

The only doubt I have now is that it’s obvious the Fed won’t taper


And this is based on what?
You point out the fed not tapering based on some obvious indicator I must have missed and "slow joe" ruining the economy (presumably via out of control spending leading to inflation?) Yet you want to move to cash?

Then in later post, you call this "fun money", "potential emergency money".
It sounds like you need to increase your cash position to deal with your own anxieties. It doesn't have to be all or nothing in any direction, just re allocate. Also you need to realize when you turn that "paper gain" into gains, they are also becoming taxable gains. Long term vs short term gains makes a huge difference depending on your overall income, so it might not be the smartest thing to just take out the money to get off "paper" and then push it back in with no plan.

Sounds like "diamond hands" alright.
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 11:05 am
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11066 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 11:03 am to
Depends on your portfolio strategy and setup but there is really cheap insurance out there you just have to understand options pricing. You can fully hedge your portfolio for crashes selling ratio spreads ie sell delta 40 buy delta 20 puts at a 1:2 ratio on the index of your choice. The risk is there’s a collapse in IV then it’s not free
Posted by EA6B
TX
Member since Dec 2012
14754 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 11:04 am to
quote:

The amount of down votes is funny. The jealousy is real apparently. I thought this was a money board for talking about money.


The downvotes are probably because every week or so since the creation of this board someone posts that they are moving to cash because the market has topped, or they see a coming correction, and not a single time has anyone been right.
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 11:09 am to
I don’t have any anxiety and don’t want to be in cash. I think you are missing that I want to make the highest potential return. If I can miss a big drop and buy in at a lower point that math works better for me. I always avoid short term capital gains unless it’s a huge run up. Also if you are paying capital gains it means you made money.

Sounds like you think the economy is great and there are no financial issues currently. The recent jobs report was a huge miss. I don’t see Jerome tapering after that. Slow Joe is at 40% approval and we just had a total collapse in Afghanistan. China is cracking down on all the tech companies there. None of this seems like great economic news to me other than the mortgage REITs I own should benefit from no tapering.
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 11:33 am
Posted by Drizzt
Cimmeria
Member since Aug 2013
12852 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 11:12 am to
I read the board pretty regularly and haven’t seen this topic in the last few months but I don’t read every post. Like I said earlier, prices seem different the last 2 weeks so I just wanted to see what people were thinking.
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 12:18 pm
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11066 posts
Posted on 9/4/21 at 11:19 am to
Let’s just say equities are used as collateral for repo transactions. They are next in line for the bazooka. At some point it’ll all fall but you’d have to almost try and start a war with the CCP for that to happen.

We’re in a crack up boom don’t be dumb.
This post was edited on 9/4/21 at 11:20 am
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