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10-yr Interest Only ARM - Yes or No?

Posted on 12/17/20 at 3:13 pm
Posted by PenguinNinja
Antarctica (and Japan)
Member since Sep 2011
2081 posts
Posted on 12/17/20 at 3:13 pm
I'm looking to buy a home in Houston and am mulling over different options and would like the MB’s help:

I should set the scene by saying:
- I'm sitting on lots of cash
- I have always been very fiscally conservative.
- The probability that we’ll be in this house for > 10yrs is pretty low (< 10%)

I need to decide what to do with the cash and, depending on that, what to do about a mortgage.

After putting aside emergency funds and other such liquid safety nets, I’ll be able to put a minimum of 20% down, and may even be able to pay cash for the house depending on the price. Normally, I’d want to do this to avoid paying interest, but instead I’m leaning toward borrowing as much as possible and putting the cash to work in the market in relatively low-risk investments that I hope can return at least 4% annually. Generally, the expectation/hope is that I’ll be able to make more in other investment avenues than I’d be paying in interest on the mortgage.

It should be noted that Property Taxes in Houston are super high, so even if I have no mortgage, I’m still going to be shelling out 2-2.5% per year in Property Taxes, which is a strain on cash flow.

Question 1: Do I throw as much cash as possible at the house and minimize the amount I borrow, or borrow as much as possible at low rates and put the cash to work elsewhere?

Now, under the scenario that I borrow the maximum amount I can, I’m considering 2 options:
a. 30-yr Fixed Traditional Mortgage
b. 10-yr Interest Only ARM

Option a is my “base case” and is the only kind of mortgage I’ve ever gotten in the past, but if we buy a house that meets all our criteria in the area we need to be in, the payments for this combined with the property taxes are going to put some strain on my cash flow that I’m not sure I want. So I’m considering Option 2 to minimize payments. I recognize I won’t be building any equity in the house, but I’m not expecting significant appreciation in home values and don’t see the point in locking up my cash in home equity if I know I’m going to sell in less than 10 yrs. Also, I can always liquidate other investments to pay down the principal if I want or need to. Also, if we’re still in the house in yr 10, I’d expect to either refinance or just pay it off provided I haven’t totally lost my arse in other investments.

Honestly, Option B makes sense to me on paper, but I have this spidey-sense of fiscal conservativeness that’s telling me it’s a bad idea, but I can’t quite pinpoint why.

Question 2: Am I an idiot for considering Option b? What are the major risks and downsides that I’m missing?

Appreciate the guidance from the brilliant minds on the Money Board.
Posted by AUHighPlainsDrifter
South Carolina
Member since Sep 2017
3073 posts
Posted on 12/17/20 at 3:50 pm to
Considering everything you just posted, I'd go with option B and not think twice about it.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73184 posts
Posted on 12/17/20 at 3:52 pm to
IOs are typically the better option but not at the moment when the 30yr is under 3

Put 5% down Fannie/Freddie keep the cash
The mi with good credit is like .4

Get yourself a 2.5%
Posted by AUHighPlainsDrifter
South Carolina
Member since Sep 2017
3073 posts
Posted on 12/17/20 at 4:10 pm to
quote:

Put 5% down Fannie/Freddie keep the cash


Sounds like he's planning to do that and invest the 15% difference. My question is, what is the maximum LTV for a 10/1 IO loan, assuming good credit?
Posted by PenguinNinja
Antarctica (and Japan)
Member since Sep 2011
2081 posts
Posted on 12/17/20 at 5:13 pm to
FYI, my credit should be close to perfect. I’m not wanting to put less than 20% down...don’t want to mess with the risk of some value loss nor the complexity of PMI.
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
14939 posts
Posted on 12/18/20 at 7:18 am to
quote:

shelling out 2-2.5% per year in Property Taxes, which is a strain on cash flow.



If this is a dramatization, yeah- it blows. If it is an actual strain on your cash flow, it’s too much house.


quote:

Do I throw as much cash as possible at the house and minimize the amount I borrow, or borrow as much as possible at low rates and put the cash to work elsewhere?



These are two questions. One is a math question. The other is a psychology question. The math suggests that borrowing the most to invest the difference essentially always wins. There IS risk but realistically not a ton. The other half of the question is, “are you disciplined enough to actually do this?”
Of course, if this risk is not going to allow you to sleep at night, it’s not as if one answer is right and one is wrong.


quote:

Am I an idiot for considering Option b? What are the major risks and downsides that I’m missing?

Nah. I’m on a 7/1 ARM that’s interest only for 10y then converts to a 20y fixed. If you’re doing it because you can’t afford equity payments, it’s not a good idea. If you’re doing it because you want to change the debt you’re paying down (like another $200K in student loans that you refi) and actually move the payment from one sum to the other, perfect. And then if you’re trying to invest and make your principal payment to a brokerage account of some sort and invest in a diversified portfolio, you will probably come out ahead.
What could go wrong? Well, you could need the sum of money at the time that we go through a correction (thing March/April) and the housing market crashes, leaving your house worth less than you bought it for. Both of these generally come back.


It’s on the “aggressive” side of strategy, but I think it’s still within the lane and not “extreme.”
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
73184 posts
Posted on 12/18/20 at 8:52 am to
quote:

10/1 IO loan, assuming good credit?


20% minimum. But there is a premium to rate unless you go with majors like Chase and they need a lot of reserves

quote:

I’m not wanting to put less than 20% down...don’t want to mess with the risk of some value loss nor the complexity of PMI


How long do you plan to keep this?
Not sure I understand the value loss risk
MI is simple. Conv is about .4
Get a rate of 2.5 and your true rate is 2.9
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19348 posts
Posted on 12/18/20 at 9:02 am to
ARM's scare me. I'd only go down that road if I had the cash to bail if the interest rates went sky high.

At the current rate of interest and a wave of inflation coming, having a 30 year fixed mortgage is a good way to repay the installments with money worth less and less.
Posted by PenguinNinja
Antarctica (and Japan)
Member since Sep 2011
2081 posts
Posted on 12/18/20 at 10:40 am to
quote:

wave of inflation coming


I’m no expert, but haven’t we been waiting on this wave for a long while now? Is it possible it’s not coming?
Posted by Hopeful Doc
Member since Sep 2010
14939 posts
Posted on 12/18/20 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

ARM's scare me. I'd only go down that road if I had the cash to bail if the interest rates went sky high.



The maximum payment is essentially always included in the terms.
If you can afford the max possible payment + the fixed-rate payment, then if you take the ARM (especially if you have an anti-debt mindset and are willing to throw the difference of the two payments and pay the fixed-rate payment on the ARM terms), the rates would have to adjust high early and rapidly for it to cause you to lose money.


Jim Dahle says it often- A fixed rate loan is nothing but an ARM + an insurance policy for the increase in future interest rates.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
19348 posts
Posted on 12/21/20 at 8:17 am to
quote:

I’m no expert, but haven’t we been waiting on this wave for a long while now? Is it possible it’s not coming?


Saw a study a while back that noted that inflation tends to lag the money printing by quite a bit. It looks to me that the fed is dreadfully fearful of deflation.
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