So St. Bonaventure has played 1 Tournament team?

Facts lead to uneasiness.
SBU 4-2 vs Q1
LSU 5-8 vs Q1

But Geaux Tigers.

Nobody is scared of the Bonnies. Just have respect for a good opponent.

Alabama 3 times...

Also, Kentucky had a horrible year but they played their best game by far vs us. Ole Miss twice who almost made the tourney.

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Go look at that 4-2 Quad record and get back to me, Oh wait I'll help ya out:

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Yeah, that's why the line is a whopping LSU -1

It still is LSU losing 8 of 13 Q1 matchups and SBU winning 4 of 6.
I hope it's a cakewalk, but realize there's cause for concern.

To put this in perspective, the committee announced earlier this year that they would be seeding the entire tournament top to bottom due to the lack of need to make geographical changes. Michigan is the lowest 1 seed, meaning all of their even seeds are the top of their seed groups. Naturally all of the odds will be lowest of their groups. Only exception being they have to swap seeds to accommodate any conference matchups based on when they are allowed to happen(ie since we played Bama 3 times we can’t see them until the elite 8 and so on).

LINK

If you look at the overall seeding Maryland and Wisconsin were actually the final nines. Since they can’t play Michigan in R32 and can’t swap with Wisconsin for the same reason, SBU bumped up to a nine and Maryland to a 10.

So there you have it, you could basically consider this a 7/10 matchup. Combine that with the fact we are certainty more battle tested, and have elite talent, I see little path to victory based on something the bonnies can do to us.

As long as we don’t come out flat, this will be a roll. Tease it up to 6 and a hook.

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Wow, was shocked at that after looking at all the post here about how LSU fans are scared of this game

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most LSU fans probably have never even heard of them until this. They just repeat that thinking they sound smart

We lost to St. Louis...stupidly

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Complete bullshite with this Quad 1 stuff.

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You nailed it. It's contrived bullshite to justify screwing certain teams or conferences.

Quad makes me think of Jake on "Two and a Half Men" saying "S q u a b."

St Bonaventure reminds me of the Iona team LSU beat in their 2005 run.

There are tons of different numbers and stats to look to in evaluating the game.

SBU is 2-1 vs. NCAAT teams. But that record is against ONE team, VCU
LSU is 4-6 vs. NCAAT teams...three of the losses against one team, Alabama.

SBU played the 99th toughest schedule
LSU played the 28th toughest schedule

SBU is one of the few teams that fits the KenPom profile for a national champion (top 40 offense; top 20 defense). The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois, Houston, USC, Arkansas, Alabama, Wisconsin. That is pretty select company (though the uniqueness of this season my skew those numbers)

SBU has the 17th best defense in the country. However, that rating has come against the 97th strongest offensive schedule in the nation. That is the 5th worst of any of the top 9 seeds.

LSU has the 5th best offense in the country. That has come against the 14th best defensive schedule in the country.

LSU is 5-5 vs top 30 defensive teams; LSU is 3-6 vs. top 40 offensive teams.

SBU is 2-1 vs. top 30 defensive teams (all VCU); They are 2-0 vs. a top 40 offensive team (Davidson)

SBU's defense is great. They are allowing opponents to shoot the 5th lowest FG% in the nation.
Other than vs. Alabama LSU has generally shot well above average against the best FG% defenses in the country.

My thoughts:

I don't think SBU's defense will effect LSU to a large degree. I think LSU shoots above the 38% FG % SBU usually allows.

I don't think SBU's slow pace will bother LSU too much. LSU has played against several teams this year that play slow and they've beaten most of them (some pretty handily)

If LSU loses this game it will likely be because of:

1. They get killed on the offensive glass. LSU is a TERRIBLE defensive rebounding team. LSU isn't a great defense as whole. But they aren't bad in the halfcourt. Where they get buried is in transition and in 2nd chance points. If you give even bad teams second and third offensive possessions they will eventually convert.

2. They give up a large VOLUME of 3 point shots. LSU is top 20 in opponent 3 point FG%. The downside is they give up a LOT of made 3's per game (almost 9). SBU doesn't shoot a lot of 3's. So the question becomes "who comes out of their comfort zone on this?" Does SBU attempt more three's than they usually do because LSU is going to allow it? Or, does LSU put more emphasis on the 3 because (while they don't shoot a lot of them) SBU makes them at a relatively high %

I think on offense LSU will start by trying to go through Watford. They'll get ball to Watford up top to see if Ossuniyi will come out an guard him. If Ossuniyi guards Watford you will see a lot of drives early to see if Watford can get Ossuniyi into foul trouble. If someone else guards Watford they will be a a pretty severe height disadvantage and Watford will likely try to back him down. At that point I think SBU has to keep Ossuniyi near the rim to protect it. That means Days may be open for some good looks at 3. The question then becomes will Watford be willing to kick it out?

On defense I think LSU will initially try to pressure the ball to speed up the tempo (SBU wants to play slow). The risk there is SBU is a great passing team. LSU will pressure then fall back into a zone, giving SBU looks from 3. LSU will then dare SBU to take them to (1) see if they will and (2) see if they can make them. If SBU does the game plan will have to change quickly. But I think that is how LSU starts