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thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
51135 posts

Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
While, once again, we very likely need to go all the way and win the SECT to be in the NCAAT, the outside chance if extremely few bids end up being stolen, and we make the SECT title game and lose, we COULD have an outside shot of making the tourney as at-large.

Summary of tournaments that are over now:

B10 - Michigan won, they were already in, no bid stolen
MAAC - 1 bid conference
SoCon - 1 bid conference
ASUN - 1 bid conference
BSouth - 1 bid conference
MVC - Loyola (Chicago) was going to be the only at-large chance in but also won the tourney so no bid stolen there
OVC - Murray state only team that had a case for at-large, but won the tourney so no stolen bid there
CAA - 1 bid conference
Horizon - 1 bid conference
Northeast - 1 bid conference
Summit - South Dakota State only team with at-large argument but won tourney, no stolen bid there
WCC - Gonzaga and Saint Mary's only schools with at-large arguments but Gonzaga won the tourney, no stolen bid there

12 tournaments down, 0 stolen bids. The Patriot league championship is tonight between Colgate and Bucknell and no team in that conference has an at-large argument so it's a 1 bid conference.

If we make a run there's still a glimmer of hope, even if we lose in the SECT title game.


JR Hamilsbach
Member since Oct 2010
675 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
Excellent work sir and bodes well for us if we can win a few more games.

Am I crazy to think that if LSU beats Mississippi State and Tennessee then we're at least in the conversation as a dark horse at-large team with another added quad 1 win? And then with another win over Arkansas or Florida we're squarely in the conversation and officially a bubble team with no guarantees?


the LSUSaint
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2009
11518 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

there's still a glimmer of hope


No.....no there isn't


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956
thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
51135 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

Am I crazy to think that if LSU beats Mississippi State and Tennessee then we're at least in the conversation as a dark horse at-large team with another added quad 1 win?


Our RPI just won't be sufficient enough at that point. While we have a very quality resume in terms of quality wins, with 2 wins and a loss in the SECT our RPI will be somewhere around the mid 70s or so. The worst RPI team to ever be selected as an at-large was USC several years ago with an RPI of 67. So we definitely want to be at least in the mid-60 range. Right now our RPI is 87, which is very bad. We definitely want Arkansas or Florida if we beat Tennessee, a win over Ole Miss/South Carolina doesnt really help at all, but highly unlikely either of them rip off 3 wins to get there.


Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
10781 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

Our RPI just won't be sufficient enough at that point. While we have a very quality resume in terms of quality wins, with 2 wins and a loss in the SECT our RPI will be somewhere around the mid 70s or so. The worst RPI team to ever be selected as an at-large was USC several years ago with an RPI of 67. So we definitely want to be at least in the mid-60 range. Right now our RPI is 87, which is very bad. We definitely want Arkansas or Florida if we beat Tennessee, a win over Ole Miss/South Carolina doesnt really help at all, but highly unlikely either of them rip off 3 wins to get there.


Good analysis. But I think 75 is the RPI cutoff. The reason I think that is because of the development of the Quadrant system. Road wins over the RPI top 75 are Q1 wins. Why 75?

From the selection committee chairman:

quote:

The quadrant system is simply a sorting mechanism. The ranges in the quadrants were selected because of historical data that shows that a road win against a team with an RPI of 75 is comparable to a home win against a team with an RPI of 30, for instance. And the importance of quadrant 1 is that historically, there has been only one team that has been selected for the tournament as an at-large entrant with an RPI of worse than 75.

Therefore, historically, only teams with RPIs of 75 or better have gotten in the tournament. That doesn't mean that if you have an RPI of 75 or better you are getting into the tournament, it just means that historically only those teams are candidates.






I can't see the committee bucking their quadrant system the first year out of the gate. Thus, unless you have a 75 or below RPI, you aren't qualified to receive an at-large bid. That doesn't mean 75 gets you in. But it is a prerequisite to get you considered

Obviously everything is fluid because you have to account for the results of 300+ other teams. But a win over MSU would likely give LSU a RPI in the range of 76-80...not good enough. A win then a loss to Tenn. would put the RPI around 80...still not good enough.

However, beating Tenn. would be ENORMOUS! Because even with a loss to Florida or Arkansas in the next game, LSU could still have a RPI in the 75-71 range. If by some great fortune LSU could make a run to the championship game, the committee would have to think long and hard about keeping them out. The reason is that LSU would have several great wins AND the majority of those wins would have come AWAY from home (Mich, A&M, Ark, Tenn., Fla/Ark.)

Longshot? Absolutely. But until the run ends, just enjoy the fun. LSU is playing with house money right now.


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120
Zanzibaw
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi
Member since Jun 2016
860 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

The worst RPI team to ever be selected as an at-large was USC several years ago with an RPI of 67


And I'm sure there were some stolen bids that year as opposed to this year.


thunderbird1100
LSU Fan
GSU Eagles fan
Member since Oct 2007
51135 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

And I'm sure there were some stolen bids that year as opposed to this year.



There's always some stolen bids, and I wouldnt bet against it this year either. It's just a matter of will it be 1, 2, 4, etc...

Basically the way to look at it is for every stolen bid, the worst team on the last 4 in is out.

The 3 conferences to really watch here this year are the MWC, A10 and P12. The AAC as well just outside that.
This post was edited on 3/7 at 8:49 am


doya2
LSU Fan
Charenton
Member since Jan 2005
6144 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
Jjust win the damn thing!
This post was edited on 3/18 at 2:20 pm


Alt26
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
10781 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

The 3 conferences to really watch here this year are the MWC, A10 and P12. The AAC as well just outside that.


The A10 is really worrisome for the bubble teams. RI and St. Bonaventure are getting in regardless. No one else is getting in from that league unless they win the conf. tournament. Same for MWC with Nevada already being a lock.

The Pac 12 is what the SEC was a few years ago. One good team (Arizona) and a bunch of mediocrity behind them. Yet again, USC, UCLA, are on the bubble. Same for Syracuse in the ACC. Although objectively it shouldn't matter, I wonder if the committee might have a bit of fatigue with teams like UCLA, Syracuse, USC seemingly always being on the bubble. They have generally found their way in. Maybe this year is different.

Regardless, I think the Pac 12 is probably getting at least 1 or 2 of the bubble spots.

Today is a big day for bubble teams:

Louisville v. Florida St. (want FSU to win)
OU vs. Oklahoma St. (want OU to win)
Syracuse v. UNC (absolutely need UNC to win)
DePaul v. Marquette (a DePaul win would crush MU's chances)
Notre Dame v. Va. Tech (want Va. Tech to win)


geauxcoco
LSU Fan
Charleston, SC
Member since Apr 2007
4278 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet


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90
lsupicker
Member since Oct 2015
278 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
Let's take it 1 game at a time, win every one and we are Nat. Champs


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10
BlackAdam
Nicholls St. Fan
Member since Jan 2016
1741 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
Richie Riley is going to take Nicholls State dancing. Book it. That dude can flat out coach. He'll be heading a major program in a few years.


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26
The Truth 34
Los Angeles Dodgers Fan
Member since May 2010
33934 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
This was Lunardi’s tweet last night:

quote:

FIRST FOUR OUT: Louisville, Marquette, Okla St, NDame. NEXT FOUR OUT: Syracuse, Penn St, Boise St, Nebraska. FRINGE: WKU, LSU, Mississippi St.


Penn St and Nebraska are done, which is a plus. We’re VERY close, fellas...especially if the teams ahead of us get bounced.


gar90
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2009
4942 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
At this point, what we need is conference champions to win their tournament. Otherwise they get an auto NIT bid. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to go dancing, but short of winning the SEC tournament I feel like there is no scenario where we are not on the outside looking in.


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30
Minden tiger
LSU Fan
Minden,Louisiana
Member since Apr 2006
2625 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
Need Notre Dame to NOT make a run in their conference tourney due to their head-to-head win over us. Louisville doesn't deserve a bid, Marquette also needs to lose early.


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20
El Campo Tiger
Houston Astros Fan
El Campo, TX
Member since Mar 2015
4980 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
This is great news.

Hopefully this trend continues.



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00
Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
6643 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

While, once again, we very likely need to go all the way and win the SECT to be in the NCAAT, the outside chance if extremely few bids end up being stolen, and we make the SECT title game and lose, we COULD have an outside shot of making the tourney as at-large.

Summary of tournaments that are over now:

B10 - Michigan won, they were already in, no bid stolen
MAAC - 1 bid conference
SoCon - 1 bid conference
ASUN - 1 bid conference
BSouth - 1 bid conference
MVC - Loyola (Chicago) was going to be the only at-large chance in but also won the tourney so no bid stolen there
OVC - Murray state only team that had a case for at-large, but won the tourney so no stolen bid there
CAA - 1 bid conference
Horizon - 1 bid conference
Northeast - 1 bid conference
Summit - South Dakota State only team with at-large argument but won tourney, no stolen bid there
WCC - Gonzaga and Saint Mary's only schools with at-large arguments but Gonzaga won the tourney, no stolen bid there

12 tournaments down, 0 stolen bids. The Patriot league championship is tonight between Colgate and Bucknell and no team in that conference has an at-large argument so it's a 1 bid conference.

If we make a run there's still a glimmer of hope, even if we lose in the SECT title game.






Please stop posting forever.


LSUMurple
LSU Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2011
703 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
If we beat Miss St. and Tenn - our RPI will be 65, SOS at 39.

If we then lose to FL - our final RPI will be 71, SOS at 38

If we beat FL - Our RPI will be 61, SOS 38 - We will be last 4 in at this point or last four out.


Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
6643 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:


Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
If we beat Miss St. and Tenn - our RPI will be 65, SOS at 39.

If we then lose to FL - our final RPI will be 71, SOS at 38

If we beat FL - Our RPI will be 61, SOS 38 - We will be last 4 in at this point or last four out.




We not getting in unless we win the tournament do you understand?


The Truth 34
Los Angeles Dodgers Fan
Member since May 2010
33934 posts

re: Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
quote:

Please stop posting forever.


Yea, shame on the OP for laying out exactly what’s ahead for our tournamnet chances. How dare he? Give me a break.

Seriously, maybe you’re the one who should stop posting.


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