- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
Posted on 3/7/18 at 7:44 am
Posted on 3/7/18 at 7:44 am
While, once again, we very likely need to go all the way and win the SECT to be in the NCAAT, the outside chance if extremely few bids end up being stolen, and we make the SECT title game and lose, we COULD have an outside shot of making the tourney as at-large.
Summary of tournaments that are over now:
B10 - Michigan won, they were already in, no bid stolen
MAAC - 1 bid conference
SoCon - 1 bid conference
ASUN - 1 bid conference
BSouth - 1 bid conference
MVC - Loyola (Chicago) was going to be the only at-large chance in but also won the tourney so no bid stolen there
OVC - Murray state only team that had a case for at-large, but won the tourney so no stolen bid there
CAA - 1 bid conference
Horizon - 1 bid conference
Northeast - 1 bid conference
Summit - South Dakota State only team with at-large argument but won tourney, no stolen bid there
WCC - Gonzaga and Saint Mary's only schools with at-large arguments but Gonzaga won the tourney, no stolen bid there
12 tournaments down, 0 stolen bids. The Patriot league championship is tonight between Colgate and Bucknell and no team in that conference has an at-large argument so it's a 1 bid conference.
If we make a run there's still a glimmer of hope, even if we lose in the SECT title game.
Summary of tournaments that are over now:
B10 - Michigan won, they were already in, no bid stolen
MAAC - 1 bid conference
SoCon - 1 bid conference
ASUN - 1 bid conference
BSouth - 1 bid conference
MVC - Loyola (Chicago) was going to be the only at-large chance in but also won the tourney so no bid stolen there
OVC - Murray state only team that had a case for at-large, but won the tourney so no stolen bid there
CAA - 1 bid conference
Horizon - 1 bid conference
Northeast - 1 bid conference
Summit - South Dakota State only team with at-large argument but won tourney, no stolen bid there
WCC - Gonzaga and Saint Mary's only schools with at-large arguments but Gonzaga won the tourney, no stolen bid there
12 tournaments down, 0 stolen bids. The Patriot league championship is tonight between Colgate and Bucknell and no team in that conference has an at-large argument so it's a 1 bid conference.
If we make a run there's still a glimmer of hope, even if we lose in the SECT title game.
8
Posted on 3/7/18 at 7:52 am to thunderbird1100
Excellent work sir and bodes well for us if we can win a few more games.
Am I crazy to think that if LSU beats Mississippi State and Tennessee then we're at least in the conversation as a dark horse at-large team with another added quad 1 win? And then with another win over Arkansas or Florida we're squarely in the conversation and officially a bubble team with no guarantees?
Am I crazy to think that if LSU beats Mississippi State and Tennessee then we're at least in the conversation as a dark horse at-large team with another added quad 1 win? And then with another win over Arkansas or Florida we're squarely in the conversation and officially a bubble team with no guarantees?
Posted on 3/7/18 at 8:02 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
there's still a glimmer of hope
No.....no there isn't
Posted on 3/7/18 at 8:06 am to JR Hamilsbach
quote:
Am I crazy to think that if LSU beats Mississippi State and Tennessee then we're at least in the conversation as a dark horse at-large team with another added quad 1 win?
Our RPI just won't be sufficient enough at that point. While we have a very quality resume in terms of quality wins, with 2 wins and a loss in the SECT our RPI will be somewhere around the mid 70s or so. The worst RPI team to ever be selected as an at-large was USC several years ago with an RPI of 67. So we definitely want to be at least in the mid-60 range. Right now our RPI is 87, which is very bad. We definitely want Arkansas or Florida if we beat Tennessee, a win over Ole Miss/South Carolina doesnt really help at all, but highly unlikely either of them rip off 3 wins to get there.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 8:29 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
Our RPI just won't be sufficient enough at that point. While we have a very quality resume in terms of quality wins, with 2 wins and a loss in the SECT our RPI will be somewhere around the mid 70s or so. The worst RPI team to ever be selected as an at-large was USC several years ago with an RPI of 67. So we definitely want to be at least in the mid-60 range. Right now our RPI is 87, which is very bad. We definitely want Arkansas or Florida if we beat Tennessee, a win over Ole Miss/South Carolina doesnt really help at all, but highly unlikely either of them rip off 3 wins to get there.
Good analysis. But I think 75 is the RPI cutoff. The reason I think that is because of the development of the Quadrant system. Road wins over the RPI top 75 are Q1 wins. Why 75?
From the selection committee chairman:
quote:
The quadrant system is simply a sorting mechanism. The ranges in the quadrants were selected because of historical data that shows that a road win against a team with an RPI of 75 is comparable to a home win against a team with an RPI of 30, for instance. And the importance of quadrant 1 is that historically, there has been only one team that has been selected for the tournament as an at-large entrant with an RPI of worse than 75.
Therefore, historically, only teams with RPIs of 75 or better have gotten in the tournament. That doesn't mean that if you have an RPI of 75 or better you are getting into the tournament, it just means that historically only those teams are candidates.
I can't see the committee bucking their quadrant system the first year out of the gate. Thus, unless you have a 75 or below RPI, you aren't qualified to receive an at-large bid. That doesn't mean 75 gets you in. But it is a prerequisite to get you considered
Obviously everything is fluid because you have to account for the results of 300+ other teams. But a win over MSU would likely give LSU a RPI in the range of 76-80...not good enough. A win then a loss to Tenn. would put the RPI around 80...still not good enough.
However, beating Tenn. would be ENORMOUS! Because even with a loss to Florida or Arkansas in the next game, LSU could still have a RPI in the 75-71 range. If by some great fortune LSU could make a run to the championship game, the committee would have to think long and hard about keeping them out. The reason is that LSU would have several great wins AND the majority of those wins would have come AWAY from home (Mich, A&M, Ark, Tenn., Fla/Ark.)
Longshot? Absolutely. But until the run ends, just enjoy the fun. LSU is playing with house money right now.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 8:42 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
The worst RPI team to ever be selected as an at-large was USC several years ago with an RPI of 67
And I'm sure there were some stolen bids that year as opposed to this year.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 8:46 am to Zanzibaw
quote:
And I'm sure there were some stolen bids that year as opposed to this year.
There's always some stolen bids, and I wouldnt bet against it this year either. It's just a matter of will it be 1, 2, 4, etc...
Basically the way to look at it is for every stolen bid, the worst team on the last 4 in is out.
The 3 conferences to really watch here this year are the MWC, A10 and P12. The AAC as well just outside that.
This post was edited on 3/7/18 at 8:49 am
Posted on 3/7/18 at 8:50 am to thunderbird1100
Jjust win the damn thing!
This post was edited on 3/18/18 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:26 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
The 3 conferences to really watch here this year are the MWC, A10 and P12. The AAC as well just outside that.
The A10 is really worrisome for the bubble teams. RI and St. Bonaventure are getting in regardless. No one else is getting in from that league unless they win the conf. tournament. Same for MWC with Nevada already being a lock.
The Pac 12 is what the SEC was a few years ago. One good team (Arizona) and a bunch of mediocrity behind them. Yet again, USC, UCLA, are on the bubble. Same for Syracuse in the ACC. Although objectively it shouldn't matter, I wonder if the committee might have a bit of fatigue with teams like UCLA, Syracuse, USC seemingly always being on the bubble. They have generally found their way in. Maybe this year is different.
Regardless, I think the Pac 12 is probably getting at least 1 or 2 of the bubble spots.
Today is a big day for bubble teams:
Louisville v. Florida St. (want FSU to win)
OU vs. Oklahoma St. (want OU to win)
Syracuse v. UNC (absolutely need UNC to win)
DePaul v. Marquette (a DePaul win would crush MU's chances)
Notre Dame v. Va. Tech (want Va. Tech to win)
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:28 am to doya2
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:32 am to Alt26
Let's take it 1 game at a time, win every one and we are Nat. Champs
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:37 am to thunderbird1100
Richie Riley is going to take Nicholls State dancing. Book it. That dude can flat out coach. He'll be heading a major program in a few years.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:45 am to Alt26
This was Lunardi’s tweet last night:
Penn St and Nebraska are done, which is a plus. We’re VERY close, fellas...especially if the teams ahead of us get bounced.
quote:
FIRST FOUR OUT: Louisville, Marquette, Okla St, NDame. NEXT FOUR OUT: Syracuse, Penn St, Boise St, Nebraska. FRINGE: WKU, LSU, Mississippi St.
Penn St and Nebraska are done, which is a plus. We’re VERY close, fellas...especially if the teams ahead of us get bounced.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:55 am to thunderbird1100
At this point, what we need is conference champions to win their tournament. Otherwise they get an auto NIT bid. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to go dancing, but short of winning the SEC tournament I feel like there is no scenario where we are not on the outside looking in.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:59 am to The Truth 34
Need Notre Dame to NOT make a run in their conference tourney due to their head-to-head win over us. Louisville doesn't deserve a bid, Marquette also needs to lose early.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 9:59 am to thunderbird1100
This is great news.
Hopefully this trend continues.
Hopefully this trend continues.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 10:05 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
While, once again, we very likely need to go all the way and win the SECT to be in the NCAAT, the outside chance if extremely few bids end up being stolen, and we make the SECT title game and lose, we COULD have an outside shot of making the tourney as at-large.
Summary of tournaments that are over now:
B10 - Michigan won, they were already in, no bid stolen
MAAC - 1 bid conference
SoCon - 1 bid conference
ASUN - 1 bid conference
BSouth - 1 bid conference
MVC - Loyola (Chicago) was going to be the only at-large chance in but also won the tourney so no bid stolen there
OVC - Murray state only team that had a case for at-large, but won the tourney so no stolen bid there
CAA - 1 bid conference
Horizon - 1 bid conference
Northeast - 1 bid conference
Summit - South Dakota State only team with at-large argument but won tourney, no stolen bid there
WCC - Gonzaga and Saint Mary's only schools with at-large arguments but Gonzaga won the tourney, no stolen bid there
12 tournaments down, 0 stolen bids. The Patriot league championship is tonight between Colgate and Bucknell and no team in that conference has an at-large argument so it's a 1 bid conference.
If we make a run there's still a glimmer of hope, even if we lose in the SECT title game.
Please stop posting forever.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 10:09 am to thunderbird1100
If we beat Miss St. and Tenn - our RPI will be 65, SOS at 39.
If we then lose to FL - our final RPI will be 71, SOS at 38
If we beat FL - Our RPI will be 61, SOS 38 - We will be last 4 in at this point or last four out.
If we then lose to FL - our final RPI will be 71, SOS at 38
If we beat FL - Our RPI will be 61, SOS 38 - We will be last 4 in at this point or last four out.
Posted on 3/7/18 at 10:12 am to LSUMurple
quote:
Not a single bid for NCAAT has been stolen yet
If we beat Miss St. and Tenn - our RPI will be 65, SOS at 39.
If we then lose to FL - our final RPI will be 71, SOS at 38
If we beat FL - Our RPI will be 61, SOS 38 - We will be last 4 in at this point or last four out.
We not getting in unless we win the tournament do you understand?
Posted on 3/7/18 at 10:12 am to Double Oh
quote:
Please stop posting forever.
Yea, shame on the OP for laying out exactly what’s ahead for our tournamnet chances. How dare he? Give me a break.
Seriously, maybe you’re the one who should stop posting.
Page 1 of 3
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News