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re: Lunardi Bracketology (LSU - 5 seed)
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:16 pm to Trauma14
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:16 pm to Trauma14
While I think your trend makes sense here, just want to point out there is no way this graphic about % wins in second round is correct has the correct %'s.
The 1 seed always plays the 8 or 9. So for internal consistency the % wins for those columns should add up to 100% exactly. Here is about 10% points in total over.
You can see that as you go to the 2/7/10/15 it is well above 100% as well.
Probably a spreadsheet error (denominator should be bigger in the individual seed calculations) and the trends are accurate, but don't take these % and quote them as gospel.
The 1 seed always plays the 8 or 9. So for internal consistency the % wins for those columns should add up to 100% exactly. Here is about 10% points in total over.
You can see that as you go to the 2/7/10/15 it is well above 100% as well.
Probably a spreadsheet error (denominator should be bigger in the individual seed calculations) and the trends are accurate, but don't take these % and quote them as gospel.
1
Posted on 1/22/19 at 12:35 pm to NorCali
quote:
While I think your trend makes sense here, just want to point out there is no way this graphic about % wins in second round is correct has the correct %'s.
The 1 seed always plays the 8 or 9. So for internal consistency the % wins for those columns should add up to 100% exactly. Here is about 10% points in total over.
You can see that as you go to the 2/7/10/15 it is well above 100% as well.
Probably a spreadsheet error (denominator should be bigger in the individual seed calculations) and the trends are accurate, but don't take these % and quote them as gospel.
Not to derail thread cause it's not pertinent but I love math and unfortunately yours isn't necessarily correct.
Here's the correct math:
Seed 1 wins 87% of of the time.
thus
Seed 8 or 9 wins 13% of the time
Seed 8 wins 17% of the time
Seed 9 wins 8% of the time
Thus (A)*.17 + (B)*.08 = .13
Solving that if A = 76.66% and B = 23.33% than the information can be correct. So if the 8 seed wins 76.66% of the time in the matchup vs seed 9 the data can still be correct.
This also isn't taking into account the 1 time a 16 seed won the opening round.
This post was edited on 1/22/19 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 1/22/19 at 1:40 pm to TheCaterpillar
UVA shoots 40% from 3 and they do not allow fast breaks. I’d rather play Duke
Posted on 1/22/19 at 1:43 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
UVA shoots 40% from 3 and they do not allow fast breaks. I’d rather play Duke
UVA chokes in the tournament, and Duke has the best college player in years. I'd much prefer UVA.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 2:36 pm to tigerclaw10
I heard one of the idiots on ESPN say that one of the NBA stars told Zion he should shut it down right now, and not play another game. I wasn't paying attention as to who they attributed the info from , but after the bowl games, you know it's coming more & more. What a quick way to frick up a team . Since it's Duke , putting another All American in wont be a problem . Other programs will be more likely to have to bite the bullet. 
Posted on 1/22/19 at 5:33 pm to Jack Crevalle
quote:LSU will always match up much better with athletic teams. Remember Wisconsin? Purdue?
UVA chokes in the tournament, and Duke has the best college player in years. I'd much prefer UVA.
Those are the kind of teams that kill us with fundamentals, and that's exactly what UVA is. I think they'd beat us 62-49 seven out of ten times.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 5:38 pm to LSU Neil
quote:
You realize 7-8-9 are playing each other in most cases.....that is why it appears to be 50/50
He's talking about the second round. They're low because they're playing the 1 seed (8-9) or the 2 seed (7).
Posted on 1/22/19 at 6:02 pm to Jack Crevalle
quote:
UVA chokes in the tournament, and Duke has the best college player in years. I'd much prefer UVA.
Lets just get there first................
Posted on 1/22/19 at 6:41 pm to dukke v
quote:i love how we're playing, but it's WAY too early. Let's talk near the end of the regular season.
Lets just get there first.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 6:44 pm to cheeser
quote:basketball isn't like football. The chance of a career ending injury is much lower in basketball.
I heard one of the idiots on ESPN say that one of the NBA stars told Zion he should shut it down right now, and not play another game.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 10:52 pm to tigahlovah
People’s obsession for Duke around these parts is ridiculous. Jones got lost early, but it also shows their complete lack of depth for their team.
In 2006, the Duke team that consisted of Redick and Williams and were favorites to win. Like Duke this year, Duke was 2 great players and many role players. We shut down a great player and forced role players to step up and they didn’t. This Duke team has 2 great players, 2 solid players, then extremely average players. If Zion or Barrett get in foul trouble they lose games. They will lose more games this season. They’re not invincible
In 2006, the Duke team that consisted of Redick and Williams and were favorites to win. Like Duke this year, Duke was 2 great players and many role players. We shut down a great player and forced role players to step up and they didn’t. This Duke team has 2 great players, 2 solid players, then extremely average players. If Zion or Barrett get in foul trouble they lose games. They will lose more games this season. They’re not invincible
Posted on 1/22/19 at 10:54 pm to TheCaterpillar
I actually think that we are becoming a team that can smother teams in the half court. As the season has progressed, our team has evolved. We can play slow ball, too
Posted on 1/23/19 at 3:12 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
I'm thinking 18n0 or 17 n 1
Posted on 1/23/19 at 6:40 am to The Truth 34
quote:
Naz would be on the bench with 2 fouls in less than 3 minutes. He’s not quick enough to guard Zion.
Though they aren’t as big I think a rotation of Marlon Taylor or Emmitt Williams could slow him down some because they could match his speed and athleticism.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 7:42 am to LSUButt
I don't care about duke, I HATE gayheim and syracluse.
Posted on 1/23/19 at 7:02 pm to bayoubengals88
I'm just loving the fact that we're on track to make the tourney. Keep this up and our seeding will be solid. 
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