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Football Defensive Stats
Posted on 7/19/14 at 7:57 pm
Posted on 7/19/14 at 7:57 pm
The current way defensive stats are presented is flawed. Points per game can be influenced by special teams and offensive turnovers.
Yards per game is not the right measure as you win with points not yards.
I propose a Defensive Rating similar to quarterbacks. Divide the points allowed by two things:
1. The number of yards not defended on the scoring drive. That is, if the drive starts on the opponents 30, use 30. If the drive starts on your 30, use 70.
2. The number of plays on the scoring drive
Multiply everything by 100 so you are not dealing with numbers less than 1. The lower the number, the better.
Last year, LSU's best defensive showing was 2.20 against Florida. The worst rating was 23 .96 against Georgia
The opponents best rating (therefore our worst offensive performance) was 5 .53 against Florida
The worst opponent rating (our best offensive outing) was 98.4 against Auburn
Yards per game is not the right measure as you win with points not yards.
I propose a Defensive Rating similar to quarterbacks. Divide the points allowed by two things:
1. The number of yards not defended on the scoring drive. That is, if the drive starts on the opponents 30, use 30. If the drive starts on your 30, use 70.
2. The number of plays on the scoring drive
Multiply everything by 100 so you are not dealing with numbers less than 1. The lower the number, the better.
Last year, LSU's best defensive showing was 2.20 against Florida. The worst rating was 23 .96 against Georgia
The opponents best rating (therefore our worst offensive performance) was 5 .53 against Florida
The worst opponent rating (our best offensive outing) was 98.4 against Auburn
4
Posted on 7/19/14 at 8:15 pm to BigLSUNut
Posted on 7/19/14 at 10:43 pm to BigLSUNut
Are you doing (points/yards/plays)x100
?
What was our average? How did it stack up?
?
What was our average? How did it stack up?
This post was edited on 7/19/14 at 10:45 pm
Posted on 7/19/14 at 11:35 pm to BigLSUNut
I like the idea, and agree with your premise. Without knowing the exact methodology, a suggestion:
I don't know if you already do this, but there should be a way to factor in scores and yards gained by the defense. For instance, a pick six is not the fault of the opposing defense, so it shouldn't count against them. However, a defensive rating should be rewarded with a pick six, since it was a score by a defensive player, and more productive than just a turnover with no gain.
With that being said, your numbers match my general opinion about last season. Good work.
I don't know if you already do this, but there should be a way to factor in scores and yards gained by the defense. For instance, a pick six is not the fault of the opposing defense, so it shouldn't count against them. However, a defensive rating should be rewarded with a pick six, since it was a score by a defensive player, and more productive than just a turnover with no gain.
With that being said, your numbers match my general opinion about last season. Good work.
This post was edited on 7/20/14 at 12:47 am
Posted on 7/20/14 at 12:41 am to CheerWhine
quote:
If high numbers are bad, then dividing by number of yards allowed on a drive isn't the way to go, since a 99-yard TD drive would be worth fewer points than a 1-yard TD drive, but is obviously a worse defensive performance. Maybe something like (100 - yards allowed).
I think that's what he did.
Posted on 7/20/14 at 12:46 am to noonan
Yeah you're right, I got a little mixed up. I read "not defended" as "allowed", my bad.
Posted on 7/20/14 at 11:12 am to noonan
The defensive ratings from last year:
LSU 18.80. Alabama 6.07
LSU 11.36. Arkansas 88.13
LSU. 17.83. Auburn 98.42
LSU 2.20 Florida 5.53
LSU 2.68. Furman 34.46
LSU 23.96. Georgia 15.68
LSU 5.15 Iowa. 10.92
LSU 4.51. Kent St. 31.66
LSU 20.89 Mississippi St. 35.61
LSU 13.17. Mississippi 7.09
LSU 7.23. TCU. 21.17
LSU 8.76. Texas A&M 18.33
LSU 6.98. UAB. 30.77
LSU Average. 11.04. Opponent Average 30.77
LSU 18.80. Alabama 6.07
LSU 11.36. Arkansas 88.13
LSU. 17.83. Auburn 98.42
LSU 2.20 Florida 5.53
LSU 2.68. Furman 34.46
LSU 23.96. Georgia 15.68
LSU 5.15 Iowa. 10.92
LSU 4.51. Kent St. 31.66
LSU 20.89 Mississippi St. 35.61
LSU 13.17. Mississippi 7.09
LSU 7.23. TCU. 21.17
LSU 8.76. Texas A&M 18.33
LSU 6.98. UAB. 30.77
LSU Average. 11.04. Opponent Average 30.77
Posted on 7/20/14 at 11:50 am to BigLSUNut
quote:
Divide the points allowed by two things:
1. The number of yards not defended on the scoring drive. That is, if the drive starts on the opponents 30, use 30. If the drive starts on your 30, use 70.
2. The number of plays on the scoring drive
Two questions:
1) Are we using these two things in tandem for the denominator of the ratio? Or are we making two ratios?
2) What is the meaning of this ratio. Please explain in common language (i.e., the number of points allowed by ....)
quote:
Multiply everything by 100
Seems like you could just add a constant to both sides of the ratio (e.g., 1).
This post was edited on 7/20/14 at 11:55 am
Posted on 7/20/14 at 12:38 pm to TxTiger82
Example calculation
If the TD scoring drive takes 10 plays and starts on the opponent 25 yard line the rating is:
(6/(25x10))x100= 2.40
If the FG scoring drive starts on your 40 yard line and takes 4 plays the rating is:
(3/(60x4))x100= 1.25
Add all of the scoring drives for the game and you have the game rating. If these were the only two scores allowed by the defense for the game, the game rating is 2.40+1.25=3.65
I do not count extra points as they are not allowed by the regular defense
If the TD scoring drive takes 10 plays and starts on the opponent 25 yard line the rating is:
(6/(25x10))x100= 2.40
If the FG scoring drive starts on your 40 yard line and takes 4 plays the rating is:
(3/(60x4))x100= 1.25
Add all of the scoring drives for the game and you have the game rating. If these were the only two scores allowed by the defense for the game, the game rating is 2.40+1.25=3.65
I do not count extra points as they are not allowed by the regular defense
Posted on 7/20/14 at 12:44 pm to BigLSUNut
The defensive ratings from last year:
LSU 18.80. Alabama 6.07
LSU 11.36. Arkansas 88.13
LSU. 17.83. Auburn 98.42
LSU 2.20 Florida 5.53
LSU 2.68. Furman 34.46
LSU 23.96. Georgia 15.68
LSU 5.15 Iowa. 10.92
LSU 4.51. Kent St. 31.66
LSU 20.89 Mississippi St. 35.61
LSU 13.17. Mississippi 7.09
LSU 7.23. TCU. 21.17
LSU 8.76. Texas A&M 18.33
LSU 6.98. UAB. 30.77
LSU Average. 11.04. Opponent Average 30.77
The only three games where the opponent had a better rating last year were Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. Notice anything special about those games?
LSU 18.80. Alabama 6.07
LSU 11.36. Arkansas 88.13
LSU. 17.83. Auburn 98.42
LSU 2.20 Florida 5.53
LSU 2.68. Furman 34.46
LSU 23.96. Georgia 15.68
LSU 5.15 Iowa. 10.92
LSU 4.51. Kent St. 31.66
LSU 20.89 Mississippi St. 35.61
LSU 13.17. Mississippi 7.09
LSU 7.23. TCU. 21.17
LSU 8.76. Texas A&M 18.33
LSU 6.98. UAB. 30.77
LSU Average. 11.04. Opponent Average 30.77
The only three games where the opponent had a better rating last year were Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. Notice anything special about those games?
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