FINAL!! LSU 69 Miss St 65

We back, baws! After a brief hiatus from these preview threads because of negative human beings, it's time to get excited again and get this train rolling.

Saturday night, LSU takes on Mississippi State which is ranked 56th in NET, making it a solid Quad 2 game. They're 14-9 overall and 5-5 in SEC play. MSU is a team that is pretty good at home, and winless on the road. However, their road schedule has been difficult with games at UK, Ark, UF, and OM. They also got drilled in the Big 12 challenge at Texas Tech

Players To Watch

JR G Iverson Molinar 6'3 190 - Molinar has developed into one of if not the best scorer in the SEC. He's averaging 18.1ppg, 3.3rpg, 4.0apg, shooting well above 50% in SEC play. The one thing that Molinar struggles mightily with is 3-point shooting. He only averages about 2 3-point attempts per game, and although he shot it well from 3 last season, he's only shooting 29% this season.

JR C Tulo Smith 6'11 245 - Injured for much of the season, has only played 10 games. 12.4ppg, 6.2rpg. He has a bit of a propensity to foul, so that could be key. He's averaging only about 5rpg in SEC play, but he gives the Bulldogs another quality SEC big man.

SR F Garrison Brooks 6'9 230 - 5th year Senior transfer from North Carolina. Had a couple of really good seasons at UNC before the move. Averages 11.5ppg, 6.7rpg. Has the ability to hit the 3 but does not shoot it often at all. Career 62% FT shooter.

JR F DJ Jeffries 6'7 225 - Junior transfer from Memphis. 9.8ppg, 4.7rpg. Capable shooter. Good athlete, good basketball player. Won't wow you on the court in any one way, but he's a very solid player who can score double digits, although in SEC player his points per game is about 2 points lower.

Soph G Shakeel Moore 6'1 185 - Transfer from NC State. 9.7ppg, 2apg, 3rpg, 1.7spg. Half of his shots come from behind the arc. Shoots 35% from 3, really does not attack the basket very much. He's a huge weapon that LSU cannot let get hot early. He's only averaging 4.5ppg last 5 games. He seems to be struggling with some confidence and LSU needs to keep him that way.

JR F Javian Davis 6'9 240 - 4.6ppg, 2.9rpg. Another big body for Howland to play if needed. No outside shot, but will bang down low and is pretty decent at drawing fouls.

JR G Rocket Watts 6'2 185 - A transfer from Michigan State, was a top 40 player out of HS. Had a good FR season, then a pretty disastrous Soph season at MSU. Needed a change of scenery. However, he's not getting a ton of minutes this year because he is behind Molinar. He's one of the fastest players in basketball (hence the nickname), but he's not a very good shooter and typically just wants to score.

JR G/F Cameron Matthews 6'7 225 - 3.7ppg, 4.8rpg. Plays about 20 minutes a game, won't score and doesn't shoot much, but is key in defense and especially on the board. He's a player that won't stick out in many ways, but really helps MSU be the physical team they want to be.

Stats (National Rank)
Offensive

PPG: 73.0 (99th)
FG%: 47.2% (30th)
2P%: 53.6% (48th)
3P%: 32.6% (227th)
FT%: 72% (155th)
APG: 13.9 (101st)
TOPG: 12.8 (170th)
ORPG: 9.8 (67th)
OR %: 32.7% (23rd)
% of Points from 2: 57.1% (31st)
% of Points from 3: 22.7% (348th)
% of Points from FT: 20.3% (59th)
Fouls Drawn Per Game: 16.6 (206th)
Possessions Per Game: 68.4 (281st)
Offensive Efficiency: 1.067 (46th)

Defensive

PPG: 66.6 (91st)
FG%: 43.3% (164th)
2P%: 50.5% (216th)
3P%: 33.6% (187th)
% of Points from 2: 48.3% (13th)
% of Points from 3: 35.6% (300th)
DRPG: 23.7 (160th)
SPG: 8.0 (50th)
BPG: 3.6 (115th)
Turnovers Forced PG: 12.8 (182nd)
Opponent ORs PG: 6.9 (38th)
Opponent OR%: 22.5% (41st)
Defensie Efficiency: .973 (123rd)

Breakdown

Mississippi State is a solid but overall average squad. Their record and results have proven that and their stats suggest the same. Without Iverson Molinar, MSU can really struggle on offense. However, with their size and length, they're able to create extra possessions on offense to get some buckets. They play a very slow and methodical pace. They will work the ball around to find the best possible shot, which is normally Molinar just doing this thing.

Defensively, not surprisingly, because of their size it's hard to get easy buckets at the rim. The downside for MSU is their inability to stop the 3. They aren't a quick or fast team and they will pack the defense in. Very average in creating turnovers even though they do a decent job at getting steals. They do a decent job on the boards, but I'm actually a little surprised they aren't more dominate keeping teams off the offensive glass.

Prediction

LSU's strength as a team is their pace, their athleticism, their ability to wear teams down. MSU is well coached, have one of the best players in the SEC, but from a talent standpoint I don't think they can compete for 40 minutes with a HEALTHY LSU. I can see LSU really turning MSU over a lot and pushing the pace. It will be a team effort on the boards, and after TAMU killed us on the glass, I'm hoping we focus a bit more and cut that down.

No one should expect LSU at this point to stop turning it over. All I'm hoping for is we cut it down. If we can keep it around 15 (which is still a ton) LSU can score in the 80's with anyone. I think we will play free, loose, and confidently after that W in College Station.

LSU 75
MSU 66