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re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019

Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:02 am to
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
57426 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:02 am to
Florida state is a mess
Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24534 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:11 am to
quote:

Ree, I usually enjoy your posts, but this is such a bad take. UCF had no business in that conversation.


You have NO WAY of knowing that they would not have won the playoffs that year. So you don't know if they had business being in the conversation or not.

In reality the playoff system is not much better at naming a fake national champion than the BCS was.

UCF probably played a tougher schedule in 2017 than Clemson did in 2018. Clemson is the fake NC for 2018.

Posted by BornAndRaised_LA
Springfield, VA
Member since Oct 2018
5227 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:32 am to
They played #25 Memphis twice and #21 USF. They literally had to get up to play one top ten team all year (in a bowl game), which they won by one score against the only Power 5 school they played all year.

Clemson in 2018 had a much harder schedule: #16 UNC, #17 BC, plus 9 other P5 including 2 SEC. finished by adding Notre Dame at #3 and Bama at #1...none of these ranked teams stayed within 20, and most were much worse.

Really?!?
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 11:40 am
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:51 am to
remind me, how many 5* OL did clemson start last year?
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:53 am to
thanks but that doesn't answer my question. I didn't say anything about going 12-0, although I won't rule it out. LSU went 13-0 just in the past 10 years, and that included playing #2, #3, and #5 and two conference champions.

Posted by YouAre8Up
in a house
Member since Mar 2011
12792 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Can someone explain why LSU fans should be happy about losing 2 games this year?


#10WinUniversity
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:54 am to
quote:

Well, you may have noticed some of our annual opponents also on this list ...


how many of our annual opponents have 16 returning starters? the same OC and DC as last year? a 5th year senior QB?
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 11:57 am to
quote:

I would be interested to see Clemson's "blue chip ratio" when they won their first title.


LINK

quote:

The 13 teams to reach the blue-chip threshold this year are Alabama, USC, Ohio State, LSU, Notre Dame, Florida State, Michigan, Auburn, UCLA, Texas A&M, Georgia, Clemson, and Texas.

This list includes schools that have won 12 of the last 14 national championships (Florida won the other two and met the mark at the time; it’s at 39 percent for 2016 after a recent coaching change). It also includes eight other national title game appearances in that span.
Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24534 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:12 pm to
quote:

They played #25 Memphis twice and #21 USF


And besides the two games in the playoffs how many ranked teams did Clemson play in 2018?

quote:

They literally had to get up to play one top ten team all year (in a bowl game), which they won by one score


Clemson literally had to get up for TWO top-10 teams all season. Both were in the playoffs.

quote:

play one top ten team all year (in a bowl game), which they won by one score against the only Power 5 school they played all year.


Maryland is a P-5 team that came to Texas and beat the Great Tom Herman by 10 points. UCF went to Maryland and beat them 38-10.

quote:

They played #25 Memphis twice


Memphis went to Los Angeles and beat UCLA.

quote:

and #21 USF


USF beat P-5 schools Illinois and TX Tech and their "40 year-old MAN" that season.

quote:

Clemson in 2018 had a much harder schedule: #16 UNC, #17 BC


Those teams weren't even receiving any votes or not enough to be listed in the "receiving votes" category on any rankings at seasons end. BC finished 7-5 and the bowl was cancelled. UNST finished 9-4 after their 52-13 loss to A&M in their bowl game.


I'm not saying Clemson was not a good team in 2018. But, I am saying they did nothing during the 2018 regular season or maybe even less than UCF did during the 2017 regular season.

Clemson plays an even shittier schedule this year. They play A&M at home and that's it. The rest are against the ACC schools that should be kicked out of the P-5 for football and teams like Charlotte and Wofford. Hell, UCF plays Stanford and Pittsburgh in back-to-back weeks this year.
Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24534 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

how many of our annual opponents have 16 returning starters? the same OC and DC as last year? a 5th year senior QB?


So you were asking why people should be happy about something that hasn't even happened yet?

Posted by BornAndRaised_LA
Springfield, VA
Member since Oct 2018
5227 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 1:05 pm to
Ree, you are clearly grasping. Stop comparing 2017 UCF to 2018 Clemson. It’s a bad argument and you know it.

That year:
Maryland: 4-8 (2-7)
UCLA: 6-7 (4-5)
Those teams were abjectly terrible that year.

Memphis’ best win was a 3 pt victory over Navy. They were propped up by the same weak schedule as UCF.

There is no real case that the two are comparable.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 2:54 pm
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 1:10 pm to
quote:

So you were asking why people should be happy about something that hasn't even happened yet?


I believe you have misnderstood the context. I said, "Can someone explain why LSU fans should be happy about losing 2 games this year?" His response was "Well, you may have noticed some of our annual opponents also on this list ... "


I see Alabama on the list. They are very talented, but also replace their OC, and DC, and return 12 starters. I see Texas on the list. They are also very talented, but are dead last in the entire Big 12, with 8 returning starters. Thats half of LSUs 16 returning starters. I see Auburn on that list. Auburn is breaking in a new QB, and a new OC, Kenny Dillingham, although he is actually a Co-OC with Kodi Burns. And finally I see Florida on the list, who has probably had the worst offseason of any power 5 program. Oh and its their first time coming to LSU since 2016, and LSU made it a point to make them feel extra welcome, by scheduling homecoming for that weekend.


So tell me, where do you see two losses on this schedule??
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 1:11 pm to
if he wants, he can order a UCF national champion ring. They were recognized by the NCAA as national champions.

Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24534 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

Ree, you are grasping and you know it. Stop comparing 2017 UCF to 2018 Clemson. It’s a bad argument and you know it.


Okay, first off this has turned into a Clemson vs UCF. That was not my attention. Clemson is a good team. Are they good enough to go undefeated through the SEC? I don't think so. I don't think they could go through the B12 or B10 undefeated. They are in a shite P5 conference that should stick to basketball and baseball.


But anyway, you then said this in response to UCF not being "chosen" for the playoffs when maybe they should have:
"Ree, I usually enjoy your posts, but this is such a bad take. UCF had no business in that conversation."

So forget about Clemson 2018 and my belief that Clemson only made it because they played maybe one ranked team the whole season.

What about Clemson who scored 6 total points in the 2017 playoffs while losing to Alabama? Could UCF, a team that averaged just over 48 points a game have scored more than 6 points? UCF beat the team that beat national champion Alabama 26-14 that same year by a score of 34-27. Yes, Auburn gave up more points to UCF than Bama. I think UCF could have scored more points than Clemson in the 2017 playoffs.

What about Oklahoma who lost to Iowa State at home that year? The Oklahoma team that lost to Georgia by 6 in the playoffs? Again, UCF just happened to beat the team that Georgia had lost to earlier in the season. Would UCF have scored more points than OU against Georgia?

What about Georgia who had also lost to Auburn that season 17-40 before getting a rematch? Again UCF beat Auburn on their first try. Something BOTH Bama and Georgia could not do.

So all four of the teams in the playoffs in 2017 had a loss. Two of the playoff teams including the one that won the national championship had lost to Auburn. The other two lost to these teams who had lost to Auburn. UCF beat that same Auburn.

A case can be made that UCF deserved the chance to go head-to-head with the teams that lost to a team they beat.

The "choosers" just knew that Auburn, after beating Bama AND Georgia would wipe the floor with UCF. This would keep the braindead public thinking their system actually works. Didn't quite work out that way though did it?


Every team in the playoffs in 2017 had either lost to Auburn or a team Auburn beat. The only undefeated team in the top 25 that year beat Auburn. THEY DESERVED TO BE IN THE CONVERSATION.





This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 3:43 pm
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

The "choosers" just knew that Auburn, after beating Bama AND Georgia would wipe the floor with UCF.


The Peach Bowl selects who plays in the Peach Bowl. The College Football Playoff Committee selects who plays in the playoffs.

You managed to use the transitive property in a way I have never seen used before. It's impressive.

LINK

This is an archived post of the Massey Composite rankings. In this post, you can see 119 different rankings, aggregated together. There is no bias here. It is a collection of algorithms. UCF was ranked 9th. It's not even like UCF was 5th or 6th. They were 9th according to the computers, a full 3 spots higher than the committee.

UCF was in the conversation. It was just a very short conversation.

"Hey what about UCF?"

"Oh that team that went unbeaten after going 0-12 just a few years ago?"

"YEAH, THEM!"

"Don't they play in the American Conference with Tulane and UConn?"

"::crickets::"
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 5:09 pm
Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24534 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:01 pm to
quote:

"Hey what about UCF?"

"Oh that team that went unbeaten after going 0-12 just a few years ago?"

"YEAH, THEM!"

"Don't they play in the American Conference with Tulane and UConn


Not a lot different than what I said in my first post in this thread.

This is why the shite system will stay a shite system and the "under 50 hasn't won a championship" mantra will remain intact.

How did the computers, Massey, the algorithms and the "choosers" miss the fact that EVERY team in the playoffs, including the national champion, would lose to Auburn or a team that lost to Auburn - Who Lost to UCF.

Sounds like the system is not too "sound" to me. Team A beats Team B on the same day as the college football playoffs. Team C and Team D play for the national championship. Team B had beaten both of those teams and lost to Team A. But Team A does not get to play in the playoffs.

If you build an org chart for the six teams mentioned above, UCF would be in the box at the very top. Everyone else would not only be below UCF but below Auburn.

Clemson and OU would be at the very bottom. At the very least UCF should have replaced one of those teams. I don't care what the computers or 24/7 say.
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 6:13 pm
Posted by VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:14 pm to
LSU beat Georgia who beat Florida who beat LSU.

LINK

In 2015:

Oklahoma lost to Texas, which lost to Iowa State, which lost to Toledo; therefore Toledo is better than Big 12 champ Oklahoma.

Michigan State lost to Nebraska, which lost to Purdue, which lost to Bowling Green, which lost to Toledo; therefore Toledo is better than Big 10 Champ Michigan State.

Alabama lost to Ole Miss, which lost to Arkansas, which lost to Toledo; therefore Toledo is better than SEC champion and national champion Alabama.

Why wasn’t Toledo in the 2015 CFP discussion??
This post was edited on 8/14/19 at 6:16 pm
Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24534 posts
Posted on 8/14/19 at 6:32 pm to
quote:

Iowa State, which lost to Toledo


Did Massey, computers and algorithms tell you that was going to happen for a fact. They kept UCF out of the playoffs so they must know what they are doing right. And I'm sure 24/7 had Toledo with more talent than Iowa St.
quote:


Purdue, which lost to Bowling Green, which lost to Toledo


Did Massey and the algorithms get those right?




quote:

Why wasn’t Toledo in the 2015 CFP discussion??

Unlike UCF, and as big as their ONE win over a juggernaut P5 Iowa State program was, they did not go undefeated and they did not win their conference. They finished 3rd in the West and 4th overall in the MAC. But 10-2 and a bowl win is nothing to sneeze at for Toledo.



Look I realize there is a lot of transitive property or whatever being thrown around in my posts.

The point is the computers, Massey and 24/7 recruiting rankings don't step onto the football field and play football.

UCF should not only have been in the discussion they should have been in the playoffs.

Nobody knows what would have happened if they had made it. NOBODY.
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