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1999
Miss. Valley St. Fan
Where I be
Member since Oct 2009
21215 posts

Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Percentage of 4 & 5 star players on a team compared to 2 & 3 stars. FYI for the "Stars don't matter" crowd, no team below 50% has ever won a modern MNC. All of this comes from his website's newsletter (SB nation college football section has rebranded itself as Banner Society).

Ohio State 81%
Alabama 80%
Georgia 79%
LSU 64%
Florida State 61%
Clemson 60%
Southern Cal 60%
Penn State 60%
Michigan 60%
Texas 60%
Oklahoma 60%
Auburn 58%
Washington 54%
Notre Dame 54%
Florida 53%
Miami 51%


TheDeathValley
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Sep 2010
9559 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

no team below 50% has ever won a modern MNC


Makes sense. If 1 or 2 4/5* flame out you have another who won't.


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110
ccomeaux
LSU Fan
LA
Member since Jan 2010
5287 posts
 Online 

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Makes Dabo best coach in NCAA with Riley on his tail


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110
wilceaux
LSU Fan
Austin, TX
Member since Apr 2004
10668 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
What rating system was used?
This post was edited on 8/13 at 3:33 pm


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crewdepoo
New Orleans Saints Fan
Hogwarts
Member since Jan 2015
4454 posts
 Online 

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Think we are due then. I’d assume we’ve been top 5 in that category for a while


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21
jyoung1
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since May 2010
1297 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Really puts that "gap" into number form.


nitwit
Member since Oct 2007
7871 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Clemson and even Okla. suggest the "gap" is not as important and outcome determinative as many suggest.


Jim Rockford
LSU Fan
Member since May 2011
70902 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

Clemson and even Okla. suggest the "gap" is not as important and outcome determinative as many suggest.


Florida State too.


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BornAndRaised_LA
LSU Fan
D.C.
Member since Oct 2018
1102 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
Would like to see it weighted for 5* only. There would be a huge gap between the haves and have-nots


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10
EasterEgg
LSU Fan
New Orleans Metro
Member since Sep 2018
1342 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
The gap between 80% and 65% is the difference in signing 5 3- stars versus 9 3-stars. Those 4 guys over 4 classes is an extra 16 4-stars. That's a heck of a lot of depth, something this board seems to complain about often.


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clamdip
LSU Fan
Rocky Mountain High
Member since Sep 2004
13589 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

The gap between 80% and 65% is the difference in signing 5 3- stars versus 9 3-stars. Those 4 guys over 4 classes is an extra 16 4-stars. That's a heck of a lot of depth, something this board seems to complain about often.
See Clem's Son.


EasterEgg
LSU Fan
New Orleans Metro
Member since Sep 2018
1342 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

See Clem's Son.

They're a special case. Their formula of concentrating their blue chips at the LOS and behind center certainly seems to be working. Go figure...


1999
Miss. Valley St. Fan
Where I be
Member since Oct 2009
21215 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
no doubt. dabo and company have done a helluva job there. that dude doesn't get enough credit.


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10
LMfan
SEC Champs Kiss the Rings
Member since Aug 2014
3354 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

They're a special case. Their formula of concentrating their blue chips at the LOS and behind center certainly seems to be working. Go figure...


Bigger thing that makes them an outlier is they have almost no attrition compared to the other big programs. Until this year, they have been signing smaller classes, but their hit rate is higher than average.

Dabo knows what kind of kids are a fit for his program and when they get them they almost never lose them to transfer or dismissal.

Anyway, this is always great data from Bud. The disparity at the top is glaring though. Three teams at 80%, when there are rarely more than one team over 70.


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Tiger Ree
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
17967 posts
 Online 

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

for the "Stars don't matter" crowd, no team below 50% has ever won a modern MNC


Of course not. It probably won't happen in the age of "chosen MNC".

In 2017 UFC finished 13-0 and #6 in the final poll. Every team ranked ahead of them but one had two losses. The MNC that year had one loss.

UFC was the only team besides the one-loss MNC to receive #1 votes (4). But they weren't "chosen" to actually have the chance to play for then MNC.

So yeah, when a certain group gets to choose who gets to play, an under 50 NOT WINNING will probably stand for a long time.

I would be interested to see Clemson's "blue chip ratio" when they won their first title. They had great recruiting for years but the "choosers" never gave them credit.

It's funny, this year recruits are getting the "Clempson BUMP" just like Bama gets their bump for every player that commits.

The recruiting services were like "HOLY shite guys, we can't keep ranking Clempson's classes between 9 and 16 in recruiting and having them kick the crap out of the team we rank #1 every year. I's making us look bad. As of right now Clempson gets their own bump."

Clemson's 24/7 class rankings:
2012 20th
2013 15th
2014 16th
2015 9th
2016 11th
2017 16th
2018 7th
2019 10th

Clemson won titles for the 2016 and 2018 seasons.


VoodooDoctor
Member since Aug 2019
79 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
2/3 of the roster is 4 star or 5 star.

Can someone explain why LSU fans should be happy about losing 2 games this year?


LMfan
SEC Champs Kiss the Rings
Member since Aug 2014
3354 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

\Can someone explain why LSU fans should be happy about losing 2 games this year?


Well, you may have noticed some of our annual opponents also on this list ...



Tiger Ree
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
17967 posts
 Online 

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
It doesn't matter if it were 100% 5-stars. When you have three returners on offense who had ever started before you aren't guaranteed to win every game.

When you have A first time starting QB, two true freshmen starting WR's and a different offensive line lineup in the first 7 games you aren't guaranteed to win every game.

When you are running a 3-4 defense and don't have a true 3-4 nose tackle you aren't guaranteed to win every game.

When one of your starting DE's in a 3-4 only plays in 8 games and misses the final four of the regular season you aren't guaranteed to win every game.

This could go on and on.

But even if every player was an experienced 5-star player who stayed healthy and played every snap of every game you aren't guaranteed to win every game.


1999
Miss. Valley St. Fan
Where I be
Member since Oct 2009
21215 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
jimbo will have aTm on that list soon also. and if pruitt hits i would imagine UT are there.
This post was edited on 8/14 at 10:58 am


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BornAndRaised_LA
LSU Fan
D.C.
Member since Oct 2018
1102 posts

re: Bud Elliott Blue Chip Ratio 2019
quote:

UFC was the only team besides the one-loss MNC to receive #1 votes (4). But they weren't "chosen" to actually have the chance to play for then MNC.


Ree, I usually enjoy your posts, but this is such a bad take. UCF had no business in that conversation.


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