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Started By
Message
BR More money placed on the Bulldogs to cover the spread
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:27 am
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:27 am
On 104.5, they noted the spread has dropped a bit, more money being placed on the Bulldogs to cover than the Tigers. I expected Vegas to open around 21, but it opened much lower, what does Vegas know? They obviously didn’t know much about the SC game with Ga.
I’m optimistically cautious, old enough to remember some heartbreaks in Starkville with John Bond. Tigers should cover, but some key turnovers or dropped passes in a wet game played away in the SEC could make this closer than expected.
I’m optimistically cautious, old enough to remember some heartbreaks in Starkville with John Bond. Tigers should cover, but some key turnovers or dropped passes in a wet game played away in the SEC could make this closer than expected.
This post was edited on 10/18/19 at 7:33 am
13
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:29 am to TrueTigerTale
quote:
wet game
quote:
Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. North northeast wind around 5 mph.
Forecast has improved as the week has gone on.
And I don't know if you missed it over the last two games, but the run game is becoming a bigger factor even it if were to be a wet game.
This post was edited on 10/18/19 at 7:31 am
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:30 am to TrueTigerTale
Wet game? It is only a 10-20% chance of rain. We cover by halftime.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:31 am to TrueTigerTale
They’re playing at State and our defense has given up points against worse offenses.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:32 am to TrueTigerTale
quote:
what does Vegas know?
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:32 am to TrueTigerTale
I think Vegas is STILL struggling with valuing our offense. I suppose they’re also thinking a road game against a middle-of-the-road SEC team, after a physical win again Florida spells letdown game.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:34 am to Sev09
quote:
I think Vegas is STILL struggling with valuing our offense. I suppose they’re also thinking a road game against a middle-of-the-road SEC team, after a physical win again Florida spells letdown game.
Yeah, it is a classic sandwich/trap game between UF and Auburn.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:35 am to TrueTigerTale
quote:
I expected Vegas to open around 21, but it opened much lower, what does Vegas know? They obviously didn’t know much about the SC game with Ga
This statement sounds like someone who doesn’t understand how lines are made and with what strategic purpose.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:36 am to TrueTigerTale
quote:
more money being placed on the Bulldogs to cover than the Tigers.
Everything I have found says the betting is heavy on LSU... Anyone have any "Public Money" charts that say otherwise??
quote:
Spread: LSU: -19.5 (-105) | MSST: +19.5 (-115)
Total: 61.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: LSU: 82% | MSST: 18%
LINK
This post was edited on 10/18/19 at 7:37 am
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:36 am to TrueTigerTale
All of these things would lead someone to take MSU +18:
LSU just won an big/emotional game, and now they have to travel to Starkville to play a subpar opponent.
LSU will likely take a lot of starters out of the game if they get a commanding lead to rest them for next week.
Next week the Tigers play a Top 10 Opponent. This is a classic sandwich game: beat big opponent | play shitty opponent | play another big opponent
All of that being said, I bet on LSU to cover the opening spread of -19 and I bet it again at -17. I am banking on Coach O having our boys focused and Ensminger/Brady keeping their foot on the gas on offense. MSU can't score with us. As long as the defense makes some stops this game should get ugly.
Tigers win 51-17
LSU just won an big/emotional game, and now they have to travel to Starkville to play a subpar opponent.
LSU will likely take a lot of starters out of the game if they get a commanding lead to rest them for next week.
Next week the Tigers play a Top 10 Opponent. This is a classic sandwich game: beat big opponent | play shitty opponent | play another big opponent
All of that being said, I bet on LSU to cover the opening spread of -19 and I bet it again at -17. I am banking on Coach O having our boys focused and Ensminger/Brady keeping their foot on the gas on offense. MSU can't score with us. As long as the defense makes some stops this game should get ugly.
Tigers win 51-17
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:42 am to Jp1LSU
Vegas doesn’t know how to value Ga, I can tell you that.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:46 am to Buckeye Jeaux
LSU
ATS -17.5:
72%
3:30 PM ET
O/U: 62 MSST +17.5
MSST
ATS +17.5:
28%
ATS -17.5:
72%
3:30 PM ET
O/U: 62 MSST +17.5
MSST
ATS +17.5:
28%
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:49 am to TrueTigerTale
Rain won't slow us down at all.
Strong wind or a muddy field could but I don't see either of those being a problem Saturday.
Strong wind or a muddy field could but I don't see either of those being a problem Saturday.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:51 am to TrueTigerTale
quote:
what does Vegas know? They obviously didn’t know much about the SC game with Ga.
yeah Vegas doesn’t know much because 1 game a large underdog won. The spread isn’t meant to be a prediction per se but we could pull up a hell of a lot games that were right on the number. Btw Vegas probably cleaned up onUGA-SC
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:51 am to TrueTigerTale
Spreads are made to predict human behavior not the outcome of the game. A good line attracts equal betting on both sides of the line. Vegas doesn’t care if LSU is good or not, it cares about whether or not people will bet for them or against them. Vegas doesn’t care who wins, they want equal amounts of action and they get very nervous when the public is all betting one side or the other because it increases their exposure.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:53 am to TrueTigerTale
quote:
more money being placed on the Bulldogs
They call it Starkvegas for a reason.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 8:15 am to EasterEgg
quote:
more money being placed on the Bulldogs
quote:
They call it Starkvegas for a reason.
Except that 80%+ of the money is being placed on LSU... And the spread is NOT being jacked up to 25 or 30 points to encourage bets on Miss St.
And Alabama is -35 points over Tennessee & and the Vols beat Miss St last week.
Hmmm
Posted on 10/18/19 at 8:24 am to Jp1LSU
quote:
Spreads are made to predict human behavior not the outcome of the game.
No, lines are originated using complex algorithms based on hard data. There may be a little public perception baked in, but that might be a field goal at most.
quote:
A good line attracts equal betting on both sides of the line. Vegas doesn’t care who wins, they want equal amounts of action and they get very nervous when the public is all betting one side or the other because it increases their exposure.
It might be nice for books to make all their money risk-free, but for most games that's a pipe dream. You have to remember that the way most books manage action is by moving the number. Well, anytime the number is moved the book is also exposed to people middling them- for example, someone bets State at +19 and LSU at -17, then the game lands LSU by 18.
quote:
Vegas doesn’t care if LSU is good or not, it cares about whether or not people will bet for them or against them.
They absolutely care how good LSU is. Their business depends on it. Even if books could make all their money by getting equal action on every game at the same number (LOL), would that even be the best option to maximize profits? Probably not. Think of it like investing in the stock market as opposed to keeping money in a savings account. Taking smart risks is where the money is really made.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 8:42 am to TrueTigerTale
Vegas is hoping suckers take Miss St, us gamblers call it a "Sucker Bet". Take LSU, it's a 20% chance of rain, I like us covering 17.5.Vegas like to mess with gamblers head.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 8:55 am to Kool Kaliper
It all depends on the defense, we already know we are good for 4-5 TD's, now if the D holds them to FG's (like they did w Utah St) we are golden.
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