A look ahead into Michigan on Monday

Thought I would give a little breakdown of what we'll see on Monday in Maui against Michigan. This is a really big game for us and could put us on the map if we pulled a W out.

So far this year Michigan is 3-0:
vs. N. Florida = 86-66 Win
vs. C. Michigan = 72-65 Win
vs. Southern Miss = 61-47 Win

The first thing you'll notice is they haven't really dominated any of their 3 overmatched opponents. Michigan is also not an up-tempo team.

Even beating N. Florida (15-19 last year) by 20 they did not put that team away until late in the 2nd half. It was a 2 point game at halftime and they didnt get up by 10+ until under 7 minutes to play, but did dominate the final 6 minutes of the game. N. Florida is not a very good team, they are 0-4 and got destroyed by Florida (by 40), Michigan State (By 32) and lost by 10 to VCU (really rough schedule).

Central Michigan (16-16 last year) is also not very good, but their only other game came against a non division 1 opponent so far. They were only down by 1 at halftime to Michigan and even took a 1 point lead on Michigan with 12:45 to go in the game. Michigan put this game away with free throws at the end.

Southern Miss (9-22) another not so great team, has only also only played a non-division 1 team outside of Michigan (and only won that game by 10). In typical fashion, Michigan struggled the 1st half of this game and USM actually had a lead 33-32 at halftime (notice a trend here?)...Southern Miss even still had a lead at the 14 minute mark in the 2nd half before Michigan finally woke up, and did take over. By the 7 minute left mark in the game Michigan finally had a 10+ point lead on USM and never looked back from there.


So Michigan is a slow starting team this year, where they have done MUCH better in the 2nd half. They returned only 2 of their 5 starters from last season. 4 of their 5 starters are in double figures scoring this season and they play those 4 starters a lot (3 of them over 31 minutes a game). They are not an especially deep team. As a team Michigan is shooting 46% (138th in country) and 33% from 3 (202nd in country). Considering their overmatched opponents, this isn't particularly good.

Their starting lineup consists of:

C - (6'10, 210) JR. Moritz Wagner
Returning starter from last year, the slightly built center is a rebounding machine with 10 boards a game in only 28 minutes a game this season. He doesnt just live around the bucket as he shoots about 3-4 3's per game and is averaging about 13 points a game. His PER through 3 games is 19.5, which is good. This will be a tough matchup for Reath having to guard a guy inside and out.

PF - (6'8, 190) SR. Duncan Robinson
I hesitate to call him their 4 man (he's basically a tall guard), but he's the definition of a stretch 4. He shoots the 3, bottom line. And is shooting 44% from 3. He is averaging 14 points and 4 boards a game while taking 8 3's a game to only 3 2 point shots. He has a 19.2 PER through 3 games which is good. Expect Epps to play some 4 this game, but don't be surprised to see Rachal get put on him to try and aggravate him from distance. This is the guy you DO NOT leave open.

SF - (6'6, 189) JR. Charles Matthews
Matthews is their tall guard at the 3 spot. He is averaging 13 points, 3 boards and 2 assists a game and shoots about 8 2's to 4 3's a game. He has struggled from 3 only hitting 25% of those 12 3 point attempts thus far. His PER on the season is 17.4 which is above average. Sampson will be the main guy on him. Matthews sat out last season after transferring from Kentucky. He was pretty highly rated out of high school.

SG - (6'4, 175) SR. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman
Ali is their triggerman at the 2 spot and is averaging 12 points, 4 boards and 3 assists per game. He takes 5 2's to 6 3's per game and is shooting a mediocre 33% from 3 on his 18 3's this season. He shot 38% from 3 last season, so he can drain some 3's. Ali has a 16.4 PER on the season which is about average. Mays will be the primary man on him most of the night.

PG - (6'0, 185) JR. Xavier Simpson
Here's the "True" PG if there is one in that he isn't really a scorer. He also plays the least of their starters at just 22 minutes a game. He does average 4.3 assists, but only 5 points per game as well. He just isn't a trigger puller much when it comes to scoring. He has a 21.3 PER on the season which is really good, so even though he's not a scorer, he's a good all around player. Waters will be the primary guy on him Monday night.

Michigan bench
(6'1, 175) SR. Jaaron Simmons, backup PG to Xavier Simpson and plays the most off the bench at 14 minutes per game. He has struggled this year with a 9.9 PER.

(7'1, 245) SO. Jon Teske, The huge center only plays about 11 minutes per game but makes the most of it. 5 points, 5 boards and a block per 11 minutes with a PER of 42.1 which is incredible. He will be a matchup problem for us, only Reath has any ability to really guard this guy. Combs will struggle with the height difference and Epps could get pushed around.

(6'5, 190) SO. Watson and (6'7, 230) FR. Livers have been playing about 8 minutes a game off the bench. Watson has given some quality minutes as opposed to Livers who has struggled a bit.

(6'0, 170) FR. Brooks only plays about 6 minutes a contest and has struggled mightily.


So Michigan is maybe not quite as good as some were thinking. They are not especially deep whatsoever at the big spot so getting either Wagner or Robinson in foul trouble could be a lot of heartache for Michigan. I think this is a game we should honestly win if we play to our capability, we definitely cannot fall into Michigan's slow it down trap or leave their guys open to shoot 3's because they will fire them up there (they take 27 3's per game). Michigan has a veteran starting group so that may be our toughest thing to overcome with our bunch who hasn't played together much yet. They will fire up a LOT of 3's, this is a John Beilein team. We must guard the perimeter. Wade probably sees this as a nightmare matchup for us after what Samford did to us from 3.