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re: 42% chance for an LSU win at A&M?

Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:20 pm to
Posted by sunnydaze
Member since Jan 2010
29933 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:20 pm to
LSU without 2 of top 3 CBs
Posted by Mahootney
Lovin' My German Footprint
Member since Sep 2008
11872 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:21 pm to
Another made up ESPN trick to keep them interesting. Like qbr.
Posted by LouisianaLonghorn
Austin, Texas
Member since Jan 2006
14155 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:23 pm to
quote:

A&M game is going to be tough. LSU has struggled on the road.


LSU's offense has struggled even against bad teams. I wouldn't be surprised if we lose to A&M.
Posted by Tiger1988
Houston
Member since May 2016
24222 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:25 pm to
They will lose.
#2 rush defense
Excellent at pass rush

And LSU didn’t cover at home against rice
Posted by MOT
Member since Jul 2006
27765 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

Ok, 3 pts to A&M for home field. Still do not see how LSU is under 50%

A&M will open as a small favorite tomorrow fwiw.
Posted by Goldrush25
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
33793 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:27 pm to
quote:

This is true. It's really not a good algorithm




I think some people just don't have a fundamental understanding of statistics.

A coin flip has a 50% probability of landing on heads.
Say for instance you flip a coin 10 times and you get 8 heads. Does that mean that the 50% probability of getting either heads or tails was false? No, it just means that over a small sample size the results skewed a certain way. Flip it 10,000 times and the results will almost certainly regress much closer to 50/50 heads/tails.

According to a lot of metrics (total offense for one) LSU should not have won as much as they have this year. You look at the teams with similar offenses and all of them have performed much worse than LSU. Doesn't mean that people that study these things for a living don't know what they're talking about. It just means that LSU has defied the odds.
This post was edited on 11/17/18 at 9:28 pm
Posted by touchdownjeebus
Member since Sep 2010
24832 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:28 pm to
quote:

They have 12 men


I am pretty open minded and people can live how they want, but that’s gross.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:30 pm to
LSU will be pick em at worst.
Posted by LouisianaLonghorn
Austin, Texas
Member since Jan 2006
14155 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:31 pm to
quote:

LSU without 2 of top 3 CBs


Who else will be missing besides Fulton?
Posted by rattlebucket
SELA
Member since Feb 2009
11414 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 9:36 pm to
Quit paying attention to that. ESPiN fpi nerds were about to take hits off the cars tailpipe when citadel/bama was 10-10 at half. Its been proven all year their formula is garbage.

We will struggle at aTm but win. 28-23 LSU
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26607 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 11:30 pm to
quote:

Ok, 3 pts to A&M for home field. Still do not see how LSU is under 50%


For one, it has been manufactured to be LSU's rivalry week game.

Second of all, TAMU is on the level of Auburn, where we struggled.

Third of all, when we've played away this year, we've been way worse, not just a little bit.

LSU 22 Auburn 21
LSU 19 UF 27
LSU 24 Arkansas 17

Fouth of all TAMU has the best rush defense by far that anybody outside of playing Michigan St, has played.

This game is likely a close 3 point win.
Posted by LSUGrad9295
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
33436 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

We’ve been given no credit the whole year


Yes. The computer that generated the 42% thing clearly hates LSU.
Posted by Goldrush25
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
33793 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 11:37 pm to
quote:

Quit paying attention to that. ESPiN fpi nerds were about to take hits off the cars tailpipe when citadel/bama was 10-10 at half. Its been proven all year their formula is garbage.

We will struggle at aTm but win. 28-23 LSU


How do you say how wrong their formula is but admit that we'll struggle?

That's essentially what the ESPN FPI is saying as well.
Posted by rattlebucket
SELA
Member since Feb 2009
11414 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 11:39 pm to
quote:

Datbayoubengal


Nailed it
Posted by rattlebucket
SELA
Member since Feb 2009
11414 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 11:43 pm to
Just disagree in general with the fpi. What was the fpi vs Georgia? Miami? They had bama 99.9% then at half it was 10-10 today. ESPiN is hot garbage.

We will struggle ve aTm and might lose
Posted by Duzz
Houston
Member since Feb 2008
9964 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 11:45 pm to
they said the same thing for LSu when texas ATM had Johnny Football too. Even when we were playing Poorly we kick ATM arse.

Our string of victory of them is like Alabama string of victory over us. Don't matter what happen, Alabama will defeat LSU as surely as LSU defeat Texas ATM.

If we do not do it, I expect O to be fired. The ATM victory is all LSU have going left for them.
Posted by Katy Tiger
Houston area
Member since Sep 2004
8032 posts
Posted on 11/17/18 at 11:46 pm to
ATM’s yell leaders are so gay its incredible.
Posted by WestSideTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
3517 posts
Posted on 11/18/18 at 12:05 am to
Anybody who thinks LSU has better than a 50/50 chance to win this game can only back that confidence up with intangibles. The fact that the game is in CS and the unknown Jimbo factor even cancels those out so that’s where we are.
Posted by Greace
Member since May 2009
4696 posts
Posted on 11/18/18 at 12:18 am to
quote:

They had bama 99.9% then at half it was 10-10 today. ESPiN is hot garbage.


Pretty sure FPI isn't suppose to predict halftime scores. It predicts the final score and Bama won by 33
Posted by Dlab2013
Pineville, Luzianna
Member since Jun 2013
9219 posts
Posted on 11/18/18 at 12:24 am to
quote:


A&M game is going to be tough. LSU has struggled on the road.



LSU has lost 1 road game all year..........
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