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Started By
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3 sec teams in the playoffs a big possibility this year.
Posted on 11/15/22 at 11:09 pm
Posted on 11/15/22 at 11:09 pm
Tcu loss, Ohio state or Michigan loss, Tennessee wins out, LSU wins out and beats GA in the SEC championship game. This puts the loser of Ohio state Michigan at 5 and TCU out of the top 5.
13
Posted on 11/15/22 at 11:24 pm to stopitnow1
No way they put three in.
Posted on 11/15/22 at 11:28 pm to stopitnow1
There’s zero chance. Imagine the outrage.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 12:08 am to stopitnow1
USC would need a loss too.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 4:18 am to Sev09
If Ohio State or Michigan blows the other one out and TCU loses there will be 3 SEC teams in the playoffs if we end up winning the SEC championship game an only have two losses. Book it. Highly unlikely that all falls into place but if those things happen book it
Posted on 11/16/22 at 4:21 am to BeastTigers10
quote:Yep. But that will happen. After Saturday though, I'm not sure TCU loses a B12 game.
USC would need a loss too.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 4:26 am to stopitnow1
Wouldn’t call it a ‘big’ possibility for sure. A remote possibility yes. But LSU is likely to lose to UGA which throws out the theory pretty early.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 4:32 am to stopitnow1
I lean toward this probably not happening, but all of the people who keep insisting "it'll never happen", need to stop speaking in absolutes. How many times have we heard something was never going to happen, and then it did?
I don't think the committee wants to deal with the whining about them "colluding" with the SEC, or whatever other usual junk that people say about the SEC and supposed special treatment. But if they truly believe that there are 3 SEC teams that deserve to be in, who's to say what they'll actually do? Maybe they don't care about perception as much as we think they do. They've never had a situation like the one being discussed in this thread before.
One thing I feel certain of, and I know it doesn't make any of us happy, is that LSU would not jump a 1 loss Tennessee. Because they beat us head to head; because it was so lopsided; and because Tennessee would have one less loss than us, I don't believe winning the SEC is going to put LSU past them. We can jump a 1 loss TCU, and perhaps a 1 loss Michigan/OSU (doubtful if it's OSU), but I don't see it with Tennessee.
I already felt this way all along, and then Matt Moscona said something that I had forgotten all about, which was that Penn State was left out of the playoff one year, as a 2 loss Big Ten champ, in favor of a 1 loss Ohio State, who's only loss was to Penn State.
Now consider that scenario, except that we actually lost to Tennessee, and I don't think the SEC champ bump is going to put us over them, regardless of how it offends our collective sense of justice. I think for our mental state it would be better to focus on passing other teams.
I don't think the committee wants to deal with the whining about them "colluding" with the SEC, or whatever other usual junk that people say about the SEC and supposed special treatment. But if they truly believe that there are 3 SEC teams that deserve to be in, who's to say what they'll actually do? Maybe they don't care about perception as much as we think they do. They've never had a situation like the one being discussed in this thread before.
One thing I feel certain of, and I know it doesn't make any of us happy, is that LSU would not jump a 1 loss Tennessee. Because they beat us head to head; because it was so lopsided; and because Tennessee would have one less loss than us, I don't believe winning the SEC is going to put LSU past them. We can jump a 1 loss TCU, and perhaps a 1 loss Michigan/OSU (doubtful if it's OSU), but I don't see it with Tennessee.
I already felt this way all along, and then Matt Moscona said something that I had forgotten all about, which was that Penn State was left out of the playoff one year, as a 2 loss Big Ten champ, in favor of a 1 loss Ohio State, who's only loss was to Penn State.
Now consider that scenario, except that we actually lost to Tennessee, and I don't think the SEC champ bump is going to put us over them, regardless of how it offends our collective sense of justice. I think for our mental state it would be better to focus on passing other teams.
This post was edited on 11/16/22 at 4:47 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:08 am to Metaloctopus
quote:Let's break it down.
I lean toward this probably not happening
1) OSU-UofM loser drops behind LSU (probable)
2) TCU loses (probable)
3) USC loses (probable)
4) UGA loses to LSU (assumption)
The only "probably not happening" case in that scenario is #4. If the assumption is LSU beats UGA though, then 3 SEC teams is not only a possibility, it's a probability.
This post was edited on 11/16/22 at 5:11 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:21 am to otowntiger
Lsu is a much better match up to Georgia than you think.our defense plays like they've been playing and Georgia will have their hands full.Perkins has opposing OC's having nightmares
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:25 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Let's break it down.
1) OSU-UofM loser drops behind LSU (probable)
2) TCU loses (probable)
3) USC loses (probable)
4) UGA loses to LSU (assumption)
The only "probably not happening" case in that scenario is #4. If the assumption is, LSU beats UGA though, 3 SEC teams is not only a possibility, it's a probability.
No matter how you break it down in your head, it remains far more possibility than probability. And I say that with the assumption, for the sake of the argument, that LSU beats Georgia. Assuming we a pass a 1 loss Michigan or OSU is not a safe one at all. But more than that is the unknown about how the committee would respond to a scenario in which they'd have to answer to picking 3 teams from the same conference.
I don't think it matters, as long as it's the 4 most deserving teams. But I'm not on the committee, and my gut tells me they don't want the backlash, and they can easily use our 2 losses and blowout loss to UT to defend their omission of LSU. Do I think it's impossible? Absolutely not. I've been surprised; even stunned, many times before.
I just think our best path is USC losing (Probable), and Maybe Michigan losing to Illinois and OSU, which would knock them out completely, and then TCU losing. I think that would be a situation where the committee wouldn't feel like it had to defend having 3 SEC teams. The Big 12 sucks, so I don't think we need TCU to lose twice. But we'll see. If the committee isn't worried about public perception, we might not need that much help.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:29 am to NC_Tigah
I think TCU would have to lose twice. They would probably put a one loss conference champion in over Tennessee who didn’t win their division
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:30 am to Metaloctopus
quote:
One thing I feel certain of, and I know it doesn't make any of us happy, is that LSU would not jump a 1 loss Tennessee. Because they beat us head to head; because it was so lopsided; and because Tennessee would have one less loss than us, I don't believe winning the SEC is going to put LSU past them.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:33 am to MrWalkingMan
So you can't make any logical argument against anything I said, but you think what I said was dumb.
You're the same guy who told me last August that the Braves would get swept by the Brewers if they met in the playoffs, when I told you the Braves were peaking and very dangerous.
You're the same guy who told me last August that the Braves would get swept by the Brewers if they met in the playoffs, when I told you the Braves were peaking and very dangerous.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:46 am to stopitnow1
Should they, based on merit and SOS? Hell yes.
Will they? Hell no. Not unless they really really have to.
Will they? Hell no. Not unless they really really have to.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:46 am to Metaloctopus
quote:That is not really even a debatable point.
Assuming we a pass a 1 loss Michigan or OSU is not a safe one at all.
LSU, as a 2L SEC Champion, would 100% outstrip a 1L OSU/UM sitting at home. The question in that instance is would Tennessee?
quote:Correct. So that story would be told in the final regular season CFP rankings. If the OSU/UM loser fell beneath Tennessee, I don't see how they jump them during a week in which neither played a game. That would leave OSU/UM #1, UGA/UT at 2&3, and LSU at 4.
But more than that is the unknown about how the committee would respond to a scenario in which they'd have to answer to picking 3 teams from the same conference.
Again, the incredulity here is not a 2L SEC Champion getting in over 1L teams. It is the simple fact that the 2L scenario assumes LSU beating UGA in ATL. Virtually no pundit sees that happening.
But if it did, LSU's strength as a team would have to be viewed in a whole different light.
This post was edited on 11/16/22 at 6:05 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:55 am to Metaloctopus
quote:
So you can't make any logical argument against anything I said, but you think what I said was dumb.
Why you said isn’t logical dumb frick. If there was no possibility to jump Tennessee then they wouldn’t slot LSU one spot behind Tennessee. They’d give themselves leeway and hold lsu back for the inevitable “I told ya so.” That we are one spot behind Tennessee is the committee prepping themselves to leap us over them with one more quality win. This has been seen before
This post was edited on 11/16/22 at 5:56 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 5:58 am to Metaloctopus
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/16/22 at 6:03 am
Posted on 11/16/22 at 6:04 am to stopitnow1
quote:
a big possibility this year.
Don't know about it being a "big possibility" but it is interesting.
Posted on 11/16/22 at 6:57 am to Metaloctopus
quote:
One thing I feel certain of, and I know it doesn't make any of us happy, is that LSU would not jump a 1 loss Tennessee. Because they beat us head to head; because it was so lopsided; and because Tennessee would have one less loss than us, I don't believe winning the SEC is going to put LSU past them. We can jump a 1 loss TCU, and perhaps a 1 loss Michigan/OSU (doubtful if it's OSU), but I don't see it with Tennessee.
Response 1
quote:
people who keep insisting "it'll never happen", need to stop speaking in absolutes. How many times have we heard something was never going to happen, and then it did?
Response 2
The only way the head to head logic can resolve this is all in or all out. All out is truly absurd, and all in is unlikely. All in requires a 2007 like season with multiple loss conference champions. TCU would have to lose 2. USC, Clemson, and NC would probably have to lose another too. Either conference championships matter or they don't. Letting 3 teams in, one which didn't make it's conference championship game, would make a mockery of championships matter.
They other scenario where three could get in, imo, is the committee wants to expedite the expanded playoff. You let 3 SEC teams in, you might get it next year.
So how do you resolve the circular problem? You have to drop one. The one that makes sense is the first one. The regular season game that had no impact on the SEC championship game participants.
But they beat the shite out of us! Well GA beat the shite out of them. Their only td was a pity td near the end. And I think they were pretty much full strength too.
When they beat us, they beat the chrysalis, not the butterfly that emerged. We didn't have our entire left side starting OL for most of the game. Perkins only played 9 snaps, and that Daniels was not the Daniels that we subsequently got (as an aside Daniels need to take another step forward in the passing game or this is just intellectual masturbation).
Bottom line, is if we win out, most likely TN is out. If we don't odds are good that they will make it. Overall, they're in a better space because they don't have to play GA again.
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